When are you going fully electric?

[Uther]

Either people are going to have to change the way they think about travelling anywhere, or EV technology is going to have to make some major leaps. Currently I can drive to Scotland and back from the middle of the UK with one ten minute refueling stop.
Until people can do that in an EV for the same sort of cost then the whole thing is going to feel like a non starter.

 

[b0rn2sk8]

@SkodaMart your post is so clearly uninformed, I don’t really know where to start.

@Orionaut your right it’s back of an envelope and that probably took an age to type out. It’s a shame it’s completely flawed.

A few people have said the national grid is going to have a huge meltdown or loads of power stations will need to be built to manage demand. Serious question, have you checked to see what the national grid (you know the people who balance electricity supply and demand) says about it?

Spoiler, they don’t think it’s a problem. The UK has ample generating capacity and it doesn’t take any special sauce to manage EV demand, the tech already exists. Likewise EVs are also not just going to take over over night. It’s going to take decades to replace all the ICE cars with EVs through their natural attrition. An ICE or hybrid sold in 2030 will still be around in 2045, that’s 25 years away...

 

[Nasher]

Back of envelope numbers.

There may be some wriggle room, but the orders of magnitude cant be too far out....

Consider the typical filling station, let alone a motorway one.

Combine the typical range that the average (IE not the super expensive high-performance ones) consumer EV is likely to be capable of and the speed at which it can be recharged.

"Little" station just down the road has 8 filling "Slots"

To have a similar utility in terms of charging capacity, it will need 2/4 times as many slots due to range limitations and another 2/4 times as many slots because of charging time.

(Oh and before anybody mentions home charging, While this reduces the charge point problem to some extent, it doesn’t really solve the overall electrical capacity one of course. It just sends it somewhere else)

IE up to 16 times as many slots.

To achieve the same effective refuelling capacity (Time taken x frequency of refuelling) my local filling station will need nearer 100 charge points (Perhaps even more).

Let us ignore the fact that it simply doesn’t have room for this.

Now, assume they each have up to 100 Kw charging capacity.

That means that for even a "Small" recharge station to have the same overall capacity as a petrol/diesel one, it will need an electrical supply capacity in excess of 10MW

That will need its own personal substation, with its own personal 33Kv supply. (Maybe even higher if it is a long way from the local "Big" substation!)

Apply the same numbers to a motorway services, which currently most people will try to avoid like the plague because of high costs, Now factor in even more extra capacity because people will need to make multiple recharges during long journeys, rather than fill up before setting off and filling up at the destination, because with EV's they will have to because of range limitations,

To meet the requirements of increased demand and those of increased usage. To achieve similar utility, a motorways services might need a 50-100 MW supply or even more.

We are looking at small power station levels of power here. Enough to run a small city.

Now multiply this for all current filling stations all over the country. serving say 30,000,000 cars

In the Rainbow Unicorn matrix world, all a politician with a classics degree needs to do is sign a pice of paper and it will be done.

Back in the real world however, I really cant see it.

Even if we built the 30 or more Sizewell B's that would need to operate flat out to meet this overall increase in daily electricity demand we would still have to massively increase the capacity of the entire electrical distribution system. Not just at national grid level but right down to door to door domestic level.

And to try to achieve this using mainly/only "Renewables", especially at a time when there is also pressure to replace gas with electricity for space heating is utter fantasy.

What all this illustrates is the extent to which most people grotesquely underestimate the massive utility that we get from fossil fuels and the near insurmountable task it will be to find an even only reasonably practical alternative.

And no. Hydrogen is not going to do it either It is a rotten fuel for transport vehicles, fine for rockets (Though even then not always) but rotten for transport generally.

Turning petrol stations into charging points probably wouldn't be profitable enough to be viable.

Most people are going to be charging at home or where they are going. If range eventually tops 500 miles they would barely get used.

 

[jpaul]

Interesting that BEV sales were 14% of the diesel total, and last year it was 2.8%!

by numbers, mild hybrid seems to have soaked up a lot of the diesel reduction , is it difficult to avoid buying one if you buy Ford ? ... hopefully wltp figures really justify them.

Currently I can drive to Scotland and back from the middle of the UK with one ten minute refueling stop.

if you can drive electric at half the cost, will you care about the journey taking an hour longer, you can stop for a meal, and pay for it with the saving - will motorway service stations have a rejuvination.

 

[Nasher]

And hope the charging points work, sometimes they don't

A work colleague got caught out like that. Had to stay over-night because the AA had to wait until morning for a flatbed with a crane. The EV couldn't simply be towed using the normal vans.

 

[Kenai]

Either people are going to have to change the way they think about travelling anywhere, or EV technology is going to have to make some major leaps. Currently I can drive to Scotland and back from the middle of the UK with one ten minute refueling stop.
Until people can do that in an EV for the same sort of cost then the whole thing is going to feel like a non starter.

It will be a non-starter for a handful of people but that sort of thinking could be applied to so many forms of transport.

