Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

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As far as nuclear stuff goes - haven't seen any activity around Russia from the US's Constant Phoenix fleet (aircraft for monitoring for that kind of activity) - normally if they were concerned about that kind of stuff they'd be out. Tons of ISR flights today though including a Rivet Joint having a cheeky look around the area Putin is supposedly holed up in.

Albeit the Constant Phoenix are more used to detect attempts at covert nuclear testing rather than activation of strategic forces which is something the Rivet Joints can pick up on.

I'd hazard from the military air traffic today the US is anticipating Putin may be close to making decision(s) which will significantly alter the situation with this war.
 
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Rroff said:
As far as nuclear stuff goes - haven't seen any activity around Russia from the US's Constant Phoenix fleet (aircraft for monitoring for that kind of activity) - normally if they were concerned about that kind of stuff they'd be out. Tons of ISR flights today though including a Rivet Joint having a cheeky look around the area Putin is supposedly holed up in.

Albeit the Constant Phoenix are more used to detect attempts at covert nuclear testing rather than activation of strategic forces which is something the Rivet Joints can pick up on.

I'd hazard from the military air traffic today the US is anticipating Putin may be close to making decision(s) which will significantly alter the situation with this war.
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I hope he sees sense and backs down here, the damage is bad but not irreversible, though Russia will be paying for damages for a long time to come, or isolating themselves economically and becoming a pariah state.

West won't give up Ukraine, so he either needs to escalate or stand down. I don't think Russia can win this conventionally anymore. So hopefully the threat of ramifications from the US is enough to put him off the idea of using nukes.

If Russia backs down then Putin being ousted should be a condition for restoring ties with the west, but this whole thing has ruined Russian reputation and reliability for many years to come, companies aren't going to invest in Russia whilst it's unstable to do so.
 
HungryHippos said:
I hope he sees sense and backs down here, the damage is bad but not irreversible, though Russia will be paying for damages for a long time to come, or isolating themselves economically and becoming a pariah state.

West won't give up Ukraine, so he either needs to escalate or stand down. I don't think Russia can win this conventionally anymore. So hopefully the threat of ramifications from the US is enough to put him off the idea of using nukes.

If Russia backs down then Putin being ousted should be a condition for restoring ties with the west, but this whole thing has ruined Russian reputation and reliability for many years to come, companies aren't going to invest in Russia whilst it's unstable to do so.
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Putin won't accept any condition where he is ousted, he can't for the security of his family, etc. if he did it would be a puppet under his control.

One problem for Putin - the activation of nuclear forces either strategic or tactical but especially strategic (and in some cases there isn't really a defined line) is going to have many other countries twitchy, even if they were intended for use in Ukraine - it wouldn't be unreasonable to assume it might be subterfuge to use them against someone else in a first strike raising the possibility of another country deciding to strike first, even China, before Russia uses theirs.
 
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  • Kremlin, Asked About Contacts With US Over Nuclear Weapons, Says There Are Channels for Dialogue but They Are Sporadic
 
Rroff said:
Putin won't accept any condition where he is ousted, he can't for the security of his family, etc. if he did it would be a puppet under his control.

One problem for Putin - the activation of nuclear forces either strategic or tactical but especially strategic (and in some cases there isn't really a defined line) is going to have many other countries twitchy, even if they were intended for use in Ukraine - it wouldn't be unreasonable to assume it might be subterfuge to use them against someone else in a first strike raising the possibility of another country deciding to strike first, even China, before Russia uses theirs.
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But if Russia uses them on someone else, then by definition they are the first ones to strike, so someone else can't strike first?

I agree Putin won't want to fall from power easily, but the remaining hope is the upper management take him out, because that opens up paths to peace.
 
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Putin rumoured to be somewhere around where it say Valday on the right of the image. Various NATO aircraft have been sniffing around Latvia roughly adjacent to there all day - not usual runs for most of them.
 
School shooting in Russia, at least 13 dead. :(

www.bbc.co.uk

Deadly gun attack at Russian school

At least 17 people - including 11 children - are killed when a gunman opens fire at a school in Izhevsk.
www.bbc.co.uk www.bbc.co.uk

Putin should root out their own Nazis before invading his neighbouring country.

A video posted online by the investigative committee shows the gunman lying dead on the floor wearing a T-shirt with a Nazi symbol and a balaclava. Investigators are searching his place of residence.
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EGuitarStar said:
School shooting in Russia, at least 13 dead. :(

www.bbc.co.uk

Deadly gun attack at Russian school

At least 17 people - including 11 children - are killed when a gunman opens fire at a school in Izhevsk.
www.bbc.co.uk www.bbc.co.uk

Putin should root out their own Nazis before invading his neighbouring country.
Click to expand...
What’s the odds in a few days the FSB miraculously find a Ukrainian passport
 
EGuitarStar said:
School shooting in Russia, at least 13 dead. :(

www.bbc.co.uk

Deadly gun attack at Russian school

At least 17 people - including 11 children - are killed when a gunman opens fire at a school in Izhevsk.
www.bbc.co.uk www.bbc.co.uk

Putin should root out their own Nazis before invading his neighbouring country.
Click to expand...

False flag operation to scare people into thinking they're being attacked by Ukrainian nazis.

Oldest trick in the book.
 
They've named the shooter as Artem Kazantsev, can't find any more details about them. I hope they don't try this as a false flag operation, no one will believe them and they've just killed a bunch of innocent children and adults.
 
HungryHippos said:
False flag operation to scare people into thinking they're being attacked by Ukrainian nazis.

Oldest trick in the book.
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False flag for what though? You can never tell with this bunch of gangsters but I think this will get played off as genuine tragedy, I can't see what kind of political capital Russia can get out of this.
 
Rroff said:
it wouldn't be unreasonable to assume it might be subterfuge to use them against someone else in a first strike raising the possibility of another country deciding to strike first, even China, before Russia uses theirs.
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I think you're getting well into the realms of fantasy here, firstly Russia has a huge nuclear arsenal including subs and mobile ground-based launchers, it would be very difficult if not near impossible for the even US to attempt to strike and take out all of them without likely risking MAD in the process, China has a more modest arsenal and far less conventional capability, it would have pretty much no chance, it would be suicidal.

Not to mention they don't really have any motivation to do so and they have an explicit no first strike policy.
 
Swastika on the T-shirt apparently. That's even more genius than we thought, non descript invasion of the Russian Psyche.
 
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