When are you going fully electric?

Soldato
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I think you'll find road signs / restrictions etc will be pre-programmed into the database it's fly by night roadworks that could be an issue !

Odd. The market leaders in AV technology all use cameras to read road signs...

The problem with a database is it's useless unless it is updated in real-time, with no errors. With static signs, this is maybe a believable possibility, but with a significant chance of bad data caused by human error. With temporary signs, there is no chance of good data. Too many individuals and organisations use them, sometimes for very short periods of time. There is no way every one could be relied upon to supply data that is accurate and up-to-date, every time.

If AVs need to use a camera to read temporary signs, the system is still open to abuse.

If both a database and a camera are used, what happens when they disagree? Do you assume the database is accurate, ignoring the possibility of bad, out-dated, or missing data? Or do you assume the road sign is correct?

This isn't something I made up for a forum post. It's a well-known and we'll documented challenge in the development of AVs. They can (and do) misread road signs due to vandalism, damage, overgrown foliage, and a whole host of other hazards. There is every chance that this could be exploited for malicious purposes.
 
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Caporegime
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It's a massively disruptive technology that once it works, will just exponentially increase in use. 2019 is when Telsa will be releasing the Tesla Semi Truck which has autonomous features, numerous large companies in the USA have ordered them including Wallmart which own Asda. Give it a year or so of trials and rapid improvements by Telsa thanks to the huge amount of data they will be getting and its not at all impossible that autonomous trucks will be on the road by 2020/2021, most likely for the easier trips like distribution centre to store, probably with a baby sitter on board to take over control once it gets into a town or where needed.

Volvo already have some for trial that are in use at a quarry, they are operating between quarry and a port, presently they operate with a "supervisor" but they are generally completely anonymous and could operate 24/7.

https://www.cbronline.com/news/autonomous-truck

Tesla don’t have level 3 automation, let alone level 4/5. The autonomous technology in the Semis will be a glorified autopilot seen in the Model S/3, a driver assist technology, not an autonomous technology. That’s not to say autonomous lorries are not in the future. I’m guessing by 2025 there will be numerous automated lorries being tested and working small scale on public roads on certain routes. Whether it’s Tesla is another matter. Their level 2 technology is pretty good, but it’s just that. There are lots of companies playing with level 4 systems however (including companies like Volvo).

As for autonomous lorries/trucks/machines off public roads. Many quarries have been using automated dump trucks and other vehicles for the best part of a decade. Many of them without anyone in a cab at all.

There are several things to consider when talking about autonomous systems and the future of car ownership:

The technology and systems - things like the use of cameras and lidar, but also where companies are working. Companies like Tesla are starting from the “highway” side - driving on simple, defined roads at high speeds, companies like Wayno are starting from the “town” side of things, where systems have to be far more complex to deal with all the variables. So far there’s no evidence that those systems that work well in simple “highway” environments (like Autopilot) will translate to working well in town situations.

Public requirements also factor in. As significant proportion of the population need/want more than a ridesharing system will provide. Having to remove all your belongings every trip (and store them), find specialist vehicles (for example if you want to carry bikes or other equipment) and people that just require a lot of “stuff” in their vehicles. Hailing a vehicle works fine if you’re just commuting to work, but for a family or more specialist vehicle it’s going to be such a pain to use (where do you store your child seats when you go to the shops for example), or do you hire the vehicle for the entire time you are there (extra expense). Now think about doing that every day? Why not just lease/buy?

And remember, while automation is going to come to taxi fleets first, it’ll become available in public vehicles pretty quickly after. Why not buy/lease an automated, electric vehicle and have all the benefits of the future ride hailing vehicle? You end up with the same situation as we have now, which leads to the question - why do people still own cars now, when Uber is so cheap?

The people that believe AV is going to wholesale change the car ownership model always like to compare AV ride hailing vehicle against current ICE vehicle. Sure, it looks great, but once you compare EV AV personal vehicle against EV AV ride hailing vehicle the benefits are just not as strong, especially when you start considering practicality. If money wa small that matters then more people would take public transport and drive around in superminis. They don’t though, in part because of the practicality reasons mentioned above.
 
Soldato
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We have plenty of wind power potential so that will steadily increase and Chargers have to be smarter from July next year so they can receive signals from the grid.

"All newly installed home EV charge points that have received government funding must feature ‘smart’ technology from July 2019, it has been announced today (Friday 14th December).
The move is part of the UK Government’s Road to Zero strategy, and will see home units able to be remotely accessed, and capable of receiving, interpreting, and reacting to a signal. Smart charging capabilities have the potential to dramatically reduce the load on the National Grind during peak times, minimising the cost of charging for users, and the price of infrastructure upgrades for network operators."
 
