Would the EU survive brexit

.Lethal · 12 May 2016 at 17:20

OldCoals said:
The EU is terrified of the later.

Terrified? You're right but I wouldn't think the EU is terrified over it.

Tom0 said:
Germany will eat all the pie.

Other countries will be mad.

Where it goes from there.. Who knows.

Merkel has been doing this for years.

Chris Wilson · 12 May 2016 at 17:20

I like the analogy with FIFA, neat!

Ocean Breeze · 12 May 2016 at 18:17

EU will survive once they see the UK getting pinged about like a pinball between all the superpowers and having zero influence in a globalised world.

twist3d0n3 · 12 May 2016 at 18:32

amigafan2003 said:
It'll survive and get stronger when member states see how ****** up and a **** hole the UK becomes when it leaves.

sometimes i wish we could split the country right down the middle and stick people like the above on one side and the rest of us on the other. then just see what would happen.

as for the OPs question, it'll probably disolve post brexit, but if we were to stay, it would be a slow simmer of ****.

Malevolence · 12 May 2016 at 18:35

NinjaSeb said:
EU will survive once they see the UK getting pinged about like a pinball between all the superpowers and having zero influence in a globalised world.

Where the hell do you and the rest of your deluded ilk pull this **** from? Don't you ever read it back to yourself and see just how stupid what you're saying actually is?

Nix · 12 May 2016 at 18:48

billysielu said:
I'm voting Leave, one of the reasons is I think the EU will collapse eventually regardless of whether we're in it or not - because it is corrupt - the further we get from it the better we can restrict the effect that collapse has on us.

If the EU collapses, it won't matter if we're in it or not. No distance will shelter us from the economic fallout.

If the UK leaves, it will certainly be undermining the EU heavily. We're better off staying in and trying to effect change that way.

Besides, with China's GDP finally stalling, I can see a rough ride in the immediate future as it is. We don't need the EU faltering on top of that.

Varoufakis is bang on the money.

https://youtu.be/mIjfyGIO4xA?t=2m10s

dowie · 12 May 2016 at 18:49

amigafan2003 said:
It'll survive and get stronger when member states see how ****** up and a **** hole the UK becomes when it leaves.

rather unlikely, the UK could well take a hit short term but long term we're likely to catch up with Germany whether in or out of the EU

which means whichever decision we make people are going to turn around in future and claim we made the right one by staying in Europe/going it alone

Kenai · 12 May 2016 at 18:50

I think survival of the EU would depend heavily on how they balance the idea of "make life difficult for the leaver, impose trade tariffs, enforce things like free movement still" versus "UK trade etc still has value to us, let's not be overly harsh".

If they could afford to make our lives difficult to dissuade others without hurting their own interests too much, they could very well make us into a negative example.

I certainly don't see them making life easy in the case of a split, otherwise they may as well explicitly encourage everyone else to leave and get their own individually beneficial agreements.

Ocean Breeze · 12 May 2016 at 18:53

Malevolence said:
Where the hell do you and the rest of your deluded ilk pull this **** from? Don't you ever read it back to yourself and see just how stupid what you're saying actually is?

It's not stupid, it just doesn't match your opinion.

Have you ever seen Norway and Switzerland able to throw their weight around on a world stage..no.

dowie · 12 May 2016 at 18:59

h4rm0ny said:
When was the Argentinian default? About twenty years ago? It still doesn't seem to have recovered. In fact they were trying to nationalize the assets of a Spanish company not long ago, iirc.

why look to the other side of the world for an example when there is a European country you could look to?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/06/17/the-miraculous-story-of-iceland/

So Iceland had a bigger financial crisis, did more austerity, and had higher interest rates than Ireland, but has still managed to recover more. How is that possible? Well, it's not just that Iceland let its banks go bust, while Ireland bailed its out. Reality is a little more complicated. It's true that Ireland ran up a lot of debt guaranteeing its banks, but it's also true that it restructured that debt in 2013 in a way that effectively cut 40 percent of it. That's a quiet default, or at least half of one.

No, the biggest difference between the two is that Iceland has its own currency and Ireland has the euro.

dowie · 12 May 2016 at 19:01

John40 said:
We ain't going anywhere you can be sure of that, Cameron will not take us out whatever happens.

I don't think you understand how this referendum thing works... Cameron won't be PM for long if he loses so technically you're probably right in so far as Cameron will not take us out however the PM to replace him will almost certainly be someone in favour of Brexit so you're likely very wrong to claim 'We ain't going anywhere you can be sure of that' - if we vote to leave we're leaving....

