Brexit thread - what happens next

Jokester · 31 Jul 2016 at 14:52

killiebrad said:
wrong 1 set of polls out of 10 showing a lead to remain that poll was for Scotland in the Union and they were heavily weighted

Over half were over 50 years old, no 16/17 year old polled.

The poll was heavily weighted – 414 Yes voters, 506 no voters.

The birthplace of the people polled.
Scotland: 748
Rest of the UK: 200
Outside UK: 58

Looks like they got the result they wanted.

What about the YouGov poll that said the same thing?

killiebrad · 31 Jul 2016 at 15:05

delta0 said:
The majority of Scots want to stay in the UK. This vote won't happen for another 25 years if it does. It isn't a once a year thing until we get the "right" answer. You really don't want to leave and rejoin the EU it will be the worst position for Scotland to be in.

as my post above states 9 polls out of 10 have Yes well ahead and the 1 poll against was heavily weighted by the people who organised the poll "Scotland in the Union" ... the UK is finished and it will be lucky if it continues for another 2 years

Tefal said:
But the EU doesn't want scotland.

They've been quite vocal on that point

that would be from impartial sources like the daily mail, Telegraph and Express please

Spanish foreign minister on Scottish Independence expects Scotland to have another referendum and remain in the EU

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p8nUihThick

StriderX said:
The EU couldnt afford it and neither can Scotland, the EU can't even afford about half its members being there... including two founder states.

Its really funny honestly.

seriously you haven't a clue when it comes to Scottish Economics Scotland makes up 14% of the UK's entire exports with 8.3% of the population or £79 Billion out of the entire UK's £564 billion in exports, Scotland contributes 9.9% of the UK's taxes and receives 9.3% of the UK's taxes via the barnett formula

the so called figures touted by IFS (founded by Lord Astor) & GERS (founded by the Tory Party) are hardly impartial when you consider that in those figures they quote is Scottish taxpayers continuing paying for over £2 trillion worth of Capital Projects in England ... and then their is the fact that this year the UK trade deficit is over £80 billion and having to borrow a further £70 billion ... i would be more worried about remaining in the UK ... who is Heathrows single biggest customer ... Scottish Salmon

killiebrad · 31 Jul 2016 at 15:06

Jokester said:
What about the YouGov poll that said the same thing?

that is the Yougov poll "Scotland in the Union" paid yougov for the poll SITU sets out the question and the guidelines on who is polled

Jokester · 31 Jul 2016 at 15:09

killiebrad said:
that is the Yougov poll "Scotland in the Union" paid yougov for the poll

Except, it's not. The figures are different, but the jist is the same. There hasn't been a swing towards Scottish Independence as a result of Brexit.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics...-scottish-independence-since-brexit-vote-poll

1006 polled
463 remain
372 leave

delta0 · 31 Jul 2016 at 15:27

killiebrad said:
as my post above states 9 polls out of 10 have Yes well ahead and the 1 poll against was heavily weighted by the people who organised the poll "Scotland in the Union" ... the UK is finished and it will be lucky if it continues for another 2 years

that would be from impartial sources like the daily mail, Telegraph and Express please

Spanish foreign minister on Scottish Independence expects Scotland to have another referendum and remain in the EU

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p8nUihThick

seriously you haven't a clue when it comes to Scottish Economics Scotland makes up 14% of the UK's entire exports with 8.3% of the population or £79 Billion out of the entire UK's £564 billion in exports, Scotland contributes 9.9% of the UK's taxes and receives 9.3% of the UK's taxes via the barnett formula

the so called figures touted by IFS (founded by Lord Astor) & GERS (founded by the Tory Party) are hardly impartial when you consider that in those figures they quote is Scottish taxpayers continuing paying for over £2 trillion worth of Capital Projects in England ... and then their is the fact that this year the UK trade deficit is over £80 billion and having to borrow a further £70 billion ... i would be more worried about remaining in the UK ... who is Heathrows single biggest customer ... Scottish Salmon

Not anymore. There isn't a single independent poll that puts leaving the UK as even remotely close to stay never mind ahead. Seriously Scotland will be completely screwed if it left. Oil is worth nothing now. Scotland will be another Greece in no time. The best action now is to stick with the UK and look to gain from the trade agreements that will inevitably come from around the world. We can continue to trade with the EU but also enhance what we do with the rest of the world. I wouldn't be surprised to see the UK continue to be the greatest growing country in Europe and also begin to grow more as it expands other trade. The UK is quite aggressive economically and this won't be good for Scotland outside the Union. Joining the EU means going into a position that is far further integrated than we are now. You will have to take the Euro and have your financial support from the ECB. You will have a lot less freedom now. The EU will completely shaft Scotland.