Trains are a non-starter because they can't go door to door. But plenty of people use those.
Bikes are a non-starter because you get wet when it rains. But plenty of people use those.
Buses are a non-starter because they're always bloody late. But plenty of people use those.
Cars are a non-starter because you can't even refill it (with a flammable liquid) at home. But more than plenty of people use those.

There will always be niche use cases that make a given technology less suitable to varying degrees to different people. Someone trying to traverse half the country in one go isn't typical usage for anything more than a handful of people and doesn't make the entire idea of EVs a non-starter.

In reality, when you look at the average mileages car users do generally, most people would probably actually only need to charge their EV once a week

 

[stuman]

Either people are going to have to change the way they think about travelling anywhere, or EV technology is going to have to make some major leaps. Currently I can drive to Scotland and back from the middle of the UK with one ten minute refueling stop.
Until people can do that in an EV for the same sort of cost then the whole thing is going to feel like a non starter.

lol, the casual day out, just drive 1200 miles with no stops. Don't eat, don't really drink, because then you would have to pee and get DVT from sitting for 20 hours with no break. Sounds like great lols.

you're right, absolute non-starter because I can't just drive 1200 miles on a whim.

Me and the wife did a road trip this summer around Scotland, was a couple of 1000 miles in total, the longest day was the first to get us to Glasgow, which was around 5 hours with a stop and lunch. It was 255 miles. Even if we swapped the car for the new e-mini and could only do 120miles, we would only need 2 stops and those would not be full stops either around 20 mins each to put enough charge in to get us there.

Funnily enough, whilst doing the NW500 many of the places we stopped had fast chargers, there were also ecotricity fast chargers in many of the popular places as well. I think when we do trade in, we will recreate the roadtrip, but in EV fashion.

 

[adam cool dude]

I agree entirely. I really think we forget how far we have come in terms of tech and it's amazing when you look back. In 2004/2005, 15 years ago, this was one of the most advanced pieces of consumer tech out there.

I don't think it even had Bluetooth. In fact, Bluetooth wasn't even a thing that anyone really knew about. Same as WiFi. If you could get a signal to send a 160 character text message, without standing next to the upstairs window for 5 minutes, you were in luck. People still answered their home landline phone and said the phone number before they spoke. Half the people in the country still had to listen to their computer making musical noises before they could go on AOL chat. And then would tie up the phone line for hours at a time so no one could get through. The idea of an iPhone with a touchscreen was still several years away. Google Maps hadn't been invented yet, Google Street View was not even an idea then.

Having Sat Nav in cars was reserved for top end cars only and most of the screens were about 100 pixels x 200 pixels. The E39 BMW M5 was still (almost) the current pinnacle of super saloons and tech in a car. Many cars still had phones in the centre console. Self driving cars was literally something from sci-fi movies still. Cars running off electricity was something a very, very small number of manufacturers were even playing with and making the odd one as a prototype.

This is just 15 years ago.

As with all tech, things accelerate geometrically. So 15 years to get EV cars where it's the only thing you can buy from a dealer is pretty unambitious considering that many of the EV's out at the moment are not too bad at all. In the 5 years I'd expect there to have an explosion in the amount of EV's on the road and for them to be much better. In 10 years, i'd expect EV's to be head and shoulders better than they are now, with them even more efficient with the same size batteries, and bigger battery packs. If the Government aren't morons, they should be predicting this and should start building EV infrastructure like...right now. The first way they do this is by getting low cost offshore wind farms up, building a few nuclear power plants and getting rid of gas/coal power. That's half the battle won. The next half is getting it to people's homes, but in the next 5 years, i don't think that is going to be a problem.

Did you live in a cave 15 years ago? I had 10mb broadband and Bluetooth on a few items. My head unit in my car was blue tooth and I had wireless internet as well.

Albeit the tech had gotten a lot faster it was there 15 years ago.

 

[Orionaut]

And hope the charging points work, sometimes they don't

A work colleague got caught out like that. Had to stay over-night because the AA had to wait until morning for a flatbed with a crane. The EV couldn't simply be towed using the normal vans.

And don't forget. If you arrive at the "filling station" and there are two people in the queue in front of you. It will be a 40-60 minute wait, plus your own recharging time, rather than the 10 minute one before you get your turn currently.

(Unless as I was suggesting, the number of "Pumps" at recharge stations is increased massively over those currently available at a hydrocarbon one)

 

[Nasher]

You could have lots of charging points, but you also need room for all the cars to actually park up without blocking each other in. Petrol station premises aren't that big.

 

[adam cool dude]

lol, the casual day out, just drive 1200 miles with no stops. Don't eat, don't really drink, because then you would have to pee and get DVT from sitting for 20 hours with no break. Sounds like great lols.

you're right, absolute non-starter because I can't just drive 1200 miles on a whim.

Me and the wife did a road trip this summer around Scotland, was a couple of 1000 miles in total, the longest day was the first to get us to Glasgow, which was around 5 hours with a stop and lunch. It was 255 miles. Even if we swapped the car for the new e-mini and could only do 120miles, we would only need 2 stops and those would not be full stops either around 20 mins each to put enough charge in to get us there.

