Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)

Soldato
Joined
6 Jan 2006
Posts
3,369
Location
Newcastle upon Tyne
I very much work on the basis that if something is too good to be true then stay clear but Ive been having a look at different funds on HL (currently have everything with Vanguard and Im aware of the ongoing issues with HL but was just curious) and came accross some funds that seem too good to be true! I appreciate past performance isnt an indicator of future perfomance but just taking one example from their site - Polar Capital, over the past 5 years theyve shown returns of 11% to as high as 40%! On their fact sheet is my interpretation of their performance correct in that if I had have invested £10k in Nov 2015 it would have went up by 34% to 13.4k and then again by 40% in the follwing year to £18,760? My average return with Vanguard is 8% which I thought was pretty good!
 
Soldato
Joined
13 Jul 2004
Posts
20,079
Location
Stanley Hotel, Colorado
PCT is the one I mentioned previously, it is amazing. It launched at 100p now £39.88 Iam interested if people think its a sell. My general take over the long term vs holding cash no not really and its tempting to sell now but portfolio balance is a personal question. 200% in five years is not normal but its definitely possible without forcing the idea it must be a bubble or fake in some way.
This fund is classed high risk and speculative I guess, its purely a tech fund. I guess all of us here have a bias to think tech is not a bad sector but in theory it is high risk, R&D costs can be gigantic and missteps can be made. Look at INTC for a strangely cheap stock previously and probably it isnt cheap now but is it a total sell I'm not sure, $70 some project it to

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https://www.hl.co.uk/funds/fund-dis...l-global-technology-class-i-gbp-income/charts

Apple is definitely high risk but also a giant margin on everything they sell afaik. When I talk to people who use Apple they rely on it uniquely and its not a replaceable or interchangeable brand, it has that loyalty factor so its hard to say they will decline.
Facebook declined on IPO quite sharply, it appeared to not have a proper source of cash flow but I guess it came back to advertising and it was opaque. Google IPO I remember, I never thought it was cheap but its undeniable they keep creating useful products.

None of this is unprecedented, I cant find the old FT.com stock calculator. Maybe someone who has a subscription can find it but the old stats were, 18k in MSFT 1990 was 1 million a decade later. Some of that was the tech boom, but weak or easy money phenomena is ongoing and helps tech a lot I think.
CSCO $1k > $1m the same decade or 99.5% PA but 8% a year is good, its doubled money in ten years.

In my memory the Federal Reserve had rates at 15% and similarly BOE was in that realm. Hard times, harsh monetary policy but required.
We got a very strange situation here where the FED is desperately trying to ease monetary policy, with good reason because if they lose control it would be the biggest fallout in a lifetime and worse then Volcker's regime or previous nasty economic pull backs.
That isnt stock talk, its macro economics I just think its relevant I have to mention it in contrast VS 'if its too good to be true'. Since its not been done before nobody can know exactly what will happen but the magic tricks played by central banks are quite dangerous seems like.
The juxtaposition with the laptop there is great...
CHK fell another 30 % the day after, maybe the trouble of drawing such an awkward stock is part of what helps them avoid them or discourage 'bargain hunting' .

Market cap 1bn sub $1 quote and USA is driven by absolute price. ie. penny stocks are banned territory for some funds and yet its a giant company. EGO had this similarly year start and its been amazing since, they own the largest gold mine in Europe

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Soldato
Joined
13 Jul 2004
Posts
20,079
Location
Stanley Hotel, Colorado
Great. I assumed that was the case and just wanted to confirm it. Will chuck it in now.

I can kind of understand trying to time the purchase of specific stocks but for funds it seems a bit pointless.

On compounding - https://youtu.be/aM5wSQbFpAI?t=377

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dollarcostaveraging.asp

Sxx is yet another I lost on in the end. Thank goodness I decided trading isn't for me earlier this year.

Going to hurt a lot of retail investors this.
And a big blow for employment up there.
40p seems a long time ago.
The mine will probably go ahead, its just the question of finance to do it at whose cost vs equity and on what time line etc.

I read BHP is mulling over potash projects still, I doubt they were to be involved but its just that this sector for massive investment is a viable idea. I think they already own the base ground with Potash in Canada but it might indicate some consideration by other giant multi nationals.

Another reason why brexit needs to be cleared to stop any possible impediment to considerations of this kind, to be fair we're talking decades into the future so I can hardly blame apprehension.
 
Soldato
Joined
25 Sep 2009
Posts
9,616
Location
Billericay, UK
. Google IPO I remember, I never thought it was cheap but its undeniable they keep creating useful products.

I have to disagree. Google has a solid core business that keeps them going along with the success of Android but they've struggled to branch out and wasted lots cash on ventures that are I'll thought out and poorly executed such as Google Wave, Google glass, Google +, Hangouts etc. Not even YouTube makes a profit and costs Google money to keep running every year.
 
Associate
Joined
30 Nov 2011
Posts
1,131
Vanguard question.

I know to setup a new investment £500 lump sum is need or a monthly payment of £100+. Once I have a certain investment can I randomly top it up with say £100 or do you just have to adjust your monthly payment temporarily? Or is £500 lump sum needed again for top up? I cant seem to find an answer for existing investments.

