Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)

Soldato
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Just went to setup a few trade plans on Halifax. Looks like stopping money being added to account and stopping limit Orders
  • Transfers: we have temporarily paused all inward transfers of stock and cash, and transfers between accounts.
  • TradePlans: you can no longer set up new TradePlans. All existing TradePlans will stay active until they trigger or expire.
Try sharebuilder, regular on a day buy scheme with min 2 quid charge

I would guess BP can expand upwards from here but really should be looking or examining oil itself. Anyhow of course I put a stoploss and like a magnet the market wants to go there as soon as I do so its partly gone but I aim to trade it anyway.
yea the afternoon price shows why, 340 is a good foothold right upto 370. It can repeat this action.
 
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Soldato
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I would guess BP can expand upwards from here but really should be looking or examining oil itself. Anyhow of course I put a stoploss and like a magnet the market wants to go there as soon as I do so its partly gone but I aim to trade it anyway.
yea the afternoon price shows why, 340 is a good foothold right upto 370. It can repeat this action.

Do you not think BP is gonna follow the general market though?

I personally think the market is going down again, so it looks likely that BP will test those mid 200's again.
 
Soldato
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But if you're holding a diversified portfolio that is adequately managed over a long enough time horizon, then those risks are much lower than for an investor trying to pick short-term wins by picking stocks.

Worth a read https://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-short-michael-burry-bearish-101844573.html same guy who predicted the 08 bubble has been predicting an index/etf bubble since last year, I think it's something like 50/50 of the entire market is funded via the index/etf's vs actively managed funds with the majority of investors in those funds doing zero price discovery on what their passive funds represent
 
Associate
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Still licking my wounds from the last month :(

However, been keeping an eye on Begbies Traynor Group PLC 'Confidential Business Rescue Advice. Licensed Insolvency Practitioners - the UK's No.1 for Business Recovery' quoted from their website. Looks like these guys could still be busy even with all the government support for businesses. Bought in at 66.20 a week ago. They are listed on the AIM Index!!

Not even looking at my Pensions/SIPPS :(
 
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Worth a read https://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-short-michael-burry-bearish-101844573.html same guy who predicted the 08 bubble has been predicting an index/etf bubble since last year, I think it's something like 50/50 of the entire market is funded via the index/etf's vs actively managed funds with the majority of investors in those funds doing zero price discovery on what their passive funds represent

I totally agree with him, and many others have been calling that bubble before he was - if you're investing in cap-weighted, index-replicating vehicles then there's naturally going to be a top-heavy distribution to the influx of assets. That's why I never recommend my clients use passives. Just look at how much money Vanguard has sucked in over the past few years and then compare that to how the top 5 stocks in the S&P500 have driven most of its growth and it isn't a massive logical leap to join the dots. It's great on the way up, but it will accelerate just as much, if not more, on the way down. As much as I respect Jack Bogle, he created a monster.

When the market is on a tear, everybody yaks on about why active management is dead and is too expensive and adds no value, yet those same people are the ones filling their nappies when the market is on a downturn.
 
Soldato
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I totally agree with him, and many others have been calling that bubble before he was - if you're investing in cap-weighted, index-replicating vehicles then there's naturally going to be a top-heavy distribution to the influx of assets. That's why I never recommend my clients use passives. Just look at how much money Vanguard has sucked in over the past few years and then compare that to how the top 5 stocks in the S&P500 have driven most of its growth and it isn't a massive logical leap to join the dots. It's great on the way up, but it will accelerate just as much, if not more, on the way down. As much as I respect Jack Bogle, he created a monster.

When the market is on a tear, everybody yaks on about why active management is dead and is too expensive and adds no value, yet those same people are the ones filling their nappies when the market is on a downturn.
Where's the proof that active management is better in a downturn that passive? I'm all for passive and I haven't yet filled my nappy, what's the rationale for thinking people who prefer passive investment are more likely to **** themselves? I do agree somewhat the the big influx in passive funds is a bit of a one-time artificial inflation though.
 
Soldato
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Do you not think BP is gonna follow the general market though?

