Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)

[Serb]

Question; would folks be able to offer some thoughts as to why RBS shares are falling over the last three months?

https://www.fool.co.uk/investing/20...crashed-to-a-3-year-low-heres-what-id-do-now/

I appreciate historic issues pre/post 2008 as well as brand issues, but over the past year the bank appears to have cleared its feet (balance sheet stress resilience, end of PPI etc). In my view there is potential for the bank to return to a profitable core business, so what am I missing with the recent share price falls?

 

[Bounce]

Question; would folks be able to offer some thoughts as to why RBS shares are falling over the last three months?

https://www.fool.co.uk/investing/20...crashed-to-a-3-year-low-heres-what-id-do-now/

I appreciate historic issues pre/post 2008 as well as brand issues, but over the past year the bank appears to have cleared its feet (balance sheet stress resilience, end of PPI etc). In my view there is potential for the bank to return to a profitable core business, so what am I missing with the recent share price falls?

Well interest rates are at an all time low, and the fact that coronavirus will affect the world economy. Any UK bank would not be a wise stock choice imo.

 

[Jokester]

Banks are exposed to a housing market crash.

 

[tlrBeta]

Question; would folks be able to offer some thoughts as to why RBS shares are falling over the last three months?

https://www.fool.co.uk/investing/20...crashed-to-a-3-year-low-heres-what-id-do-now/

I appreciate historic issues pre/post 2008 as well as brand issues, but over the past year the bank appears to have cleared its feet (balance sheet stress resilience, end of PPI etc). In my view there is potential for the bank to return to a profitable core business, so what am I missing with the recent share price falls?

- Stopped dividends
- Likely decrease in revenue due to current climate (less spending).

Well interest rates are at an all time low, and the fact that coronavirus will affect the world economy. Any UK bank would not be a wise stock choice imo.

Not sure i fully agree here.

Lower interest rates mean cheaper borrowing. The question is will people/companies borrow.

In terms of shares, If you're after quick returns, banks won't be the best place. However, they are the best placed to survive the current climate and they will recover.

 

[The_Abyss]

Not sure i fully agree here.

Lower interest rates mean cheaper borrowing. The question is will people/companies borrow.

In terms of shares, If you're after quick returns, banks won't be the best place. However, they are the best placed to survive the current climate and they will recover.

There needs to be liquidity and a willingness to lend. We're getting corporate rates of 150 - 160 bps for 3 month money at the moment from some banks - they're absolutely desperate for cash.

 

[Serb]

Well interest rates are at an all time low, and the fact that coronavirus will affect the world economy. Any UK bank would not be a wise stock choice imo.

Granted, but the trend started before the current pandemic started to become a global issue and the BoE response. Having a quick look at other banks, such as Lloyd’s, they also appear to have had a dip starting at the same time . Was this just a market reaction to the initial Chinese outbreak?

 

[tlrBeta]

There needs to be liquidity and a willingness to lend. We're getting corporate rates of 150 - 160 bps for 3 month money at the moment from some banks - they're absolutely desperate for cash.

Oh I agree, from what I am aware though, there is no issue of fund availability. With or without holding dividends back. I appreciate RBS now have an extra £1bn from that decision (not like they needed it)

Are those rates not government driven?

Your last point willingness is key also, i also question the ability to actual action currently given huge drops in work force. (Both UK and India)

However, back to future share performance, for me RBS long term is good

A few other companies I have kept an eye on:

- HSBC
- Visa & Mastercard
- Zoom (I had predicted the jump on 27th Feb but didnt buy before it happened grrr)

 

[Ironic Namesake]

I’m not sure about ZM - a lot of bad press RE privacy concerns, some schools aren’t allowing it to be used anymore for that reason.

Not to mention a crazy valuation and we don’t know how many of these new users are actually using a paid subscription.

I have a short on ZM at the moment FWIW (opened at $140)

 

[tlrBeta]

I’m not sure about ZM - a lot of bad press RE privacy concerns, some schools aren’t allowing it to be used anymore for that reason.

