Soldato
- Joined
- 25 Nov 2005
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- 12,451
So, is it going to snow this year or what? I don't understand all these fancy charts, just give it to me straight.
Too early to tell
Winter 2019/2020
- Thread starter Rroff
- Start date
Too early to tell
Yeah sadly looks like the potential SSW is turning out to be just a glancing blow though still signs there might be more on that front to come. Lot of the potential for something wintery mid-month is biasing back towards zonal on the outputs tonight.
So, is it going to snow this year or what? I don't understand all these fancy charts, just give it to me straight.
Hard to tell really - the only thing that has been of note so far is that fairly early on wintery weather has been a possibility versus some years recently when the models had little to offer but zonal muck (rain, cool to mild temperatures and potentially windy).
Associate
The PV on some runs has been obliterated, not what you would expect to see for the start of December.
Saying that, last year we always seemed to be at t+240 with an SSW on our doorstep only for it to never materialize.....I really don't want a repeat of last winter.
Saying that, last year we always seemed to be at t+240 with an SSW on our doorstep only for it to never materialize.....I really don't want a repeat of last winter.
Soldato
It was balmy warm on Saturday, actually managed to get out in the garden to do a few bits in just a t-shirt. Got a bit breezy Saturday night but missed most of the storm.
Not sure what to make of the latest models - seems any impact SSW wise is glancing and with quite a bit of support for central/eastern Europe seeing uncharacteristically mild weather towards mid/end of December but some hints it might play out longer term as splitting the PV. The only consolation I can take is that at least there isn't a shortage of options - I like some variation in the weather hate it when winter just turns into cool, rainy (zonal) muck for weeks on end.
However Wednesday some should some the odd flurry - doesn't look like show stopping stuff even by Southern standards though :s probably wet mush at best.
Though other models like Arpege show it as contained mostly to high ground over North West Scotland.
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Soldato
- Joined
- 16 Aug 2009
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Wasn't anywhere near that warm here still had to wear two coats, thats still much less cold than the previous saturday though that was a four coat day lol
Spent the entire afternoon outside collected a mountain of leaves and cut the grass
Ah this is so frustrating LOL no shortage of options for some wintery weather but it just doesn't seem to come off with lots of signals for continued cool, rainy weather and possible more flooding.
Some indications of potential for a very strong SSW event early in January but the polar vortex seems more resilient than usual at the moment shrugging off previous potential disruptions with ease.
Some indications of potential for a very strong SSW event early in January but the polar vortex seems more resilient than usual at the moment shrugging off previous potential disruptions with ease.
warmest December on record here by a massive margin. met service called it before end of the month the margin is so large it is unbeatable. 6C above average, some areas were 10C above average.
Temps hit 15C here o. Wednesday, daytime high should be about 3-4.
Temps hit 15C here o. Wednesday, daytime high should be about 3-4.
Soldato
Rain rain and more rain, nothing worse than wet December and wet Xmas.
Soldato
It was lovely this morning from ~0930-1200 in Shirley, even wore my work shorts for the first time in weeks, but then the rain gradually returned.
Hoping the current Met Office forecast for tomorrow rings true, it might even be dry in our neck of the woods, in which case I might even ride my road bike outdoors after removing it from the turbo for the first time in weeks!
Soldato
- Joined
- 16 Aug 2009
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Its barely stopped raining for the last 2 weeks and its raining now. Roads are flooded right left and centre even the motorway was closed yesterday under a foot of water in places. 3 months of drought during summer and now its making up for it.
Bascially every xmas then. Well it should be dry next week for the first half of the week at least that'll do me.
Bascially every xmas then. Well it should be dry next week for the first half of the week at least that'll do me.
Soldato
I'm getting really bored of the rain now. I hate rain.
Soldato
- Joined
- 25 Nov 2005
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No chance of a cold Christmas when Moscow is looking at 9 degrees on Monday
Saw a nasty one on the way back from work early hours of this morning - the outside lane of the dual carriageway was flooded completely for about 30 yards (level with the verge) on the inside of a bend and in the dark completely invisible before you hit it - 2 cars had already had incidents before I got there looked like they'd rolled from the damage - fortunately police had put signs out before I got there.
Soldato
Up in west Yorkshire at my parents, sun's out and hardly any wind can't complain, heading down to Oxford tommorow,
Soldato
Shortest day of the year yesterday. Winter is here and the days will now begin to get longer, huzzah!
I'm no expert but it isn't looking to me like any of these potential SSWs are going to come off - the cold is just clinging on over the arctic every run it is just looking too strong to be displaced. Though the polar vortex can collapse very suddenly and often does from its strongest state I'm just not seeing it in the current setup - on the other hand it seems to be coming almost constantly under assault this year with indications of more to come so plenty of chances for it to still happen maybe later in January.
Soldato
Official sunset time gets longer from here on in, but only in recent years I became aware (or I previously knew but forgot, far more likely!) that we still have not had the latest official sunrise time... Boxing Day in Southampton begins a series of mornings where sunrise is at 0808, but today and the next two days it's 0807.