Caporegime
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you do realise the biggest windfarm in europe was recently launched in the UK. they are also constantly building more and more? you are talking probably £50 billion spent by just 1 company on them.

there are other companies out there too.
Every petrol station in the U.K. is effectively a power station with the amount of energy they can output.

Imagine 8 pumps with 35 litres a minute. This is around 3.5kg/sec @ 44MJ / litre.

=154MW.

Whitelee wind farm. The second biggest in Europe is 540MW
 
Caporegime
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Every petrol station in the U.K. is effectively a power station with the amount of energy they can output.

Imagine 8 pumps with 35 litres a minute. This is around 3.5kg/sec @ 44MJ / litre.

=154MW.

Whitelee wind farm. The second biggest in Europe is 540MW

when is a petrol station with 8 pumps running 24/7?

it takes drivers 2 minutes to park up, get out their car and put their card in, etc. then you have also have all the time nobody is at the pumps.

so you would be lucky for a pump to be doing 1/10th of what you are suggesting.

so 15MW compared to 540MW
 
Caporegime
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when is a petrol station with 8 pumps running 24/7?

it takes drivers 2 minutes to park up, get out their car and put their card in, etc. then you have also have all the time nobody is at the pumps.

so you would be lucky for a pump to be doing 1/10th of what you are suggesting.

so 15MW compared to 540MW
maybe in Glasgow. Try a 16 or 24 pump station on the motorway.

Anyway it’s not about average. It’s about peak demand which is where limitations come in.

My point was merely to highly the massive entergy density of fuel versus a single windfarm being able to be significant source of energy.

Also what happens when there is no wind ?
 
Man of Honour
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Anyone driven or have a view on I-pace. My contract hire is coming to an end on my X5 later this year and seriously considering one as an option. I love the X5 but have had two in a row and fancy a change. Other options are a last hurrah with fuel and a used range rover or may be a macan. Appreciate they are all quite different.
 
Caporegime
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maybe in Glasgow. Try a 16 or 24 pump station on the motorway.

Anyway it’s not about average. It’s about peak demand which is where limitations come in.

My point was merely to highly the massive entergy density of fuel versus a single windfarm being able to be significant source of energy.

Also what happens when there is no wind ?

i've driven to england including london several times.

on the 24 pump motorway you were lucky to find 2 other cars filling up.

because most cars can do 400-500 miles to a tank.
 
Soldato
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The move is part of the UK Government’s Road to Zero strategy, and will see home units able to be remotely accessed, and capable of receiving, interpreting, and reacting to a signal. Smart charging capabilities have the potential to dramatically reduce the load on the National Grind during peak times, minimising the cost of charging for users, and the price of infrastructure upgrades for network operators."

I wonder how this will work in practical terms, if say you urgently need a charge at peak times?

Is it going to block you completely from charging, or reduce your charge speed, or just use surge pricing to disincentivise people from charging at certain times? If the former, its not exactly ideal if you have a couple of long trips in a day and are relying on a quick charge at home in between...

Anyway, to answer the OP, my Zoe should be here in about 2 weeks now :D (finally!)
 
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Ok mate. Petrol stations are always empty. Got it

Its my only minor gripe having moved back to petrol that I have to fill up weekly now.
I can remember the last time I filled up without having to que, it was xmas eve. The time before that, I don't know, maybe 2016 or something.

Honestly prior to xmas eve I cannot remember the last time I just drove up to a petrol station and didn't have to wait for a pump.
 
Soldato
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Every petrol station in the U.K. is effectively a power station with the amount of energy they can output.

Imagine 8 pumps with 35 litres a minute. This is around 3.5kg/sec @ 44MJ / litre.

=154MW.

Whitelee wind farm. The second biggest in Europe is 540MW

More like 35MJ/litre. Don’t forget a rough efficiency figure for a combustion engine of about 25%, so your 154MW drops to about 31MW.
 
Soldato
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Anyone driven or have a view on I-pace. My contract hire is coming to an end on my X5 later this year and seriously considering one as an option. I love the X5 but have had two in a row and fancy a change. Other options are a last hurrah with fuel and a used range rover or may be a macan. Appreciate they are all quite different.

Great cars. Especially if you prefer naturally aspirated type of driving experience rather than this wafty surgy make it’s mind up nature of modern boosted engines.
 
