Matched betting - who's done it and who's good at it? (No Referrals)

Don
Joined
18 Oct 2002
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41,733
Location
Notts
Not matched betting but had a good one last week

had Aubameyang and Son both to score and Sky let me cash out after Son had been taken off :p
 
Soldato
Joined
18 Oct 2002
Posts
5,148
Location
Riding my bike
7 games in the Europa tonight - 3 get to 2:0 up and pay out at BM. Can one of the opposition score a goal - nope.

Genk go 4-0 up, Sevilla go 3-0 up and villareal sit on a 2-0 lead all game after scoring the second in the TENTH minute.

Could have been a great night. Plus the BM is slow enough paying out that there is no chance of getting on the 8pm matches.

Oh well. £1000 total bets (all laid) QLs of only £25 so nothing to worry about.
 
Soldato
Joined
18 Oct 2002
Posts
5,148
Location
Riding my bike
Question for you experts.

Running the 2up system. It would be nice to back both sides one at 365 and the other at PP and get a 2up payout whichever goes 2 up. But that then means laying both teams. Can use betxfair for the PP bet as that just gets your pp account closed.

So I was looking a an approach based on dutching. Bet team 1 at 365, team 2 at pp and the draw at - say - will hill.

The following image shows my system along with returns:

EHqXSXr.jpg

For a total stake of £200 spread across the 3 outcomes balanced according to the odds so that each outcome pays out the same.

The advantages of this system is that:

1) You don't pay exchange commision
2) Either team can go 2up and then draw/lose and you make a return
3) Lower variance than just backing one team
4) Three bets instead of 4 if you lay according to the usual back/lay method

Downsides:
1) Can't cash out if a team goes 2-0 and then 2-1
2) Odds will generally be closer to 100% than using an exchange to lay so lower QLs

Opinions ??
 
Associate
Joined
21 Nov 2007
Posts
1,064
Location
Fleet, Hampshire
Question for you experts. <snip>

I've run this a few times in simulation and I have normally found that the QL are greater doing the dutch than laying....but that is because I use an Exchange with zero commission. If you use a site like Profit Accumulator (which is good for finding offers and has some useful calculators on) they have promotions from some of the exchanges where you can use them with zero commission (I think they are looking for the liquidity that MB'ers bring).

Normally an Exchange will reduce your held liability if you back two outcomes on the same event (as they can't both happen).

In answer to your other point about not being able to cash out. You can manually do that by just further backing the team you have gone two up on. Effectively you re bet the money you know you have won to cover off your lay bet.
 
Soldato
Joined
18 Oct 2002
Posts
5,148
Location
Riding my bike
That makes a lot of sense.

Always concerned a bit about the liquidity on smarkets. but a back bet makes sense.

Are bookies going to gub accounts that back in-play a bet they have backed and gone 2-up on ?

Would be so much easier if PP hadn't bought betfair.
 
Associate
Joined
21 Nov 2007
Posts
1,064
Location
Fleet, Hampshire
That makes a lot of sense.

Always concerned a bit about the liquidity on smarkets. but a back bet makes sense.

Are bookies going to gub accounts that back in-play a bet they have backed and gone 2-up on ?

Would be so much easier if PP hadn't bought betfair.

Back it on the Exchange rather than the bookies. You will get better odds and no gubbing risk.
 
Soldato
Joined
18 Oct 2002
Posts
5,148
Location
Riding my bike
I usually just lay both teams at Smarkets and if either goes 2 up I hit the trade out button which in effect cashes out your lay.
Have you ever been unable to cash out due to a lack of liquidity?

I've looked at smarkets during some championship games and would not have been able to cash out (usually bet about £200)
 
Caporegime
Joined
29 Jan 2008
Posts
58,899
Have you ever been unable to cash out due to a lack of liquidity?

I've looked at smarkets during some championship games and would not have been able to cash out (usually bet about £200)

I suspect a lot of their liquidity is actually provided by their own internal market making arm (or some entity owned by the same people that own the exchange).

If you decide to take everything available on the bid/offer but betfair prices haven't moved then (assuming there is plenty of liquidity available on betfair for the same market) I doubt their prices are going to move much either. I'd assume they're just not showing much size - not checked this myself as I'm no longer interested in matched betting and they're not much use to me.
 
Soldato
Joined
19 Jun 2009
Posts
5,962
Location
London
Have you ever been unable to cash out due to a lack of liquidity?

I've looked at smarkets during some championship games and would not have been able to cash out (usually bet about £200)

Nope never had this situation as of yet.

Having said that, I only do 2up on the bigger leagues (EPL/La Liga/Bundesliga/ Serie A)
 
Associate
Joined
20 Nov 2004
Posts
2,209
Location
Nock/Leicester
Been curious about this for a while now and started looking into it this weekend. Does anyone have some good resources for a beginner to get to grips with things? :)

Id also be interested in this please. Is there a website that shows a step by step guide, FAQ's, tutorials and the best sign up bonus's etc?

I have permission to set up accounts in my wife, mum, dad and sisters name as well as mine. So i figure if I smash all the sign up bonus's and refer a friend deals over the 5 of us I could make some great money in the first couple months? Not sure if id bother with it long term. Would depend on time required and the kind of returns id get.
 
Caporegime
Joined
24 Oct 2012
Posts
25,023
Location
Godalming
Been curious about this for a while now and started looking into it this weekend. Does anyone have some good resources for a beginner to get to grips with things? :)

Id also be interested in this please. Is there a website that shows a step by step guide, FAQ's, tutorials and the best sign up bonus's etc?

I have permission to set up accounts in my wife, mum, dad and sisters name as well as mine. So i figure if I smash all the sign up bonus's and refer a friend deals over the 5 of us I could make some great money in the first couple months? Not sure if id bother with it long term. Would depend on time required and the kind of returns id get.


Drop me a trust, I'll hook you up :)
 
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