Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)

[PhysicsMan94]

Considering shorting the dollar, lots of people are long USD but I think they'll get burned in the medium-long run. It looks increasingly likely that the December rate "hike" by the Fed was a one and done event - I'd be very surprised if they increased rates again this year, they saw what happened shortly after they did so the last time and it has become very apparent that their only goal is to keep the equity markets high (they couldn't care less about the fundamentals of the economy).

USD index increased today however I'm not so sure that it will be part of any sustained move upwards, it's still below 93 and I can see it dropping fast to around the 86 level over the next couple of months. The markets are slowly beginning to realise that rates probably won't go up this year at all now, and that will be priced into the dollar I reckon...

 

[moon man]

infact heres all my silver shorts last couple of days (first figure profit)


Short
Silver
£‪23,922.59‬
$‪3,467,474‬
Open: 17.582
Close: 17.407
£‪0.00‬
£‪0.00‬
03/05/2016
15:26
Profit call

Short
Silver
£‪1,226.18‬
$‪3,502,135‬
Open: 17.59
Close: 17.581
£‪0.00‬
£‪0.00‬
03/05/2016
13:46
User closed

Short
Silver
£‪490.20‬
$‪4,228,080‬
Open: 17.62
Close: 17.617
£‪0.00‬
£‪0.00‬
03/05/2016
11:31
User closed

Short
Silver
£‪1,813.28‬
$‪3,345,618‬
Open: 17.604
Close: 17.59
£‪0.00‬
£‪0.00‬
03/05/2016
11:05
User closed

Short
Silver
£‪2,854.87‬
$‪4,223,040‬
Open: 17.614
Close: 17.596
£‪0.00‬
£‪-89.31‬
03/05/2016
05:47
User closed

Short
Silver
£‪949.58‬
$‪1,068,196‬
Open: 17.65
Close: 17.627
£‪0.00‬
£‪0.00‬
02/05/2016
18:37
User closed

 

[Simon]

Impressive

 

[dowie]

1 1/2 hours trading cfds today not a bad result selling short with shed loads of leverage

that is generally not a good idea, you should probably treat the sim as though it is your real account, if they've given you some silly balance then adjust accordingly in terms of the % you risk on each trade

Also are you using one of those providers where you're given a two way quote i.e. just like spreadbetting? It probably isn't a good idea to try intraday trading for a handful of ticks in that case - you seem to have got out for anything between 5 and 20 something in those trades but you're presumably crossing a spread that is two or three ticks wide to begin with and against a counterparty who can decide to slip your order any time it suits them when the price is moving rapidly.

 

[moon man]

that is generally not a good idea, you should probably treat the sim as though it is your real account, if they've given you some silly balance then adjust accordingly in terms of the % you risk on each trade

Also are you using one of those providers where you're given a two way quote i.e. just like spreadbetting? It probably isn't a good idea to try intraday trading for a handful of ticks in that case - you seem to have got out for anything between 5 and 20 something in those trades but you're presumably crossing a spread that is two or three ticks wide to begin with and against a counterparty who can decide to slip your order any time it suits them when the price is moving rapidly.

yeh see your point ,risk management ect using plus 500 but they have very vague no scalping rules but some of my best trades have been 20 seconds and i dont think they would be allowed , but if you go beyond a day you are charged a fee.
the only price i see is buy or sell but im a bit of a newbie to this (though did manage to make and lose 12k in real shares a long time ago)
for some reason im not as successful with trading 212 dont know why so id love to find the plus 500 style of platform with scalping allowed and where losses cant exceed deposits

 

[moon man]

Impressive

thanks , its only demo money though when i get to use the real thing my nerve may crumble !

 

[dowie]

yeh see your point ,risk management ect using plus 500 but they have very vague no scalping rules but some of my best trades have been 20 seconds and i dont think they would be allowed , but if you go beyond a day you are charged a fee.
the only price i see is buy or sell but im a bit of a newbie to this (though did manage to make and lose 12k in real shares a long time ago)

the vague no scalping rule is quite standard for bucket shops like that because they're providing their own quotes on a whole range of instruments and there is a risk these might lag slightly and someone with a separate datafeed might pick them off or arb against another provider - though this was probably more common a few years ago than today (there are also probably a few issues in cases where you're trading at a size where they'd want to hedge)

it isn't so much that they don't want people to trade frequently(at least in the case of most clients) if you're having to cross their spread each time (which in silver is presumably going to be a few ticks wide) then the more frequently you trade the quicker you'll lose money to them

for some reason im not as successful with trading 212 dont know why so id love to find the plus 500 style of platform with scalping allowed and where losses cant exceed deposits

that is probably just chance/luck - a sim at one bucket shop vs another won't make too much difference, you've just been luckier at plus500

if you want to 'scalp' then you'd be better off trading with an actual exchange or an ECN - though if you're using leverage then losses can exceed deposits. Some bucket shops offer guaranteed stops but you'll have to pay for them. You're unlikely to find an edge these days scalping on a real exchange - most 'locals' these days(the people who trade futures intraday for a living) will hold their positions for longer than they used to, there are plenty of HFT firms out there and the more obvious low hanging fruit will be picked off much more efficiently by an algorithm on a server at the exchange before you even get to see it.

