Tesla Model X P100D

[Nasher]

Well they do have until 2040, so no rush

Petrol isn't going anywhere for a long time. They haven't even figured out how they are going to tax EVs to death yet.

 

[HEADRAT]

Electric is the future and the traditional manufacturers are struggling to compete.

I think it’s taken “traditional manufacturers” time to catch up so to a certain extent Tesla has had no real competition in their niche.

Problem is the 2019/20 will see lots of the big boys move into electric, Tesla will certainly “feel the pinch” of more competition.

 

[Doobedoo]

Well they do have until 2040, so no rush

Petrol isn't going anywhere for a long time. They haven't even figured out how they are going to tax EVs to death yet.

This is why I think hydrogen will end up being the go to future go-go juice.

It can be taxed and money can be made from the production and supply of hydrogen. All the existing petrol station can be converted to hydrogen supply so the infrastructure already exists.

 

[Nasher]

This is why I think hydrogen will end up being the go to future go-go juice.

It can be taxed and money can be made from the production and supply of hydrogen. All the existing petrol station can be converted to hydrogen supply so the infrastructure already exists.

The plans for hydrogen at the moment is a new fuel for big things like trains, ships, aircraft. But it's not all that certain yet.

If we have a breakthrough in fusion power generation then we probably will stick with electric. If there is a breakthrough in hydrogen harvesting (and storage) then it might go that way.

Hydrogen is a better fuel, but it takes way more energy to collect than you get back from burning it.

 

[Doobedoo]

Both Toyota and Hyundai have cars you can buy and others are already developing

There are currently only two FCEV models available to own in the UK - Hyundai's ix35 fuel cell and the Toyota Mirai - though these will be joined by Honda's Clarity Fuel Cell later in 2018.

Hyundai and Toyota have gone about creating their models in different ways, with the ix35 fuel cell adapted from the company's existing ix35 SUV, whereas the Mirai has been specifically designed from the outset as a fuel cell vehicle. The Honda is like the Toyota in this respect, and it is expected that new manufacturers coming into the FCEV market will follow this approach. There are likely to be a few 'converted' models released though, like the Hyundai, since the development costs are significantly less, even if packaging compromises need to be made.

BMW, Audi, and Mercedes Benz are just some of the companies that have been developing hydrogen fuel cell models, so the market will gradually expand over the course of the next few years. Until then, Toyota, Hyundai, and Honda will remain the main market leaders for this technology, though even small start-ups such as Riversimple, with its ultra-efficient Rasa, look set to compete on some level.

https://www.nextgreencar.com/fuelcellcars/

 

[Doobedoo]

Until Electeic vehicles can charge in under 5mins and its battery pack last longer it’s always going to be inconvenient for the majority.

It’s got a bit of catching up to do but as with any new tech the quicker they start to sell the quicker the tech will advance.

 

[Jonnycoupe]

Until Electeic vehicles can charge in under 5mins and its battery pack last longer it’s always going to be inconvenient for the majority.

Until the myth is largely proven as incorrect that might be the case, truth is they are already suitable for the majority of people’s use.

If I have to charge in 5 mins in order to do 200miles a day I would sooner change my job than car....

 

[Doobedoo]

Until the myth is largely proven as incorrect that might be the case, truth is they are already suitable for the majority of people’s use.

If I have to charge in 5 mins in order to do 200miles a day I would sooner change my job than car....

It depends on the person. If your a mum for example your only going to the shops, picking up the kids so for that it’s absolutely fine. If your using it for your daily commute which is a 50 mile round trip then that’s fine. If your a sales rep or like me a service engineer that can easily do 2-300 miles a day the last thing me or my boss wants it to have to stop somewhere between jobs to have to charge my vehicle for however long it takes. If you have to do any kind of long distance driving then it’s an inconvenience.

Also how much strain is it going to put on the grid as more and more people begin to use ev’s. How many more power stations will need to be built and who is going to pay for it all. I imagine the cost per kwh is going to rise quite a bit.

 

[Scania]

I think it’s taken “traditional manufacturers” time to catch up so to a certain extent Tesla has had no real competition in their niche.

Problem is the 2019/20 will see lots of the big boys move into electric, Tesla will certainly “feel the pinch” of more competition.

Absolutely, BMW, Ford, GM, Nissan & the rest undoubtedly are just sitting back and watching - and learning - Tesla may well not have much competition currently but by God, they soon will have and I doubt - from their current offerings - they will have much in the way of an answer.

