Winter 2019/2020

Man of Honour
Joined
13 Oct 2006
Posts
90,821
As there is no thread yet and things are just starting to look interesting on the model front I thought I'd start one.

Some speculation of a SSW type event mid-December (though the effect usually starts to be felt 2+ weeks later) with a good chance of significant arctic outbreak for some part of the northern hemisphere but too early to say what and where.

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

The end of the GEFS run starting to show some promise for colder possibly snowy weather come December

tzkGluL.png

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gefs/gefsens850London0.png?cb=2

Siberian snow coverage is progressing well and ahead of many recent years

https://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_v3/ims_gif/ARCHIVE/EuAsia/2019/ims2019321_asiaeurope.gif

And we've seen early snow for some parts of the UK already with parts of Wales especially getting a taste https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-50376070

Gav's latest in-depth look at the potential for the coming winter:

 
Soldato
Joined
22 Nov 2009
Posts
13,252
Location
Under the hot sun.
As there is no thread yet and things are just starting to look interesting on the model front I thought I'd start one.

Some speculation of a SSW type event mid-December (though the effect usually starts to be felt 2+ weeks later) with a good chance of significant arctic outbreak for some part of the northern hemisphere but too early to say what and where.

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

The end of the GEFS run starting to show some promise for colder possibly snowy weather come December

tzkGluL.png

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gefs/gefsens850London0.png?cb=2

Siberian snow coverage is progressing well and ahead of many recent years

https://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_v3/ims_gif/ARCHIVE/EuAsia/2019/ims2019321_asiaeurope.gif

And we've seen early snow for some parts of the UK already with parts of Wales especially getting a taste https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-50376070

Gav's latest in-depth look at the potential for the coming winter:


This winter will be similar to the 2000-2001 one.
 

A2Z

A2Z

Soldato
Joined
9 May 2005
Posts
8,922
Location
Earth
Good thing I'll be in Miami over Xmas and New Year, should be pretty warm still. Only 10 days though :( so will have to come back to the cold anyway.

Hope it doesn't snow as that means clearing it at work which is never fun.
 
Joined
10 May 2004
Posts
12,813
Location
Sunny Stafford
Would love a really cold snowy winter, we dont get them often on the south coast ;)

I wish for the same, but you know full well that we'll have approx. 85 days of rain, 5 days of dull weather (or sun if we're lucky), and 1 morning with a light dusting of snow on the roofs which will be melted by 11AM. i.e. an average British winter, and that's not even on the South coast. I'm quoting Midlands here.

Then the summer of 2020 will be an 8-week 30C heatwave like we had in 2017 and 2018 :mad:
 
Soldato
Joined
31 May 2005
Posts
2,764
I wish for the same, but you know full well that we'll have approx. 85 days of rain, 5 days of dull weather (or sun if we're lucky), and 1 morning with a light dusting of snow on the roofs which will be melted by 11AM. i.e. an average British winter, and that's not even on the South coast. I'm quoting Midlands here.

Then the summer of 2020 will be an 8-week 30C heatwave like we had in 2017 and 2018 :mad:


You forget to mention UK will grind to a halt due to 5mm of snow .. Daily Express/Mail call it the end of the world
 
Man of Honour
Joined
12 Jul 2005
Posts
20,488
Location
Aberlour, NE Scotland
We have had a hell of a lot of rain here and so far are up to 86.5mm for November, 46.3mm of which was over a 24 hour period. We usually have snow on the ground around the 12th November and this year we had a couple of inches on the 14th. It has also been much colder at this point than in recent years. It's been below zero all day today and we have had a few days that have only reached a degree or two so this could be a bad winter on the way. I just hope it's not like 2010 when we had four feet of snow and ran out of places to dump it when clearing the road. I will dig out my weather station history tomorrow.
 
Soldato
Joined
17 Jan 2005
Posts
8,544
Location
Liverpool
I'm hoping for a cold one this year as last year was a bit of a wash out. I could count amount of winter climbing routes I ticked on one hand! The conditions look like they're coming in nicely in Scotland already so a trip up for a weekend is on the cards for December.
 
Man of Honour
OP
Joined
13 Oct 2006
Posts
90,821
Not too bothered about snow ,im half way up a very steep hill ,cant do with the hassle (although did make it home when cormwall ground to a halt in January
as a bodyboarder and storm watcher im more excited about this weeks groundswell ,20 second period ,drooling
https://magicseaweed.com/news/xxl-swell-about-to-hit-europe/11625/

Certainly living in some interesting times for weather - though I'd like to see at least one decent winter in this era - the last proper snowy winter (lasting more in weeks timescale rather than the 2-3 days we've had of late and 5 foot drifts, etc.) in the part of the country I'm living now was a year before I was born.
 
Man of Honour
Joined
12 Jul 2005
Posts
20,488
Location
Aberlour, NE Scotland
We hit -5 last night and it's still -3.5 now. Looking back at my weather stations history it's much colder than last year. So taking yesterday, 18th November as a example we had the following lows/highs over the past few years:-

All day temps are 18th November. All night temps are the night of 18/19th November.

2015 Day high +7.3 degrees C. Night low +5.0 degrees C.
2016 Day high +0.8 degrees C. Night low -1.6 degrees C.
2017 Day high +4.4 degrees C. Night low +0.1 degrees C.
2018 Day high +7.5 degrees C. Night low +0.9 degrees C.
2019 Day high -0.2 degrees C. Night low -5.0 degrees C.

I did have data going back to 2008 but the stupid backup drive failed big time. Always have a backup of a backup!! Recent winters have been wetter rather than just cold but this year is the exception so far as it's been very wet and cold. I will update if anything significant happens.
 
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