Malevolence · 12 May 2016 at 19:03

NinjaSeb said:
It's not stupid, it just doesn't match your opinion.

Have you ever seen Norway and Switzerland able to throw their weight around on a world stage..no.

Are Norway and Switzerland one of the five permanent members of the UN security council? Are they members of the G8? Are they members of the G20? Are they one of the nine nuclear armed countries? Do they possess the World's 5th largest economy?

I could go on, but you get the point.

ReltonBFD · 12 May 2016 at 19:23

Malevolence said:
Are Norway and Switzerland one of the five permanent members of the UN security council? Are they members of the G8? Are they members of the G20? Are they one of the nine nuclear armed countries? Do they possess the World's 5th largest economy?

I could go on, but you get the point.

Spot on.

Ocean Breeze · 12 May 2016 at 19:23

Malevolence said:
Are Norway and Switzerland one of the five permanent members of the UN security council? Are they members of the G8? Are they members of the G20? Are they one of the nine nuclear armed countries? Do they possess the World's 5th largest economy?

I could go on, but you get the point.

Despite not being in the EU they are still linked and affected by everything that goes on. You cannot run, hide and prosper as a lot of people believe.

For example with migration Norway and Switzerland are fully integrated into the EU’s free movement rules, and the EU has repeatedly made it clear that free movement of people is the price that must be paid for access to the single market. Norway is in the European Economic Area and must abide by the EU free movement rules, but has no vote on them.

May as well just be in the EU to be able to change and influence things..

FutileBreadMachine · 12 May 2016 at 19:30

Malevolence said:
Are Norway and Switzerland one of the five permanent members of the UN security council? Are they members of the G8? Are they members of the G20? Are they one of the nine nuclear armed countries? Do they possess the World's 5th largest economy?

I could go on, but you get the point.

lol rekt

Insanties_birth · 12 May 2016 at 19:31

Techno_Viking said:
For me, I'm out. For many reasons, however let's just look at other countries within the European region that are not part of the EU, namely; Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland. Are these countries cut off from the rest of the world with poor prospects? Are they missing out by not being in the EU?

The answer is no, they have their own agreements on trade and immigration and seem to be doing just fine, so why can't we?

Just look at any studies into the happiest or most prosperous countries to live and these are always at the top.

^ This.

The question is quite contrived considering we can see there is clear evidence of several other countries doing fine outside the EU. Is Britain somehow more linked to the the EU than these countries and so would suffer a huge backlash and problems? No. I don't envision any cataclysmic loss, I agree with others it could cause some issues with economic uncertainty for a short while but for 2 years we'll still be under the EU rules during the divorce period anyway so hopefully they can reassure businesses during that period. Whether we have large business movement due to the exit is yet to be seen, I don't foresee them wanting to add the additional costs and more than likely it'd be a slow process of them giving it a bit of wait and see behaviour rather than jumping ship early. Some might move early but I don't forsee a mass exodus.

If anything our leaving the EU might just cause a little uncertainty and at least deter some of the heavy immigration

Won't work for long though when they remember britain is a soft touch and all the lefties start trying to bend over more

To answer the question even more directly, yeah, I'm pretty sure we'd survive.

Terminal_Boy · 12 May 2016 at 19:34

NinjaSeb said:
May as well just be in the EU to be able to change and influence things..

I'm trying to remember when the UK manage to change or influence anything related to the EU.

Nope, drawing a complete blank.

John40 · 12 May 2016 at 19:43

dowie said:
I don't think you understand how this referendum thing works... Cameron won't be PM for long if he loses so technically you're probably right in so far as Cameron will not take us out however the PM to replace him will almost certainly be someone in favour of Brexit so you're likely very wrong to claim 'We ain't going anywhere you can be sure of that' - if we vote to leave we're leaving....

So you think if it's an Out by 2 or 3% we'll immediately leave no second referendum, no new offer from Europe - get real.
Europe will just watch us walk away will they ? they will be in mass panic mode, they will offer almost anything and we''l have a second vote and it will be easily enough to turn it round.

Mr-White · 12 May 2016 at 19:44

What is brexit, its on the news all the time, sounds like some cheap detergent ?

Chris Wilson · 12 May 2016 at 19:51

Malevolence said:
Are Norway and Switzerland one of the five permanent members of the UN security council? Are they members of the G8? Are they members of the G20? Are they one of the nine nuclear armed countries? Do they possess the World's 5th largest economy?

I could go on, but you get the point.

Good man, well said.