Funnily enough, whilst doing the NW500 many of the places we stopped had fast chargers, there were also ecotricity fast chargers in many of the popular places as well. I think when we do trade in, we will recreate the roadtrip, but in EV fashion.

I did 1200 miles two years ago with just two fuel stops in 19 hours. My house to north eastern Poland. Myself and the wife took it in turns doing stints so no silly stopping about.

Hopefully in 15 years time EV's will be able to do that. I understand that is an extreme situation but the point is an ICE can do it.

 

[Orionaut]

I agree entirely. I really think we forget how far we have come in terms of tech and it's amazing when you look back. In 2004/2005, 15 years ago, this was one of the most advanced pieces of consumer tech out there.

Back in the early 80's when I got my first "Mobile" I had to charge it up every night.

Back when I had a phone like "That" one, The batteries would last a week or even more.

Now I am back to having to charge the damn thing up every night again!

Progress. Weyyyyy!

If the Government aren't morons

If, If, If!

 

[Kenai]

You could have lots of charging points, but you also need room for all the cars to actually park up without blocking each other in. Petrol station premises aren't that big.

But the burden on petrol stations would be reduced somewhat to offset that, because a lot of people would have home charging facility and would rarely, if ever, need to visit one. If I made the switch to EV tomorrow, home charging would cover 99.9% of my journeys more than adequately, I wouldn't even be thinking about where I might need to charge away from home except for the odd specific trip.

You can be more flexible with a cable than you can with a pump too - you wouldn't necessarily try and replicate the 'drive thru' style of current stations, a couple of rows of parking spaces would probably work better and you'd have far less concern about people wanting to be on the 'correct side' of their car to connect and stuff like that.

 

[Nasher]

I bought a brick phone off ebay maybe 5 years ago (a "modern" one). The battery on that lasts about 3 months and you can use it as a club.

 

[Journey]

People seem to be missing out on one of the biggest 're-filling issues' what people now do a 'splash-n-dash' where you divert out of your way to a fuel station pop £10 in just to get you to where you are going, can't do that in a BEV. Even a Tesla Model 3 on a Mk3 Supercharger would take 6 minutes to add 70-90 miles of range from a low state of charge. I mean can you imagine the terrible inconvenience of waiting for 6 minutes to add enough range for an entire days worth of use for more than the majority of people.

The other massive issue facing the popularity of BEV take up will be the huge amount of destination chargers that will be in almost every parking structure, supermarket, gym, train station, work place, and even the local pubs. Where on your visit you can add some charge at little to no cost, while you complete the activity that you went to that place for in the first place, how stupid is that, it'll never work I tell you!!! Finishing work getting back to your car with a full 'tank' or coming out of the gym after a workout having only added 28 miles of range, only 5x the amount you need to get home again, utterly daft.

You can tell the majority of people posting in this thread, have never actually researched BEV's let alone driven or owned one.

 

[ecksmen]

People seem to be missing out on one of the biggest 're-filling issues' what people now do a 'splash-n-dash' where you divert out of your way to a fuel station pop £10 in just to get you to where you are going, can't do that in a BEV. Even a Tesla Model 3 on a Mk3 Supercharger would take 6 minutes to add 70-90 miles of range from a low state of charge. I mean can you imagine the terrible inconvenience of waiting for 6 minutes to add enough range for an entire days worth of use for more than the majority of people.

The other massive issue facing the popularity of BEV take up will be the huge amount of destination chargers that will be in almost every parking structure, supermarket, gym, train station, work place, and even the local pubs. Where on your visit you can add some charge at little to no cost, while you complete the activity that you went to that place for in the first place, how stupid is that, it'll never work I tell you!!! Finishing work getting back to your car with a full 'tank' or coming out of the gym after a workout having only added 28 miles of range, only 5x the amount you need to get home again, utterly daft.

You can tell the majority of people posting in this thread, have never actually researched BEV's let alone driven or owned one.

I've never doubted the potential, but similarly the government to somehow screw it up. There's been less significant projects undertaken recently that have failed completely, or failed significantly. I'm sure the future is electric, but its not going to be a simple nor easy to get their knowing how incompetent as a nation we can be.

 

[Bug One]

You can tell the majority of people posting in this thread, have never actually researched BEV's let alone driven or owned one.

Absolutely.

 

[Uther]

Hence why I said people will reevaluate how they do things. Personally speaking by the time the ICE ban comes in I won't be driving much anyway.
And yes, I fully expect the government to screw it up.

 

[Simon]

Look at smart meters as an example of how we ‘upgrade’ the infrastructure.

 

[2004typer]

Just out of interest - not a criticism - what were the reasons you opted for a PHEV rather than a fully electric?

I occasionally do longer drives for work and for holidays so was worried about the infrastructure for charging.....plus there wasn't many options on the company car list for a full electric. My options seem to be capped at about 32k max value without having to put in significant personal contribution. Plus the majority of our daily drive (90% plus) is less than 30 miles, so hopefully I'll get most of the benefit of an electric car (except on cold days - I understand the Niro PHEV uses the engine for heating.....but hopefully this won't use much fuel once the cabin is warm).