Ships under attack in the middle east

[h4rm0ny]

Because the leaders are power mad and they always want more.

Non sequitur. Re-read my post. You talked about the population being indoctrinated.

 

[RoboCod]

We have supported ISIS, Al Quaeda.

The CT brigade are here in full force.

Don't assume that the leaders of Iran are stupid or crazy. They're perfectly rational.

Are the leaders of the West crazy and irrational, by comparison, though?

 

[Firestar_3x]

Wouldn't shock me if that US surveillance plane followed that boat back to its base, given the boat type used, the equipment and how the guys are dressed it wouldn't be hard to draw a conculsion as to who has done it.

 

[Nasher]

Wouldn't shock me if that US surveillance plane followed that boat back to its base, given the boat type used, the equipment and how the guys are dressed it wouldn't be hard to draw a conculsion as to who has done it.

They could probably follow it with a satellite.

 

[Sankari]

For the American people? No. For soldiers? No. For factions and individuals within the USA who could gain financially or politically and are in positions of influence?

Evidence please.

Bush's Iraq invasion was profitable for guys like Dick Cheney, because he had shares in Halliburton, which was gifted a bunch of contracts from the Bush administration. But who in the US government would profit from attacking Iran?

There are enemies of Iran with this capability that would be happy to force the USA's hand. Israel, Saudi Arabia. False Flag by someone other than the USA is a very real possibility.

So now you're moving the parameters of the conspiracy theory to embrace a slightly different version. That's fine, but it doesn't support the argument I was originally responding to.

 

[Buddy]

Wouldn't shock me if that US surveillance plane followed that boat back to its base, given the boat type used, the equipment and how the guys are dressed it wouldn't be hard to draw a conculsion as to who has done it.

so why not show it? remove all doubt?

 

[kinetic747]

The problem is that Trump and his administration lies, constantly, about everything so any actual facts would be difficult to differentiate from fiction.

 

[VincentHanna]

The problem is that Trump and his administration lies, constantly, about everything so any actual facts would be difficult to differentiate from fiction.

Yep, years ago I would have believed the US without question really.

But Trump and his administration are so untrustworthy, you can't really take them at face value anymore, particularly when the ships captain said he doesn't believe it was a mine (though I doubt he is an expert in weaponry)

I don't understand the logic of Iran bombing a Japanese vessel whilst the Japanese prime minister is visiting their country.

 

[englishpremier]

During my career I’ve probably spent about two months in the anchorage at Fujairah on vessels awaiting orders, and it’s the norm there for the place to be awash with small local boats and skiffs fishing, totally unchecked, so it’d be pretty easy for someone on one of those to attach something to a ship’s hull.

The boats are actually a pain in the ****, they come right up alongside the ship to catch the fish coming up to feed on marine growth on the hull, and often tie a line to the anchor chain, rudder stock or propeller to keep themselves in place while they fish, causing delays when you need to heave up the anchor and go.

Who would want to eat a fish that has been feeding on marine growth growing on a TBT or copper anti-fouled hull. Can't be good for you.

 

[StriderX]

Who would want to eat a fish that has been feeding on marine growth growing on a TBT or copper anti-fouled hull. Can't be good for you.

Cant be any worse than the heavy metal or plastic poisoning.

Anyway, there is very real chance that this was the Revolutionary guard acting alone, Rouhani is a moderate and actually wanted the talks to be fruitful as he cares for his people more than his predecessor did, seemingly Khamenei agrees with his stance, though that could just be a ruse honestly.

I despair for the Iranians, ****** over by the British, then the Americans... so they can't trust the West's intentions without appearing like an enemy to hard liners, and have almost no friends politically in the region (really don't get their hatred of Israel, obviously some of the usual Jewish hate, but i think it's mostly the former reasoning, their previous betrayals by two Anglo-imperial nations who tacitly support Israel's belligerence which evolved from a real (if inefficient) threat).

They're just normal people trying to survive two enemies, the world and it's government.

 

[RoboCod]

so why not show it? remove all doubt?

They should, I don't think it would be too difficult. The footage looks like it's from an aircraft but it could be from a stationary camera with good range too (either on dry land or ship mounted). The fact is, the US have numerous bases all within minutes flight of the incident. It wouldn't be difficult to get surveillance up over the top, so it's interesting if they don't release more footage to put aside any doubts.

 

[ianh]

Here's my thoughts, if you "remove all doubts" it forces the US to respond with military force due to public pressure, and for the terminally stupid, the US may rattle the Sabre but they absolutely DO NOT want to fight Iran in an all out "Iraq" style war no matter they say outwardly. However if they keep the evidence "quiet" then they can use it as leverage in the current "semi-secretive" Iran/US sanctions talks taking place using Japan as a middle-man, something else being kept very quiet because neither side want the public scrutiny they'd get if the public were made fully aware - The US because it would be forced to act and be hugely weakened by it (whilst looking at Russia and China) and Iran because it knows it would lose the war and the leaders would end up dead like Saddam/Gaddafi which they don't want.

So I think Iran is using these attacks to as a bargaining chip to force the US into reducing Sanctions (Hey, reduce sanctions and we'll stop) and the US is trying to stop this getting bigger (despite pressure from internal/external sources) without appearing to lose face by publicly reducing sanctions - that's realpolitik, rather than the extremely "Black/White" opinions folks on here have, although my view is just an opinion of course.