I personally think the market is going down again, so it looks likely that BP will test those mid 200's again.

Oil is doing well at present but I guess BP is going in line with usage, GDP. Because of the whole index thing it can sell off I guess, in general prices can be inaccurate. Burry isnt wrong but I dont know its something to fear exactly, people will just move to performing funds. He doesnt run an open fund afaik, who can blame him
Posting up some gobbly gook, we're down today and in the week but staying above 244 is still bullish for SPY on daily bars. Losing this area gives us the dynamic of '08; bailout then more falls for like 5 months anyway. Within that were some prices which were good to hold months before market generally had a bottom.
Its just harder to know which, I doubt deaths have entered decline as a rate and who is really going to relax before some cure, treatment or vaccine progresses so its not likely inversely market is at worse. However markets act in anticipation mostly, except unknowns
 
Soldato
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Oil is doing well at present but I guess BP is going in line with usage, GDP. Because of the whole index thing it can sell off I guess, in general prices can be inaccurate. Burry isnt wrong but I dont know its something to fear exactly, people will just move to performing funds. He doesnt run an open fund afaik, who can blame him

Posting up some gobbly gook, we're down today and in the week but staying above 244 is still bullish for SPY on daily bars. Losing this area gives us the dynamic of '08; bailout then more falls for like 5 months anyway. Within that were some prices which were good to hold months before market generally had a bottom.
Its just harder to know which, I doubt deaths have entered decline as a rate and who is really going to relax before some cure, treatment or vaccine progresses so its not likely inversely market is at worse. However markets act in anticipation mostly, except unknowns

The weekly chart on the DOW looks horrendous, so my take is that its going to find a new lows over the next few weeks, i wouldn't be surprised if we get some news over the weekend that kick starts the whole thing off.
 
Caporegime
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I really don't get why oil is back up? Russia has said no multiple times... I mean there's literally a limit on how much storage there is, that'll stop everyone anyway.
 
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Where's the proof that active management is better in a downturn that passive? I'm all for passive and I haven't yet filled my nappy, what's the rationale for thinking people who prefer passive investment are more likely to **** themselves? I do agree somewhat the the big influx in passive funds is a bit of a one-time artificial inflation though.

My clients' money is down, since the February peak, on average 12% versus the market being closer to 25%. If you're buying passives you're getting the market, less fees. :confused:

e: if you really want to go hell for leather, if you're buying passives then you're usually buying cap-weighted index trackers, which means you're fly fishing with a lead weight at the end of your rod, i.e. it goes up quickly but drops just as fast.
 
Associate
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My clients' money is down, since the February peak, on average 12% versus the market being closer to 25%. If you're buying passives you're getting the market, less fees. :confused:

e: if you really want to go hell for leather, if you're buying passives then you're usually buying cap-weighted index trackers, which means you're fly fishing with a lead weight at the end of your rod, i.e. it goes up quickly but drops just as fast.

Many invest for the long term, so unless expecting to cash out on a crash, it doesn't matter how much a fund drops, what matters is the overall growth over say 20 years. From everything I've seen, passive beats active funds 9 times out of 10 when fees are included.
 
Soldato
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Really depends on the fees and how its structured, active doesnt have to be very expensive. Im mostly concerned on whether they offer any discernible advantage and thats why many goto passive, but thats partly on the customer failing to find a good product. Also I can trade passive myself without many costs, someone doing that is being active management.


20 years is a bit long, 6 years maybe 10 but I dont think we'll be waiting that long for current assets to be worth more then the cash required to own them. Any spike down from here is why scaling works, market gets irrational. The shale oil and gas isnt going away and will exist in 50 years from now but the companies who borrowed to then try and pay it back with extracted resource sales, they'll be taken over by larger firms. The debt will get defaulted on, I dont think this factor by itself is enough to call deflation or cash is king situation. More relevant is recovery rates % etc. on this virus and Im not clear on that.

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Solid dude, trading 30 years does this every week but thats 100% risky TA trading strat. I followed him like 12 years, always been legit operator imo
https://alphatrends.net/media/

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

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