Not to mention a crazy valuation and we don’t know how many of these new users are actually using a paid subscription.

I have a short on ZM at the moment FWIW (opened at $140)

I haven't seen any real evidence, only discussion Eg. A cyber threat ecurity analyst entering passworded meetings with just the ID etc.

That said, I got in too late - relatively small amount of money. I need it to rise up again so I can aim to break even.

For those using 212trading, I would like to use this instead of my HL account. Is there any fees for depositing and withdrawing funds? Any delays when withdrawing?

Thanks

 

[Ironic Namesake]

I haven't seen any real evidence, only discussion Eg. A cyber threat ecurity analyst entering passworded meetings with just the ID etc.

That said, I got in too late - relatively small amount of money. I need it to rise up again so I can aim to break even.

For those using 212trading, I would like to use this instead of my HL account. Is there any fees for depositing and withdrawing funds? Any delays when withdrawing?

Thanks

There’s new articles popping up about ZM daily - this time about it being banned by NYC schools. Planning to get out @ $115

 

[Simon]

Zoom have loads of new customers
Who pay nothing yet their overheads have gone up as they outsource hosting.

Don’t really see how they have value after this and hence the recent drops. The big winner is their host. Azure or AWS probably

 

[tlrBeta]

There’s new articles popping up about ZM daily - this time about it being banned by NYC schools. Planning to get out @ $115

Oh I have seen them, however right now all i see is scaremongering.

We shall see I guess

Zoom have loads of new customers
Who pay nothing yet their overheads have gone up as they outsource hosting.

Don’t really see how they have value after this and hence the recent drops. The big winner is their host. Azure or AWS probably

I agree conversion rate predictions are always interesting.

Hosting probably going through the roof!

 

[Yucca]

More online video calling seems like it’s here to stay long term. So if zoom has issues and is a ‘fad’ then how about old school Microsoft?

If people drop zoom they are likely to move to teams right?

Which company does well out of all the hosting for zoom, houseparty, Skype and Microsoft teams?

 

[Russinating]

As has been said here a few times, and it's no hard guess, Azure (Microsoft) or AWS (Amazon). They're basically the only cloud hosting platforms up to the task, and any sizeable platform could even be using both to spread the load and manage redundancy.

There's Alibaba too which something less important like Houseparty might use but there's always the Chinese risk, even if it's solely a PR one.

 

[Skeptic]

Could be a good day. Was the bottom 2 weeks ago or is this FOMO? Either way, timing the bottom was always going to be difficult, so if it’s gone, it’s gone...

 

[keylion]

Could be a good day. Was the bottom 2 weeks ago or is this FOMO? Either way, timing the bottom was always going to be difficult, so if it’s gone, it’s gone...

Been thinking this too. I thought the bottom was still to come but I'm now wondering if it was a couple of weeks ago.

 

[tlrBeta]

Lets see what happens when the US opens up,

I'm not sure why there is so much positivity being spoken about yet.

1) We are yet to peak
2) US Nowhere near
3) Likely second wave?

 

[Skeptic]

Because this event has an end. It's not based on some fundamental systemic problem; it's an illness that, in time, will go away. Whether there's 10 spikes or this is it, we know that it will end, and the markets may have priced that in. Why can't the economy pick up where it left off?

 

[platinum87]

Could be a good day. Was the bottom 2 weeks ago or is this FOMO? Either way, timing the bottom was always going to be difficult, so if it’s gone, it’s gone...

Don't worry, you did not miss the bottom.

And yes, it is a fundamental systemic problem.

 

[Minusorange]

They both talk logically, I guess trying to wonder if the bottom was hit or if we're still in a bubble is a case of choosing your poison, nobody really knows, they can only go on what has historically occurred during previous bubbles/crashes and try to match the numbers

Obviously a crash is gradual though, there will be drops and there will be rallies, it's not all one direction