Caporegime
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Ok mate. Petrol stations are always empty. Got it

there used to be 3 in lenzie now there is only 1 everyone is swaying towards supermarkets on the outskirts. one is now a co-op and the forecourt is parking. the other is now part of an arnold clark showroom.

so not all of them are full 24/7
 
Soldato
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Anyone driven or have a view on I-pace. My contract hire is coming to an end on my X5 later this year and seriously considering one as an option. I love the X5 but have had two in a row and fancy a change. Other options are a last hurrah with fuel and a used range rover or may be a macan. Appreciate they are all quite different.

Every single review of the iPace I have seen has been overwhelmingly positive. Great drive, fit and finish. The only negatives I have seen are about the in car software being slow.

But there are one issuewhen it comes to owning one in the real world that you will not see in reviews compared to say a Tesla. They are really thirsty when it comes to electrons, the car has a 200miles real world range which is great but charging it away from home is slow due to a lack of high power (100kw+, 50kws are almost everywhere now) chargers currently in the UK.

Because the car is so thirsty those times when you do need to use a public charger the ‘miles per hour’ charging you gain are much lower than the competition, this really important for a long journey and being stuck on a 50kw charger.

Over a 900km road trip across Norway the iPace was no quicker than an old Kia Soul with a battery 1/3 of the size. While this is a huge journey, it demonstrates how ‘miles per hour’ off a fast charger is far more important than its KW rating once you get outside the initial range of the car.

This will be resolved in the next few years but you might also be nearly finished your lease by then. This also may not be a problem for you if you don’t regularly do really long trips, I certainly wouldn’t worry for a Few times a year thing but it if was every week then I would really think twice about it.
 
Man of Honour
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Every single review of the iPace I have seen has been overwhelmingly positive. Great drive, fit and finish. The only negatives I have seen are about the in car software being slow.

But there are one issuewhen it comes to owning one in the real world that you will not see in reviews compared to say a Tesla. They are really thirsty when it comes to electrons, the car has a 200miles real world range which is great but charging it away from home is slow due to a lack of high power (100kw+, 50kws are almost everywhere now) chargers currently in the UK.

Because the car is so thirsty those times when you do need to use a public charger the ‘miles per hour’ charging you gain are much lower than the competition, this really important for a long journey and being stuck on a 50kw charger.

Over a 900km road trip across Norway the iPace was no quicker than an old Kia Soul with a battery 1/3 of the size. While this is a huge journey, it demonstrates how ‘miles per hour’ off a fast charger is far more important than its KW rating once you get outside the initial range of the car.

This will be resolved in the next few years but you might also be nearly finished your lease by then. This also may not be a problem for you if you don’t regularly do really long trips, I certainly wouldn’t worry for a Few times a year thing but it if was every week then I would really think twice about it.

Interesting thanks. I tend to drive down to alps once a year. Rest is largely within the range. My parents are 157 miles and that is most frequent long journey. Mostly m4 which i guess would be reasonably efficient.
 
Caporegime
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More like 35MJ/litre. Don’t forget a rough efficiency figure for a combustion engine of about 25%, so your 154MW drops to about 31MW.
I said litre rather than kg by mistake. Oops.

The petrol station is outputting 154W when all are being filled (or charged to stay consistent with the theme here)

I have not mentioned 24/7. Just the fact the max capacity of a fuel station is huge and very difficult to replicate that output on a EV landscape. A petrol car is charging at 22MW and people are getting excited about 350kW ‘fast’ chargers (ignoring battery limitations)

And if charging times are slower. Guess what. You need more chargers. More chargers then = more power.

Fair point in the efficiency meaning every demand will be lower at the filling/charge point. But it is still orders of magnitude away and goes to show that a EV future will rely on more power on the grid and a need for home charging as the ‘norm’.
 
Soldato
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Trying to compare the energy density of fuel being delivered by a petrol pump to rapid chargers as an argument against EV's is just an exercise of mental gymnastics and has next to zero base in reality. It completely ignores how the energy is used which is hugely relevant to the differences between the two. It also ignores way that the energy can be added to an EV anywhere at any time VS having a dedicated filling station and the huge amount of energy needed to get petrol/diesel to the forecourt, the forecourt its self and the huge amount of energy needed to refine said petrol or diesel.

Also more chargers don't equal more energy, the total amount of energy that is needed is the same but its being split across more pipes. National Grid have reiterated multiple times that the UK has sufficient capacity to deal with EV's and its because most EV's can be charged overnight on a standard 3 pin plug will be more than enough to cover most peoples daily mileage and 90% of cars spend 90% of their time parked. EV charging will simply be discouraged between 4-9pm via demand based pricing via smart meters, outside of those and particularly overnight the UK has huge amounts of capacity.

It's not orders of magnitude away, far from it.
 
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