silly season - F1 2017 driver line up

Soldato
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Last update 16/01/2017

Mercedes AMG Petronas F1 Team
Lewis Hamilton
Valtteri Bottas - http://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/mercedes-confirms-bottas-as-hamilton-s-teammate-865891/?s=1

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Red Bull Racing
Daniel Ricciardio
Max Verstappen

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Scuderia Ferrari
Sebastian Vettel
Kimi Raikkonen - https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/headlines/2016/7/ferrari-confirm-raikkonen-for-2017.html

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Sahara Force India F1 Team
Sergia Perez - http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/126488
Esteban Ocon - http://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/force-india-signs-ocon-on-multi-year-deal-847808/?s=1

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McLaren Honda
Fernando Alonso
Stoffell Vandoorne - https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/...ck-vandoorne-partner-alonso-mclaren-2017.html

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Williams Martini Racing
Felipe Massa - http://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/massa-returns-to-f1-as-bottas-replacement-865853/?s=1
Lance Strol - https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2...18-year-old-driver-2017-f1-season-formula-one

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Haas F1 Team
Romain Grosjean - http://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/haas-confirms-magnussen-alongside-grosjean-for-2017-848803/?s=1
Kevin Magnussen - http://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/haas-confirms-magnussen-alongside-grosjean-for-2017-848803/?s=1

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Scuderia Toro Rosso
Carlos Sainz - https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/headlines/2016/6/f1-carlos-sainz-2017-toro-rosso-deal.html
Daniil Kvyat - https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/headlines/2016/10/toro-rosso-retain-kvyat-for-2017.html

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Renault Sport Formula One Team
Nico Hulkenberg - http://www.skysports.com/f1/news/24...oins-renault-for-2017-after-leaving-force-ind
Jolyon Palmer - http://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/p...ome-as-renault-confirms-2017-deal-847915/?s=1

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Sauber F1 Team
Marcus Ericsson - http://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/ericsson-stays-with-sauber-for-2017-f1-season-852403/?s=1
Pascal Wehrlein - http://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/sauber-agrees-wehrlein-deal-for-f1-2017-862405/?s=1

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Manor Racing MRT - Not participating in 2017 season http://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/manor-f1-team-to-close-after-no-buyer-found-868976/?s=1
unknown
unknown

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Current F1 drivers whose F1 future is highly uncertain
- Gutierrez

Current F1 drivers leaving
- Button


Green - Has contract
Yellow - TBC
Red - Unknown or at risk
 
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Soldato
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I think there's a half decent chance that Bottas will go to Renault. Williams would have surely confirmed him by now if they'd tied him down, so my view is that he's weighing up his options at the very least.

Grosjean who knows. He started the year as one of the form drivers but has spent the rest of the year complaining about the car. Clearly Haas were going to encounter problems in 2016, but they've done it back-to-front somewhat, and he clearly has zero confidence in the car (and given his heated exchanges, the safety of the car too). He's still destroyed a relatively quick Gutierrez, but will he want to risk more of the same in 2017? I think either he or Bottas will be racing against Magnussen in the Renault personally, and if Bottas gets the seat there's a half decent chance that Grosjean will be based at Grove.

I don't think Perez is quite as secure as some think either. He seems likely to stay at Force India, but I wouldn't be entirely shocked if he ended up at Williams if Bottas leaves. It could well end up in a fight between him and Grosjean for the lead driver at Williams, and I'd bet Perez would win (particularly if he brings Mexican sponsorship money).

Wehrlein would be a good candidate for Williams or Force India for a year, but there has been talk about Stroll replacing Massa, which would be somewhat out of the blue for me.

Ocon's not ready to move up to Renault if they are serious about getting into the top 10 next year. He's too rusty around the edges and while his pace hasn't been too bad against Wehrlein, his consistency (and frankly driving style) has been nowhere near (understandably given his limited races, but he still needs to improve before he's ready for a works drive). He needs another year in another car before he can be considered ready for a works team, unless Renault feel pressured that Mercedes will poach him.

I think Kyvat will start the year at Toro Rosso. If he continues to show inconsistency then they might promote Gasly.
 
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I think there's a half decent chance that Bottas will go to Renault. Williams would have surely confirmed him by now if they'd tied him down, so my view is that he's weighing up his options at the very least.

Grosjean who knows. He started the year as one of the form drivers but has spent the rest of the year complaining about the car. Clearly Haas were going to encounter problems in 2016, but they've done it back-to-front somewhat, and he clearly has zero confidence in the car (and given his heated exchanges, the safety of the car too). He's still destroyed a relatively quick Gutierrez, but will he want to risk more of the same in 2017? I think either he or Bottas will be racing against Magnussen in the Renault personally, and if Bottas gets the seat there's a half decent chance that Grosjean will be based at Grove.

I don't think Perez is quite as secure as some think either. He seems likely to stay at Force India, but I wouldn't be entirely shocked if he ended up at Williams if Bottas leaves. It could well end up in a fight between him and Grosjean for the lead driver at Williams, and I'd bet Perez would win (particularly if he brings Mexican sponsorship money).

Wehrlein would be a good candidate for Williams or Force India for a year, but there has been talk about Stroll replacing Massa, which would be somewhat out of the blue for me.

Ocon's not ready to move up to Renault if they are serious about getting into the top 10 next year. He's too rusty around the edges and while his pace hasn't been too bad against Wehrlein, his consistency (and frankly driving style) has been nowhere near (understandably given his limited races, but he still needs to improve before he's ready for a works drive). He needs another year in another car before he can be considered ready for a works team, unless Renault feel pressured that Mercedes will poach him.