Also is there any way dividends can automatically be reinvested rather than going into your cash pot?

Thanks,
Sean
 
Soldato
Joined
8 Feb 2004
Posts
3,701
Location
London
Given the HL situation mentioned above, is there any risk to the platform itself, which I've been using to trade (in other funds - not HL or Woodford etc.)?
 
Soldato
Joined
13 Jul 2004
Posts
20,079
Location
Stanley Hotel, Colorado
The only reason Woodford had a problem is he dealt with very small companies, if he repeated his Invesco strategy of lots of large companies it'd worked out. Highest growth comes from the smallest parts of an economy as a rule, he was trying to capture that. Funds in general are safe in that the ownership is with the investors not the manager but he made a mistake on the liquidity and returns of those investments. HL cant harm your funds directly, I find them ok though I guess there is cheaper options on large amounts invested.
HL are in trouble for recommending woodford when he was in fact high risk, so they showed poor judgement. Woodford was called the British Warren Buffet before now but Warren is a genius on the funding also, I think he has 100bn spare at the problem and considers that a 'problem' as returns are low. I wanted to buy Berkshire when they split after buying a giant railroad, its done well since then but somehow long term its behind plain gold which doesnt exactly make sense.
 
Associate
Joined
31 May 2005
Posts
2,053
Location
Alfreton,Derbyshire
Hi all I'm just looking at Trading212 and Freetrade to get started. I'm interested in partial/fractional shares in some of the bigger companies. Does anyone on here deal with partial shares at all, it looks like both T212 and FT are due to get the functionality shortly but don't have it as yet from what I can tell. The other one I've seen mention it is revolut
 
Soldato
Joined
13 Jul 2004
Posts
20,079
Location
Stanley Hotel, Colorado
Halifax Sharebuilder does fractions I think. Energy is not a popular sector right now apparently, would be nice to catch when it is though as I see no good reason to ignore it long term. Saudi oil up 10% on its ipo

Sterling is the big thing I wanted to post as its changing the price of everything especially as FTSE is so commodity/foreign based and I have bias to gold. I trimmed quite a lot of CEY on its takeover offer, its cheap of course and for reasons
I think we can see a more positive Sterling if we could confirm a break of a negative trend and hold above 1.30 for the rest of the year on cable
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Soldato
Joined
13 Jul 2004
Posts
20,079
Location
Stanley Hotel, Colorado
I noticed Centrica and Lloyds seemed to be happy about the election result. Add them long term I reckon and likely to pay a div though there is a reason they are cheap. A. Banking risks B. Energy retail prices are heavily regulated possibly to the point of forced loss

Some website will list all the dividends and sort them even, its hard to say which are genuine buys. FTSE itself pays a far better dividend then US stocks generally do afaik. I think its better value but some say it'll never catch SP500

Which reminds me of a site to use:
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https://dqydj.com/stock-return-calculator/
 
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Associate
Joined
23 May 2004
Posts
2,178
How has everyone's portfolios done this year? I lagged behind the sp500 by a bit so I have now decided to only invest in index funds. I remember when I first invested I was so excited gaining 1000 USD a month, now I am seeing that (or a loss) in a day, the power of compound interest is amazing!
 
Associate
Joined
3 Feb 2004
Posts
733
Been a good year for takeovers this year due to the weak £. 3 holdings in my portfolio Ei Group PLC, Marston PLC and Eland Oil & Gas PLC all rose significantly on takeover offers. Sold all 3 for decent gains. Been lucky with Ideagen PLC buying and selling over the last 3 years, currently up 11% since buying again in September. Took a bit of a hit with Sirius and Alliance Pharma, sold Alliance Pharma at the wrong time, has risen consistently since selling. All my funds have been performing well the last 3 years since buying, especially Worldwide Healthcare (up 38.82%, crazy gains since October this year) and AXA Framlington American Growth (up 32.12%). Really lucky with stock picks this year. No complaints for now.
 
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Soldato
Joined
19 Oct 2008
Posts
5,949
Not had any takeovers of anything I'm holding this past year. Went through a phrase years ago where I was averaging 2+ a year. I'm often left with mixed feelings on takeovers however as they often are sold off to foreign owners.
Technology and pharma have been great for me again this year, AstraZeneca notably as my holding is of a decent size. The dividend is still pretty decent too. I'm glad the takeover never worked out a few years back. It would have been a quick gain but Astra been rocketing since.
Would be nice to see a Santa rally and the FTSE do a bit of catching up. It's been a laggard. I'd like to see it at 9000, so the Tories have their work cut out to build confidence in our companies and to not damage them.
 
Associate
Joined
30 Nov 2011
Posts
1,131
BT, Aviva, BP, Standard Life, HSBC, Shell, SSE.

FTSE 100. All in solid sectors. Healthy and repeatable profits. All currently above 6.3%.

After some more research, I came across a few of those. It appears BP has stopped their dividend for now but grabbed a few shares anyway as they are 'on sale'.

I'm using trading 212 for buying individual stocks and loving it - they just came out with fractional shares for a lot of the big companies.
 
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