killiebrad · 31 Jul 2016 at 15:39

Jokester said:
Except, it's not. The figures are different, but the jist is the same. There hasn't been a swing towards Scottish Independence as a result of Brexit.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics...-scottish-independence-since-brexit-vote-poll

1006 polled
463 remain
372 leave

it is the same poll it was called by Scotland in the Union

killiebrad · 31 Jul 2016 at 15:42

delta0 said:
Not anymore. There isn't a single independent poll that puts leaving the UK as even remotely close to stay never mind ahead. Seriously Scotland will be completely screwed if it left. Oil is worth nothing now. Scotland will be another Greece in no time. The best action now is to stick with the UK and look to gain from the trade agreements that will inevitably come from around the world. We can continue to trade with the EU but also enhance what we do with the rest of the world. I wouldn't be surprised to see the UK continue to be the greatest growing country in Europe and also begin to grow more as it expands other trade. The UK is quite aggressive economically and this won't be good for Scotland outside the Union. Joining the EU means going into a position that is far further integrated than we are now. You will have to take the Euro and have your financial support from the ECB. You will have a lot less freedom now. The EU will completely shaft Scotland.

so the Sunday post never had Yes at 59% and the daily record 53%, Press & Journal at 54% and that is just off the top of my head ... as i said you haven't a clue about the Scottish economy ... if our economy was so dire as you claim then you would think the UK would be desperate to get rid of us ... a lot less freedom than now you are having a laugh we have no control over our economy, we have little control on welfare, no control over pensions, defence, foreign policy etc

Hagar · 31 Jul 2016 at 15:47

delta0 said:
Not anymore. There isn't a single independent poll that puts leaving the UK as even remotely close to stay never mind ahead. Seriously Scotland will be completely screwed if it left. Oil is worth nothing now. Scotland will be another Greece in no time. The best action now is to stick with the UK and look to gain from the trade agreements that will inevitably come from around the world. We can continue to trade with the EU but also enhance what we do with the rest of the world. I wouldn't be surprised to see the UK continue to be the greatest growing country in Europe and also begin to grow more as it expands other trade. The UK is quite aggressive economically and this won't be good for Scotland outside the Union. Joining the EU means going into a position that is far further integrated than we are now. You will have to take the Euro and have your financial support from the ECB. You will have a lot less freedom now. The EU will completely shaft Scotland.

I agree and this time I am sure that all expatriate Scots working and living in the UK and elsewhere would be expecting to vote

killiebrad · 31 Jul 2016 at 15:53

nkata said:
I agree and this time I am sure that all expatriate Scots working and living in the UK and elsewhere would be expecting to vote

they won't get a vote they no longer live and work in Scotland

their has only 1 poll been done the past two weeks and that is from the poll revealed on Friday night from YouGov

Hagar · 31 Jul 2016 at 16:28

killiebrad said:
they won't get a vote they no longer live and work in Scotland

their has only 1 poll been done the past two weeks and that is from the poll revealed on Friday night from YouGov

So as last time?

The following groups are entitled to be on the electoral register for the referendum (16 and above):

~ British citizens resident in Scotland.
~ Commonwealth citizens resident in Scotland who have leave to reman in the UK or do not require such leave.
~ Citizens of the Republic of Ireland and other EU countries resident in Scotland.
~ Members of the House of Lords resident in Scotland.
~ Service personnel serving in the UK or overseas with the armed forces who are registered to vote in Scotland.
~ Crown personnel serving outside the UK with HM Government who are registered to vote in Scotland.

Seems a little unfair to expatriate Scots as this will mean not only leaving the UK, but joining the EU as an independant country with a new currency, a whole new ball game.

killiebrad · 31 Jul 2016 at 17:01

nkata said:
So as last time?

The following groups are entitled to be on the electoral register for the referendum (16 and above):

~ British citizens resident in Scotland.
~ Commonwealth citizens resident in Scotland who have leave to reman in the UK or do not require such leave.
~ Citizens of the Republic of Ireland and other EU countries resident in Scotland.
~ Members of the House of Lords resident in Scotland.
~ Service personnel serving in the UK or overseas with the armed forces who are registered to vote in Scotland.
~ Crown personnel serving outside the UK with HM Government who are registered to vote in Scotland.

Seems a little unfair to expatriate Scots as this will mean not only leaving the UK, but joining the EU as an independant country with a new currency, a whole new ball game.

that's exactly how it will go and like last time 16 year olds will be allowed to vote hence the poll done by YouGov on behalf of Scotland in the Union was a loaded poll as it did not include 16 or 17 year olds and top heavy with over 50 age group

wb2816 · 1 Aug 2016 at 09:02

What's next ? Trump becomes president and turn the country into a totalitarian state. There will be more referendums next years. The Union will consist of poor West countries and some developed states. Then the already mutually completely interdependent economies collapse will start.