 

[ahar]

The model X long range is £80k with the premium package and autopilot. The equivalent I-pace is around £75k for a similar spec.

Just specced each one up on the website - 90k Vs 71k. Seems the price on the model X has only very recently dropped a lot. Still 19k more for a car that looks like a Citroen MPV.

If you want to compare to non-SUV then the model S must be used.

No. As I mentioned in my previous post, for the great majority of people cars are substitutable between segments as well as within them. A 90k model X competes with range rovers , Volvo XC90, Porsche Cayennes etc etc, as well as Audi RS6 and panameras. That's how the car market works - you can see this by how carefully manufacturers set their range and options within even their own brand to try not to cannibalise sales.

Electric is the future and the traditional manufacturers are struggling to compete.

Remind me how many cars Tesla sells compared to the other manufacturers? Tesla is very successful, but when EV (pure EV, not hybrids) are around 1% of sales (UK SMMT figures, Nov 2018) it's a bit of a stretch to say traditional manufacturers are struggling to compete.

 

[pioneer2000]

Just specced each one up on the website - 90k Vs 71k. Seems the price on the model X has only very recently dropped a lot. Still 19k more for a car that looks like a Citroen MPV.

No. As I mentioned in my previous post, for the great majority of people cars are substitutable between segments as well as within them. A 90k model X competes with range rovers , Volvo XC90, Porsche Cayennes etc etc, as well as Audi RS6 and panameras.

Nope, £80,200 for a model x with the premium pack (so directly comparable with an I-Pace, which I make as £72,455)

Looks are totally subjective but the model X is much more of a looker than the confused Jaguar offering.

Not sure if you’re being intentionally difficult about the choice of vehicle, if someone is looking at a Panamera they’re going to be more interested in what a model S is like than a model X...!

 

[Steedie]

I wouldn’t say any of the Tesla range are lookers, they are all bland and lacking in any character.

I think the Jag is by far the more appealing car, even if it’s not the better performer

 

[b0rn2sk8]

Remind me how many cars Tesla sells compared to the other manufacturers? Tesla is very successful, but when EV (pure EV, not hybrids) are around 1% of sales (UK SMMT figures, Nov 2018) it's a bit of a stretch to say traditional manufacturers are struggling to compete.

They are struggling with price/cost though, it's no secret GM lose thousands every time a Bolt is sold, at the moment they are having to eat the difference and sell it at a loss.

https://electrek.co/2019/02/09/tesla-model-3-cost-surprise-porsche-audi-reverse-engineering/

Zoe makes a profit per car when measured on 'variable cost' what ever that means, probably doesn't include development costs so its meaningless.

Normand said that Renault is making a profit on each Zoe "measured on variable costs." However, he added, "we are not happy in that we are more expensive than internal combustion peer vehicles. We need to keep working hard to reduce costs."

https://europe.autonews.com/article...-to-keep-zoe-competitive-in-growing-ev-market

That compares to Tesla's massive margins per car, particularly on S, X and M3 AWD/Performance.

There is no doubt the i-Pace is a better looking car but there is more to it than that when considering EV's like charging. Tesla auto pilot is starting to get really good in the states, only a matter of time for Europe.

 

[Desmo]

Until Electeic vehicles can charge in under 5mins and its battery pack last longer it’s always going to be inconvenient for the majority.

See now I think that's the other way around. They're currently inconvenient for the minority. It just takes a bit of time to get your head around owning, running and charging an EV. I genuinely believe that for the majority of people, a long range EV would suit them just fine. It's just that they go looking for the extreme journey they make once a year and say how inconvenient charging is.

 

[lordrobs]

Yeah he doesn’t seem to realise the subtleties of car sales compared to electrical devices? Residuals matter.

Worried about the effect that this had on his almost one year old Model S the guy at work with one got a valuation on his against a new model... the depreciation worked out at just over £7... for every mile he's driven it.

As for electric being suitable for everyone, I agree to an extent. I could shift my work day around to accommodate fast charging an EV with a decent range. My problem would be my overnight stops, would I be confident that the one charging point at my hotel for the night will be working and free to use? Once that issue is sorted I'd have one... well, I wouldn't because my employer would much rather me be in a Focus or something but you get my point.