 

[StriderX]

Just did a smol search and humorously found out that the US actually did a wargame with the Iranian's post 1980's tactics and 'lost' 16 ships (plus carrier) to small boats and missiles.

I can see why they would be embarrassed by that.

 

[ianh]

Just did a smol search and humorously found out that the US actually did a wargame with the Iranian's post 1980's tactics and 'lost' 16 ships (plus carrier) to small boats and missiles.

Sadly thats not quite a the real story. While the US did lose (and they really should learn from such things) the Opposing Force (OpFor) Commander used problems within the simulation to bypass reality, so ships/aircraft that were far too small to carry the missiles being fired or had no targeting capability (talking speed boats/cessna's firing 30ft 5 ton missiles) yet were still able to launch missiles at the US ships, messages sent by "bicycle" (after the Iranian comms network was destroyed) still travelled at the speed of radio message, US ships starting the exercise already positioned at point-blank range rather than stand-off as per reality etc proving the simulation was "broke".

There was a big wash-up afterwards when the OpFor Commander (ex-USMC) was "forced" to stick to reality (and had to stick to a script which was a mistake I feel) and the result was much more favourable to the US however the results still showed that the US was far too inflexible and thought of itself as infallible when faced with asymmetric threats. The OpFor Commander wrote a very strongly worded assessment of that inflexability/superiority complex and how it "will" cost lives IRL.

https://www.wikizero.com/en/Talk:Millennium_Challenge_2002

 

[StriderX]

Sadly thats not quite a the real story. While the US did lose (and they really should learn from such things) the Opposing Force (OpFor) Commander used problems within the simulation to bypass reality, so ships/aircraft that were far too small to carry the missiles being fired or had no targeting capability (talking speed boats/cessna's firing 30ft 5 ton missiles) yet were still able to launch missiles at the US ships, messages sent by "bicycle" (after the Iranian comms network was destroyed) still travelled at the speed of radio message, US ships starting the exercise already positioned at point-blank range rather than stand-off as per reality etc proving the simulation was "broke".

There was a big wash-up afterwards when the OpFor Commander (ex-USMC) was "forced" to stick to reality (and had to stick to a script which was a mistake I feel) and the result was much more favourable to the US however the results still showed that the US was far too inflexible and thought of itself as infallible when faced with asymmetric threats. The OpFor Commander wrote a very strongly worded assessment of that inflexability/superiority complex and how it "will" cost lives IRL.

https://www.wikizero.com/en/Talk:Millennium_Challenge_2002

How did the commander think those biases were even remotely viable? Was he just proving a point that whilst he cheated, some of it wasn't totally impossible and that a middle ground was unacceptable losses regardless?

 

[coltpython3]

False flag

 

[RoboCod]

So I think Iran is using these attacks to as a bargaining chip to force the US into reducing Sanctions (Hey, reduce sanctions and we'll stop) .

Absolutely. Sanctions have seen their exports suffer by about a third. I think Iran are stepping up to acts of aggression because they simply have nowhere else to go/patience wearing out.

The problem is a public that sees black and white, good and bad. It doesn't exist. What exists is power struggle and right now the middle eastern super powers of SA and Iran are acting out through their proxies. The Yemen conflict being a key factor in all of this and could help swing the balance of power some what.

You're right about the US not wanting all out war, despite the naysayers, it wouldn't make sense. It is more sensible for the US to choke them out the way that they currently are. Sad state of affairs though really.

 

[Rroff]

There are no holes in Western accounts of the Douma incident (which are consistent with local accounts, and independent.

Several of those behind local accounts, some who've ended up in the UK or France, have subsequently claimed they made statements under pressure (both to Western people and Syrian/Russian) and/or that their words were taken out of context or thought they were answering a different question, etc. with one guy, think he ended up in Cardiff but not 100% now, saying he was forced to say what he said on Russian TV because the Syrian government held his family at gunpoint - most of them claiming they don't actually know what happened.

Yes there is. The independent Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons found clear evidence of a chemical attack, as did the UN Commission of Enquiry on Syria.

It was a joint investigation - and some aspects are a joke really - claiming full chain of custody on evidence but they were ~14 days late gathering the samples, etc. and while they might have full chain of evidence within their investigation there is limited background information as to the sources, etc. of the evidence (sure Syrian government doesn't exactly have a motive to tamper with evidence to incriminate themselves but still).

I'm not saying there wasn't a chemical attack - I reject several of the arguments those who claim it was a false flag attack put forward to claim that the Syrian government couldn't possibly have done it but there is credible information that doesn't fit with a chemical attack which doesn't mesh nicely with the official narrative also - including the OPCW's response to the leaked report which clashes with how their investigation has been presented.

 

[mmj_uk]

US Democrats and left for 2-3 years: "Anyone who doesn't believe the intelligence surrounding Trump Russia collusion is a Russian puppet" and "OMG TRUMP IS ATTACKING INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES BY DENYING WHAT THEY SAY!!!!1".

US Democrats and left now: "Don't trust the intelligence saying that Iran did it, Israeli false flag" etc.

With half the political establishment jumping to blame Israel at the first opportunity what do Iran have to fear in attacking tankers? if Trump starts a war with Iran the left will fund more of their protests in the US.

 

[Johno please?]

Don't assume that the leaders of Iran are stupid or crazy. They're perfectly rational..

lol, theocratic governments are many things, rational isnt one of them