 

[moon man]

Cheers ,very informative reply ,bit worried about the bucket shop term

 

[silversurfer]

Banned in USA but I think thats because they have Chicago options and favour that. It used to be a dodgy area but in UK at least it works ok I think, lots of competition and overview. Deposits in a SB firm are protected like a bank deposit for example even the rolling trades/margins etc.

Practise account balance 100,000. Real account 1,000 means increase all your trades by 100x size to be realistic

 

[dowie]

Banned in USA but I think thats because they have Chicago options and favour that.

no, absolutely nothing to do with that. Options are traded in the UK too....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bucket_shop_(stock_market)

 

[Walkerie]

Did anyone buy into Hotel Chocolat this morning? I missed out but thinking of getting some this afternoon.

 

[peterwalkley]

Did anyone buy into Hotel Chocolat this morning? I missed out but thinking of getting some this afternoon.

Was tempted as I'm a regular customer, but other stuff distracted me so I never got round to it.

I will look in a couple of months once its settled down. Aftermath of a float is often messy with people flipping the shares.

 

[mattyg]

The thread is supposed to be a discussion of the subject, random comments about having made a quick win or loss add nothing other than noise.

Ooh good.. Here's something to discuss. Something popped up on facebook of all places and an article in a red top online article about Binary options. It peaked my interest...


So onto the discussion. I had a little win on the euromillions this week so opened an account with 24option.com and deposited £250. Now I know naff all about this. So this is just an experiment.

Apart from "withdraw your cash now" has anyone got any other advise.

 

[dowie]

nope - 'withdraw your cash' is solid advice!

binary options aimed at retail punters are a huge rip off in general

and you've got additional worries due to this:

'AUTHORIZED AND REGULATED BY THE CYPRUS SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION'

 

[peterwalkley]

That would be the same Cyprus who imposed capital controls and a forced haircut of everyone's bank accounts a few years back when the brown smelly stuff hit the round spinny thing in the financial crisis.

There are people who can make money on options as retail investors, but they are doing it off the other 99%. You can treat that £250 quid as a price of learning a lesson, or as dowie says, withdraw it.

If you are serious about learning, google 'Al Brooks' - he's written some very detailed books on price action, and further back in this thread there's also some technical analysis books recommended (by dowie I think).

If you are going to make a trade, the leverage is what kills your account. A £1 trade going 250 points in the wrong direction will wipe you out. A £10 trade will do it in 25 points. Those are perfectly possible movements in many markets during the day. Bear this in mind if your bank account is linked to the provider ... it could easily be more than £250 quid learning fee.

If you really want to learn: practise with a demo account for a while just to get used to the mechanics of it if nothing else.

EDIT: Final thought. If you turn out to be one of the 1%, profits from options trading are liable for capital gains tax. You would be better going for spreadbetting which isn't - even though the cost to trade is marginally higher.

 

[silversurfer]

The oversight on UK firms is sometimes useful is all I can say.

Closing out Williams companies as it is a bit of a risky hold and Im still not sure what is happening with their merger. I presume it will proceed and be quite profitable (kinda like BG) but so much debt and I guess the majority of this Oil price rise is done already here for this year. BG was merging at much lower prices, that was a good buy/hold as it turned out

Hate to be the guy who closes good holds too early but I did reduce rather then close earlier and Im too heavy commodity with a world gdp not seeing great growth prospects. Seems fair to take profits, my limit was $25 and Ive put a trailing stop on todays rise so I'll not likely get close to that now. If it gets there in the next week I will be not happy lol

https://simplywall.st/NYSE:WMB/williams-companies#historical-debt
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3978421-williams-bizarre-merger-marches

Buffet holds Apple now ? I'd rather have them at 75 85 maybe when people less optimistic, still not sure if they going to maintain growth long term. I think they are a bit risky on that but still cheap if that makes any sense
I think its his deputies, the same who wanted to have IBM which only did relatively well while they were still buying in afaik

China joins the MSCI world index is apparently some positive today

 

[PwnDirect]

Anybody using " Degiro " ? opinions please

 

[dowie]

looks interesting... especially if in future they offer spread betting with limit orders/access to the LSE etc..

not sure how feasible that is due to gambling tax and whether clients would have to agree to pay it

 

[danielanthony]

Not a bad return after a month:

Don't think I'm going to make millions but £5k per month would be nice.

 

[Elixir]

Okay OcUK investment team, how do we take advantage of this?

Presumably the markets will overreact and we can reap the rewards so we've got loads of money to spend in the new, improved, independent UK?