 

[Nasher]

Worried about the effect that this had on his almost one year old Model S the guy at work with one got a valuation on his against a new model... the depreciation worked out at just over £7... for every mile he's driven it.

I wouldn't want to be a private buyer. Depreciation is now insane and it'll be near impossible to sell on after a few years.

 

[McPhee]

Both Toyota and Hyundai have cars you can buy and others are already developing

https://www.nextgreencar.com/fuelcellcars/

Toyota, Hyundai, and Honda remain the only major manufacturers to actually release HFCVs though. And they aren't exactly selling brilliantly; as of the end of 2017, cumulative HFCVs sales hit 6,500 worldwide. At the same point, BEV sales were at 1.9 million.

Also how much strain is it going to put on the grid as more and more people begin to use ev’s. How many more power stations will need to be built and who is going to pay for it all. I imagine the cost per kwh is going to rise quite a bit.

What about the power demands of refining hydrogen? How many power stations will we need for that? Who is going to pay for it?

In a perfectly efficient system, it takes 32kWh of electricity to produce 1kg of hydrogen from water. That 1kg is enough for 100km of propulsion. So 3km per kWh. Convert to miles, and that's roughly 2 miles per kWh. An EV will typically get at least 3 miles per kWh, including transmission losses. So if we had perfectly efficient electrolysis, the electricity demands of running transport on hydrogen would be 50% higher than BEV. But we don't have perfectly efficient electrolysis. The best I've seen on a research paper is around 45kWh per kg.

As for generating electricity, National Grid have stated in the past that they have no immediate concerns about being able to power EVs. Their focus is currently on developing a "smart grid" to smooth out demand, rather than just building more and more capacity to cater for the few "peak demand" hours per year.

It can be taxed and money can be made from the production and supply of hydrogen. All the existing petrol station can be converted to hydrogen supply so the infrastructure already exists.

Could you explain the process of "converting" a petrol station to hydrogen? I'm assuming it involves ripping out the existing refuelling equipment and installing new equipment, meaning the infrastructure doesn't "already exist" at all. Only the sites do.

You've also missed the infrastructure needed to produce the hydrogen fuel. Or does that "already exist" as well? I guess oil refineries can be knocked down and replaced with hydrogen production facilities?

Fuel cost, according to an Engadget article from last year, is around $12 for 100km worth of fuel, subsidised. So roughly £10 for 100km, or £16 per 100 miles. That's 25% more than a typical petrol car despite the subsidy and without adding tax, the cost of infrastructure, or profit. Given the amount of tax on petrol, it seems like some serious economies of scale (or a major breakthrough) are needed to get the cost of hydrogen anywhere close to reasonable.

 

[ahar]

Nope, £80,200 for a model x with the premium pack (so directly comparable with an I-Pace, which I make as £72,455)

Only if you add no other options to the model X, which isn't going to happen. 90k is a realistic figure given a few options like better wheels and autonomous driving.

Not sure if you’re being intentionally difficult about the choice of vehicle, if someone is looking at a Panamera they’re going to be more interested in what a model S is like than a model X...!

Rubbish. Manufacturers know that substitutes for their cars cross types (i.e. consumers at these prices don't just look for a saloon, or an SUV, they consider both), which is why they design their models and options carefully to avoid too much cannibalisation.

 

[jpaul]

I wouldn't want to be a private buyer. Depreciation is now insane and it'll be near impossible to sell on after a few years.

As early adopters, they did not really think about the reduced production costs, in that respect it's not dissimilar to oled tv's, had the lease/pcp companies figured out the tesla risk though.

[ the elektrek article linked, is vague about battery cost advantage Tesla have versus audi/porsche
- https://electrek.co/2019/02/09/tesla-model-3-cost-surprise-porsche-audi-reverse-engineering/ ]

 

[pioneer2000]

Only if you add no other options to the model X, which isn't going to happen. 90k is a realistic figure given a few options like better wheels and autonomous driving.



Rubbish. Manufacturers know that substitutes for their cars cross types (i.e. consumers at these prices don't just look for a saloon, or an SUV, they consider both), which is why they design their models and options carefully to avoid too much cannibalisation.

Why would you add autopilot being a feature the I-pace doesn’t have?

The standard wheels are the equivalent wheels to the I-pace.

If you want to compare apples to apples, an equivalent S is better than a Panamera and an X is better than a Cayenne.