Brexit thread - what happens next

[Mercenary Keyboard Warrior]

It is pretty surprising, however it is worth considering that it may well be in the next few months that job losses are more apparent. Saying that, the point is that a number of economists predicted large job losses by now and that hasn't happened so far.

I dont think many predicted huge job losses this quickly at all, got some sources?

The reality with jobs is that it takes a time to go up or down. Its the whole problem with a recession in that its a spiral thats hard to break.

This is good news for sure but its always the devil in the detail thats the point and its hard to take things like jobs in short timespans.

I know plenty of companies that are not offering full employment contracts but offering temp or fixed term ones just because of the uncertainty.
Its nothing unusual and often happens in times of uncertainty.

Generally though this is good news, its a sign that we haven't had too much impact from brexit caused by over reaction. But the big risk was always not a massive short term impact but a longer term erosion as companies choose to invest or expand elsewhere as opposed to the UK. That will be practically impossible to see in reality so no one will know if the impact was there or not.

 

[yonderblue]

Seems conman Nigel Farage refused to deny that he is applying for German citizenship.
http://www.politico.eu/article/is-n...-citizenship-brexit-consequences-ukip-europe/

 

[Mr Jack]

9:34am: A big surprise in the labour market data: the number of people claiming unemployment benefits fell by 8,600 in July, a month after the Brexit vote. No sign yet then that the Brexit vote is hurting the jobs market…[/B]

The claimant count was rising while unemployment figures were falling during the last few months. Something weird is happening with these figures.

(See section 13 of the ONS report)

 

[b0redj0rd]

I dont think many predicted huge job losses this quickly at all, got some sources?

Economists polled by Reuters are expecting a 9,500 jump in claims

Here's a link to the Reuters story which goes in to a little more detail.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-britain-jobs-idUKKCN10S0T2

 

[Avenged7Fold]

I think the job losses would be linked to the idea that article 50 would be enacted immediately or closely after the vote. As there is no deadline for anything or set dates just yet, there is no need to make any large decisions involving company relocation, which cost a ton of money.

 

[Mercenary Keyboard Warrior]

Economists polled by Reuters are expecting a 9,500 jump in claims

Here's a link to the Reuters story which goes in to a little more detail.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-britain-jobs-idUKKCN10S0T2

Thing is, and please take this as its meant, 9500 is not huge job losses.
Take a look back to the last recession, to qualify as huge your probably talking 100k per month.

I know its always horrible to consider people losing their jobs but a swing 10k either way is nothing, its practically a non event.
We need to see numbers employed as well (we have an increasing population). So we should be creating jobs at a decent pace, just failing to do this would cause an increase in unemployment.

Edit, and I know I am talking job losses as opposed to be increase/decrease in unemployment semi interchangeably.

 

[platypus]

Seems conman Nigel Farage refused to deny that he is applying for German citizenship.
http://www.politico.eu/article/is-n...-citizenship-brexit-consequences-ukip-europe/

I despise the man but can't really blame him for doing this, with possible changes to movement incoming, dual citizenship would make sense for him and his family, wouldn't it?

France had stated its willing to negotiate on freedom of movemrnt with acesss to signle market

Sorry, a single un-important minister doesn't count. Hollande has ruled this out.

Whether he's still around come the next election I can't say, but the French as a whole would never settle for this.

 

[Mercenary Keyboard Warrior]

Nige doing his bit, getting dual nationality for his kids so he can send them home?
Maybe hes sending his wife packing

I am sure he would be really welcome in Germany

 

[b0redj0rd]

Thing is, and please take this as its meant, 9500 is not huge job losses.
Take a look back to the last recession, to qualify as huge your probably talking 100k per month.

I know its always horrible to consider people losing their jobs but a swing 10k either way is nothing, its practically a non event.
We need to see numbers employed as well (we have an increasing population). So we should be creating jobs at a decent pace, just failing to do this would cause an increase in unemployment.

Edit, and I know I am talking job losses as opposed to be increase/decrease in unemployment semi interchangeably.

I agree with what you are saying. I am pretty sure I saw some predictions of 500k losses but the time-scale of the predicted losses wasn't really clear it seems to just be 'because of BREXIT' which is pretty ambiguous.

Speaking from my personal experiences within the company I work for, which is HQ'd in France - Things have been running as normal for the time being, indeed the UK operations in which I am involved as making money at the moment and its the European and USA side of the business which is hemorrhaging cash at the moment. We are getting new contracts and have taken on a new person since BREXIT. Things actually seem okay for now.