Schlong&Stable · 1 Aug 2016 at 09:43

killiebrad said:
so the Sunday post never had Yes at 59% and the daily record 53%, Press & Journal at 54% and that is just off the top of my head ... as i said you haven't a clue about the Scottish economy ... if our economy was so dire as you claim then you would think the UK would be desperate to get rid of us ... a lot less freedom than now you are having a laugh we have no control over our economy, we have little control on welfare, no control over pensions, defence, foreign policy etc

There is no "you" and "we", we're all British so it's the same economy. But yes, "Scotland's economy" is in dire straits right now due to the collapse in oil prices. If Scotland were independent today, it would have its begging bowl out.

And if there were Scottish secession, why should it stop there? Should someone living on the Shetland Isles not also want control of their economy, pensions, defence and foreign policy? Although it's all moot since the SNP are wanting to hand all that control over to Brussels, which defies any logic whatsoever.

And please note, I am Scottish not English.

Narj · 1 Aug 2016 at 10:21

Thompson_NCL said:
There is no "you" and "we", we're all British so it's the same economy. But yes, "Scotland's economy" is in dire straits right now due to the collapse in oil prices. If Scotland were independent today, it would have its begging bowl out.

Well quite, this is the point of a "united" kingdom. We help each other out and in theory all benefit from prosperity from any of the member countries. Wealth redistribution on this scale makes sense IMO.

I'd have said the same about the EU if it hadn't turned into an expansionist behemoth.

Muz333 · 1 Aug 2016 at 11:34

If Scotland went independent we would doom ourselves to be nothing more than a small poverty ridden country.

I have no doubt if another referendum came about we'd still vote to sensibly stay in the UK.

Schlong&Stable · 1 Aug 2016 at 12:04

Muz333 said:
If Scotland went independent we would doom ourselves to be nothing more than a small poverty ridden country.

I have no doubt if another referendum came about we'd still vote to sensibly stay in the UK.

Well Scotland's economics as an independent country would be dictated entirely by oil prices, like Norway, who are having to cut back on welfare now due to the decline in oil. A sustained drop in oil prices would inevitably hamstring Scotland with debt for years if not decades.

As part of the Union they can weather the low oil price without accumulating high debts. When oil prices rebound (assuming they do of course) they will start to be a net contributor once again. That is the strength of our union. The EU has no such strength as we saw when poor Greece was "bailed out" by a vengeful Northern Europe.

I wouldn't say there is no argument for secession, but the argument put forward by the SNP is deeply flawed on many levels: the economics don't make sense, the politics don't make sense and the fundamentals of their argument don't make sense.

If I was a Scottish nationalist, I'd not have anything to do with the SNP.

yonderblue · 1 Aug 2016 at 13:01

It's like the Daily Mail comment section on this brexit thread, The amount of havering mince talked about Scotland is incredible.

Schlong&Stable · 1 Aug 2016 at 13:52

yonderblue said:
It's like the Daily Mail comment section on this brexit thread, The amount of havering mince talked about Scotland is incredible.

Heaven forbid someone criticises the stupidity of the SNP.

yonderblue · 1 Aug 2016 at 15:23

Thompson_NCL said:
Heaven forbid someone criticises the stupidity of the SNP.

Did I mention the SNP?

dlite · 1 Aug 2016 at 22:48

Narj said:
Well quite, this is the point of a "united" kingdom. We help each other out and in theory all benefit from prosperity from any of the member countries. Wealth redistribution on this scale makes sense IMO.

I'd have said the same about the EU if it hadn't turned into an expansionist behemoth.

These are the kind of arguments that I have hard time understanding, as I just don't see the logic behind them. Why wealth redistribution on certain arbitrary scale makes sense, but on some other arbitrary scale doesn't?

Where is the threshold of "too big", "suitably sized" and "too small" and how do you justify them? Ie. why helping Scotland is ok, but helping Ireland or Spain is not? Why do you think that having single market area with Scotland is good, but not with Spain, France and Poland?

You use the biblical term "behemot" but are you even aware of the magnitude of EU budget? UK governmental budget is around £770 billion, whereas EU budget is about 144€ billion (or about £122 billion). So the EU "behemot" has less than one sixth of UK governmental budget. Countries like Austria and Finland (~8.5million and 5.5 million ppl respectively) have governmental budgets around 160€ billion and 120€ billion / year.

It is a lot of money, but it is only about ~1% of EU's GNI.