The moves are volatile from the hot money, lowest rates ever puts a lot of 'liquidity' into the market which must leave and repay their debts where as solid pension money wont move as fast. Shortest bear market ever is comment I heard from veteran trader and I agree for the same reasons it fell it can rise.
The sensible thing is to find good companies that yield because cash is negative yield, bonds lose vs inflation without QE to repurchase them.
Theres a larger argument about QE, about deficit and surplus budgets. All kinds but the sum total is they wont stop easy money policy till it totally fails like spinning your wheels in the mud. The virus as a natural effect is pretty much a perfect storm but long term its not changing a massive amount afaik.
The reentry point in a sensible way is to scale back in over a year. I think its cheap enough here, 5% rates arent possible, USA cannot service debt at that rate and sensible currency standards arent going to happen.
This is not the worst sell possible, SP500 isnt even at 2016 prices. Thats only 4 years retraction, I'm sure thats happened before.
If it falls further I'd like to buy
JII at lower prices I havent changed my mind for 20 years on that one so I'd be more disappointed if I didnt rebuy my previous holdings this year as it just performs so well.
I think telecoms and utilities are still valid and gold miners will still have a product in net demand for the last decade and the next, + with cheap oil.
Risky take would be RMG, has to be worth a look to think about it and do they gain revenue now or not.
Some of the move is forced selling from leverage, so it creates excess, over reaction, inaccurate pricing and opportunity to those who dont have to worry so much.
What did you short, and at what level? Trying to call the top with the way the CBs run things these days is no doubt a risky game
Yea it was just a side hedge from the autumn, I consider allocation to gold the sensible hedge and I think I'll stick to that because bear markets have massive rallys. I dont want to worry and watch a price all the time, the cases for each company is far more interesting.
The gold miners fell also in recent days so some will think they arent so great then but they make money afaik and thats my interest. Gold wont fall year to year vs QE bonds thats my bet, false/fixed vs free markets.
*I still got shorts on
BTC if that counts but it should tail off eventually as only so much money there is leveraged. Its already in the area of the longer term base, I think lock down helps it some probably helps a few products, companies even.
I can't see the markets stabalising any time soon so what's the point staying in?
Examine the company not the market price as much. Private investors hold losers too long, sell winners too early; we all share a common mistake with incorrect perspective. If the company does business, has cashflow, revenue with efficient process and can make a profit you dont need to sell. Cash is a certain loss as your bills will be more next year, some of those companies who can raise their bills to consumers are worth holding.
