That’s how I see the premier league ending this season, it would be funny if West Ham were the ones to go down
Football and the Coronavirus
- Thread starter Robbo
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Just to be clear, there is a reason why League 1 and 2 will be ended and why the Championship won't be, or at least a decision won't be taken just yet. The cost of putting on matches with all the testing and safety protocols will be greater than the TV money these clubs will receive. For Championship clubs (and certainly PL) it makes financial sense to still put games on behind closed doors. Rick Parry also made the point when he spoke at the select committee that the decision to return will be taken in two parts, first to return to training and then, if possible, to return to playing matches. Without the guarantee that matches will restart, lots of lower League sides cannot restart training as they've placed their squads on furlough - imagine bringing them out of furlough, paying them for 2 months and then games don't resume, it would bankrupt them. The situation around contracts is much more of an issue the further you go down the Leagues too. Across the EFL over 1400 players are out of contract at the end of June (there is then a 1 month clause + guarantee of 1 months pay if they cannot find a new club), with the majority of those being from League 1 and 2 clubs. With no guarantee that the season will be finished before the end of July, you then have a very difficult job trying to resolve over 1000 player contracts.
Soldato
They're either piping the crowd noise on the TV feed or into the stadium it's actually ok, I prefer it to total silence like you usually have in behind closed doors games.
Get some specific noise from the the home teams fans for each game to make it a bit more authentic and I think it'll work.
Soldato
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Bournemouth are my local team and I've never been a fan of West Ham, Karen Brady, Sullivan or Gold, so this would be an absolutely hilarious outcome. However, it does sound more and more like the season will get going again behind closed doors. I wouldn't be surprised if BJ gives professional sports the green light to resume behind closed doors as part of his update on the lockdown on Sunday.
This is what Gary Neville was saying a few weeks ago, we're all focusing a lot on the PL and Championship but it's the lower leagues where things could be very tough. There's the very real possibility that mass gatherings aren't going to be allowed until there's a vaccine, and considering most League 1 and 2 clubs rely much more heavily on gate receipts, that could leave teams in those leagues in a very precarious position.
I suspect Brady, Gold and Sullivan won't be particularly popular amongst the other clubs either after Brady's antics, attempting to derail the restart. It's probably wishful thinking but if it did come to it, it would be great if they voted for a scenario that relegated West Ham.
League's 1 and 2, particularly the 1000+ players that are out of contract at the end of June, are ****ed regardless imo. If anybody is interested, Rick Parry's questions from the select committee are available to watch on the link below and it gives you a real insight into the state of the EFL. The focus about money in football is always on the PL but when you look at their 'business', it's a hell of a lot better run than the EFL. Championship wages (forgetting all other expenses) account for 106% of revenue, with losses totally around £320m per season across the League. League 1 & 2 are only marginally better with wages accounting for around 90% of revenue with losses of over £100m across the two leagues. You then look at squad sizes and you'll find League 2 clubs with 30+ senior players! It's utter madness.
Parry speaks about all of these issues and raised the possibility that the EFL may not be able to restart next season if games are to be behind closed doors and as terrible a situation that this is, maybe it's going to be the kick up the arse for the EFL to sort itself out. He mentions the need for a short-term bailout (and that the PL will talk to them about that if they can resume their season) but also his desire to implement a wage cap and make changes to the loan system that will allow EFL clubs to carry smaller squads and then be able to take PL youngsters on short-term deals. One thing is for certain though, each and every player out of contract will at best be facing a big wage cut and the ones at the bottom of League 2 will be looking for new jobs altogether very soon.
https://parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/0f28f808-e859-4ed1-a17b-e0484cf25b69
Player contracts must surely be the final nail in the coffin for project restart? players aren't going to want to sign a 1 month extension with the risk of injury jeopardizing a longer term contract once the season is over and even just 1 player not extending will throw the outcome of the season into dispute. We're supposed to be finishing the season not totally re-inventing it out of desperation. I can't see the Premier League relegating West Ham either but it would be funny, they've always struck me as one of the clubs the Premier League like to have around.
Seeing as clubs are actively planning to play beyond the end of June and even into August, clearly it's not the final nail in the coffin. The top leagues won't have a huge number of players who are out of contract at the end of June and the majority will sign short-term deals as it's in their interests to do so. The season not finishing will mean huge amounts of lost revenue - goodluck to any player out of contract trying to find a new club when nobody has any money.
Then just don't sign it and they are in limbo.
Let's take health out of it as I'm sure we all here would just end the season with some sort of ppg method. If this season isn't played out clubs will fold. Not just in the pram but lower leagues and possible some European clubs.