The last job losses here were a direct result of the low oil prices and being in or out of the EU isn't going to impact that sort of thing.

I'll take today's news as positive with a caveat that things could change on a month by month basis - But the fallout so far is not what was predicted from what I can see, however there is a lonnnnggggg way to go until BREXIT (or BREXIT lite as I suspect we'll end up with).

 

[Avenged7Fold]

I don't understand why HE would need dual citizenship, if not to benefit from the advantages of the EU. His kids I understand but unless he is planing to bugger off there, why?

 

[Mercenary Keyboard Warrior]

I think the job losses would be linked to the idea that article 50 would be enacted immediately or closely after the vote. As there is no deadline for anything or set dates just yet, there is no need to make any large decisions involving company relocation, which cost a ton of money.

Even then people don't lose jobs immediately.
People lose jobs when there isn't work, industry by industry the timescales will be different.
Reality if we see this it will probably start in services, so if people pull back spending it could start to trigger some cut backs in those industries.
No manufacturing etc will see any changes yet so more unlikely to see any immediate short term impact, unlesss we trigger a recession or sustained very low growth, at that point all bets are off.

 

[platypus]

I don't understand why HE would need dual citizenship, if not to benefit from the advantages of the EU. His kids I understand but unless he is planing to bugger off there, why?

It's probably decent forward planning to get it done before a rule change, just in case future travel requires a visa on a UK passport.

 

[Glaucus]

I don't understand why HE would need dual citizenship, if not to benefit from the advantages of the EU. His kids I understand but unless he is planing to bugger off there, why?

hes a slimy evil git, who has only ever done what is best for him, somehow has fooled so many people thinking hes a supporter of their opinions.

:No sign yet then that the Brexit vote is hurting the jobs market…[/B]

wow are you actually capable of critical thinking, we haven't issued article 50 and as said business moving abroad takes time.
however there has already been many negative effects to the economy and as time goes on especially after article 50 the downturn will grow massively.
between tories and brexit if i was jobless/on benefits i would be doing all i could to find work, even part time.

 

[malachi]

Seems conman Nigel Farage refused to deny that he is applying for German citizenship.
http://www.politico.eu/article/is-n...-citizenship-brexit-consequences-ukip-europe/

Will be funny if he has. Would be more funny if Germany reject it. He's not exactly a unknown person to the world now.

 

[Mercenary Keyboard Warrior]

I agree with what you are saying. I am pretty sure I saw some predictions of 500k losses but the time-scale of the predicted losses wasn't really clear it seems to just be 'because of BREXIT' which is pretty ambiguous.

Probably remains view should we have a hard exit, ie no decent trade deal.

I dont have any doubt that if we dont get a strong trade deal that we will see job losses, but reality is will be hard to see them as often they will come from non investment (and hence they are "lost" to the economy as opposed to individuals losing their job) in the UK as opposed to literally lost jobs

 

[Avenged7Fold]

Apparently he was there for a different matter. He could be there to pick up personal and sensitive documents on behalf of his wife/children.

As for him being 'busy' as of late. He has been doing nothing but his favourite pastime of creating fear-mongering gossip and doing sweet fa as an MEP while proclaiming it as a move of defiance.

 

[kitch9]

Thats not far off what Cameron came back with though, so thats probably achievable, just with a small increase in the UK contribution to the EU

Cameron came back with a temporary break over a few years. Effectively nothing.

 

[do_ron_ron]

LOL Guardian .......... again.

8:09am: UK jobless claims expected to rise following Brexit vote – Economists polled by Reuters are expecting a 9,500 jump in claims


9:34am: A big surprise in the labour market data: the number of people claiming unemployment benefits fell by 8,600 in July, a month after the Brexit vote. No sign yet then that the Brexit vote is hurting the jobs market…

I was surprised, Unemployment falling in the main tourist season. I was surprised the same happened last year and the year before and .......

Even without the usual yearly fall the pound has devalued by 10%+ so making the UK a cheaper place to visit.

Guess what, there will also be a drop in unemployment in the run up to Xmas.

 

[n111ck]

I was surprised, Unemployment falling in the main tourist season. I was surprised the same happened last year and the year before and .......

Even without the usual yearly fall the pound has devalued by 10%+ so making the UK a cheaper place to visit.

Guess what, there will also be a drop in unemployment in the run up to Xmas.

Can you provide any stats to back that up?

 

[Skunkworks]

I was surprised, Unemployment falling in the main tourist season. I was surprised the same happened last year and the year before and .......

Just like the pound and interest rates dropping.