I think Kyvat will start the year at Toro Rosso. If he continues to show inconsistency then they might promote Gasly.

Perez is already confirmed to be at force India next season was announced last Thursday I think.
 
Soldato
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2018 should be interesting. As Jenson said, he's the only McLaren driver with a 2018 contract at the moment!

Really hope he comes back, Im just not sure its likely

Has any (senior) driver ever come back after a year out from not driving at all (ignoring Kimi because he was driving, even if it wasnt in F1)

The other thing is - surely he would only come back if the car was decent (even if only theoretically in the Simulator) - and then surely Alonso / Vandoorne will want to drive it anyway.

There is a chance Vandoorne will fail next year and not get the chance in 2018 but is that likely?
 
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Really hope he comes back, Im just not sure its likely

Has any (senior) driver ever come back after a year out from not driving at all (ignoring Kimi because he was driving, even if it wasnt in F1)

Prost came back after a year out in 1992 to win the title in 1993, but he was rather lacklustre and Hill had the upper hand in the second half of the year.

And Schumacher, obviously.



Edit:
There is a chance Vandoorne will fail next year and not get the chance in 2018 but is that likely?

There's more chance that Alonso will leave than Vandoorne, unless McLaren manage to start challenging for podiums and a top spot doesn't open for him.
 
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Soldato
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Prost came back after a year out in 1992 to win the title in 1993, but he was rather lacklustre and Hill had the upper hand in the second half of the year.

And Schumacher, obviously.

Schumacher wasnt out for a full season, he won the title in 2000 after breaking his leg mid way through 99?

He effectively had 6 months off after the British GP in July and had a standard "pre-season" from Jan onwards

(not to mention the fact that he was still in his -late- 20's when he had the injury - so not even comparable in any way)
 
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Soldato
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Schumacher wasnt out for a full season, he won the title in 2000 after breaking his leg mid way through 99?

He effectively had 6 months off after the British GP in July and had a standard "pre-season" from Jan onwards

(not to mention the fact that he was still in his -late- 20's when he had the injury - so not even comparable in any way)

You never mentioned the title, you only asked if a senior driver had come back after a year out. I was referring to his comeback in 2010.
 
Soldato
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Really hope he comes back, Im just not sure its likely

Has any (senior) driver ever come back after a year out from not driving at all (ignoring Kimi because he was driving, even if it wasnt in F1)

The other thing is - surely he would only come back if the car was decent (even if only theoretically in the Simulator) - and then surely Alonso / Vandoorne will want to drive it anyway.

There is a chance Vandoorne will fail next year and not get the chance in 2018 but is that likely?

I think Jenson is likely to come back even if the car isn't good. Racing one more full season will give him the records for GP starts and entries, with 326 and 329 respectively (assuming a 20-race 2018 season).
 
Soldato
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Could have a lot to do with what he gets up to in his 'year off', if for example he gets a good seat in WEC and has a decent first year I'm not sure there's much reading to come back to F1 with nothing really to gain.

I'm not exactly sure what McLaren would gain either, it wouldn't exactly show much ambition and forward thinking.
 
Soldato
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Yeah, as much as Perez has improved I think Hulkenberg has lost a bit of his earlier promise and perhaps even become a little stale, sitting in the midfield year in year out.

A move to Renault, while an obvious step back in 2016, could well end up a top move. I doubt Force India has the budget to make the most of the rules changes (though that was the same in 2009 and Fisichella got a pole and would have won a race purely on pace were it not for Raikkonen's KERS).

Renault meanwhile should make a significant move forward - they're not suddenly leap frog half the field, but I'd bet they'll overtake Force India on pace as the year goes on.

I can fully understand him for taking a punt on a works Renault drive. They've surely got more potential in the long run and it could well give him the bump he needs.
 
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Yeah, as much as Perez has improved I think Hulkenberg has lost a bit of his earlier promise and perhaps even become a little stale, sitting in the midfield year in year out.

A move to Renault, while an obvious step back in 2016, could well end up a top move. I doubt Force India has the budget to make the most of the rules changes (though that was the same in 2009 and Fisichella got a pole and would have won a race purely on pace were it not for Raikkonen's KERS).

Renault meanwhile should make a significant move forward - they're not suddenly leap frog half the field, but I'd bet they'll overtake Force India on pace as the year goes on.

I can fully understand him for taking a punt on a works Renault drive. They've surely got more potential in the long run and it could well give him the bump he needs.

Totally agree with the prediction of Renault moving forward. They are a huge organisation and have had plenty of success in F1. I see them targeting key personnel from the likes of Mercedes. They have won there third constructors title in a row and maybe some of there designers and technical staff are ready for a new challenge. Renault could be the challenge they're looking for.
 
Soldato
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"Nico Hulkenberg is on the verge of finalising a switch to Renault next season"

http://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/hulkenberg-closes-on-renault-switch-for-2017-836768/

Unless it's a 3-4 year contract I think he is silly to go.

Looks like a 2 year deal possibly 3. Renault have to dig him out of his existing contract though. Given the Renault engine in the Red Bull this year and a completely redesigned 2017 Renault car, this could be a smart move for the Hulk.
Next questions are who will he replace? Palmer? and who will move into Force India? Another teenager?
Andi.
 
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