Soldato
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I was stunned at how high the wages are in League 1 and 2 when I looked them up. For some reason I had it in my head that players in League 2 were on about the average UK wage, but the average in League 1 is £1700-2500 per week and for League 2 it's £1300-1500. That equates to £81-96k p/a for League 1 and £62-72k for League 2. Considering average attendances in League 1 and League 2 are 8700 and 4600 respectively, that's completely bonkers. There definitely needs to be some sort of restructuring of the EFL, I can't see how they thought it was a viable business model.
https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/premier-league/endendevertraege/wettbewerb/GB1/jahr/2020/plus/1
That's the full list of players out of contract this summer. I think it's fair to say that most are either past their best or surplus to requirements at their club. There are one or two that teams won't want to lose (Fraser, Lundstram and Tanganga being the main ones), but mostly I think teams aren't interested in retaining those players anyway.
Soldato
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Swings and roundabouts
Aren't those in the last 6 months of their contact allowed to talk to other clubs from Jan? The better players on that list would have already secured a new club and contract.
Those without a new clubs, might feel it would be a good opportunity to secure a new 12 month deal at least.
Aren't those in the last 6 months of their contact allowed to talk to other clubs from Jan? The better players on that list would have already secured a new club and contract.
Those without a new clubs, might feel it would be a good opportunity to secure a new 12 month deal at least.
Soldato
Who decides the outcome if agreement cannot be reached on how to restart the season?
EDIT: Apparently it's the Premier League board.
If true it sounds like they hold all the cards and if they want a restart they get a restart.
EDIT: Apparently it's the Premier League board.
If true it sounds like they hold all the cards and if they want a restart they get a restart.
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Soldato
German league resumption next Saturday hits a stumbling block already, two Dresden squad members test positive, so whole squad in isolation for 14 days.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/52601471
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/52601471
Soldato
and this is the problem I can see being a huge stumbling block. What are we going to do when players test positive? Then 2 weeks later another tests positive.
The Bundesliga is planning to go ahead next weekend despite this and will rearrange the missed game(s). From what I understand the different states in Germany have different rules and this side has been forced to quarantine where as others with positive tests haven't*. The Bundesliga as a whole, and the PL, plan on treating positive players just like any other injury. The issue will come if one side end up with a big number of players testing positive but hopefully, with regular testing and quick results, they'll be able to catch anybody that's tested positive and isolate them quickly.
It's going to be interesting to see what protocols the government puts in place here - providing they don't insist on entire squads going into quarantine because of a positive test then what's happened in Germany won't be an issue here. Scheduling matches is going to be a nightmare though with potential for games to be postponed all over the place and Germany has a big advantage by starting a month before us in that regard.
*Cologne had 3 positive tests however only those that were positive were quarantined and on the next round of testing there were no new positive tests which positive, no pun intended.
It's going to be interesting to see what protocols the government puts in place here - providing they don't insist on entire squads going into quarantine because of a positive test then what's happened in Germany won't be an issue here. Scheduling matches is going to be a nightmare though with potential for games to be postponed all over the place and Germany has a big advantage by starting a month before us in that regard.
*Cologne had 3 positive tests however only those that were positive were quarantined and on the next round of testing there were no new positive tests which positive, no pun intended.
They probably used those dodgy tests that show false positives what with them being bottom of the league, Norwich take note.
3 Brighton players have now tested positive, if the premier league restarts things could get very messy if half a team needs to self isolate, can’t really force a team to play a game if most of your players are missing
Caporegime
Yeah I'm not a fan of treating self isolating like injuries.
If half the players are self-isolating then games will be postponed but hopefully the testing clubs do will prevent that from happening. It would be naive to think that there won't be PL players and staff that are currently positive and as soon as they return to training and are tested it will be flagged up - we've already seen this in Germany and it's not changed their plans. The key will be how effectively they detect them and isolate them to make sure it doesn't spread.
The different rules in the different states has complicated things in Germany though. IINM most states aren't insisting on squads going into quarantine if there's 1 poistive test but at least 1 state is and that's why Dresden have had to put their squad in isolation. Cologne, who had more positive tests, haven't and (touch wood) that decision has been justified by the fact that the next round of testing found no new positive tests. Until we know what the protocols are going to be here then it's hard to say how complicated things will be here. The PL want to treat positive players just like any injury but if the government insist on whole squads isolating because of 1 or 2 positive tests then that will make scheduling games a nightmare and may even prevent the season from finishing. If the government take a view similar to most other German states then individual positive tests won't stop the games going on.
Common sense will be used. If it's 1 or 2 players then they want to play on, if it's bigger numbers then I'm sure games will be postponed.
People have to be realistic with their expectations. Players will be testing positive - there will be players that are positive now and there will be players that catch the virus at varying points after the restart, whether that be through football or their daily life. If you start postponing games for 2 weeks every time one squad has a single positive test then it will take months to complete the season.