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The Great GPU shortage isn't ending anytime soon

Soldato
Joined
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5,207
That's actually how they used to do things before the Americans decided to start deifying Kiichiro Toyoda & copying his way of managing supply chains.
In normal times JIT works... but these aren't normal times.

Well, it looks like that's not sustainable anymore, especially if the next economic crisis largely becomes climate related. It would be extremely naive of these big companies to think JIT should remain long term with the consideration of any further economic disruption in the decade ahead...
 
Soldato
Joined
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7,595
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Eastbourne , East Sussex.
Well, it looks like that's not sustainable anymore, especially if the next economic crisis largely becomes climate related. It would be extremely naive of these big companies to think JIT should remain long term with the consideration of any further economic disruption in the decade ahead...


Stock sitting on a shelf is a cost for a business, and when margins are very tight, its a cost which was deemed unacceptable with JIT. Marx is spot on with the movement of capital , and why it needs to accumulate (he was a crap sociologist though)
 
Associate
Joined
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2,434
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Sussex
Well, it looks like that's not sustainable anymore, especially if the next economic crisis largely becomes climate related. It would be extremely naive of these big companies to think JIT should remain long term with the consideration of any further economic disruption in the decade ahead...
Plus the JIT dogma is based on really cheap transport costs - in the early 1990s a barrrel of crude was $10 - whereas slower transport tends to be more efficient so JIT becomes less viable as wasting energy on transport becomes less acceptable.

Road haulage is actually pretty ineffcient compared to train/boats/ships. Only air freigh is worse.
 
Soldato
Joined
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Posts
5,207
Plus the JIT dogma is based on really cheap transport costs - in the early 1990s a barrrel of crude was $10 - whereas slower transport tends to be more efficient so JIT becomes less viable as wasting energy on transport becomes less acceptable.

Road haulage is actually pretty ineffcient compared to train/boats/ships. Only air freigh is worse.

Yep. I think unless more companies start doing what Intel and Apple have been doing by bringing home their manufacturing for their chips, then there is going to be more disruption. Companies should start investing in doing that and stocking things rather than heavily relying on China for example and the ever increasing transport costs for JIT. Yes it will cost more, but long term but it will be worth it.

I wish I could be more sympathetic to the situation, but a lot of these companies knew what was happening and decided to bury their heads in the sand. The same can be applied to brexit as well. All companies were warned the UK would either strike a very basic free trade agreeement or no-deal. So at the very least, many companies over the past 5 years will have known there was a strong possibility of there being no-deal,and should have prepared for that outcome. Instead, many of them prepared a little and then assumed naively that it will sort itself out once we get a FTA and that all the red tape and paperwork would all work out smoothly. So as much as I like to blame everything on Brexit in this country for a lot of the stock shortages we are seeing across the board on top of a pandemic, many of these companies have themselves to blame - and I say this as someone who did not vote for Brexit and as someone who is not a Tory voting sheep.

Sorry to derail the thread a little bit with politics, but the blame game really doesn't just isolate itself to one or two things - it goes right across the board with complacency and a lack of foresight.
 
Associate
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Sorry to derail the thread a little bit with politics, but the blame game really doesn't just isolate itself to one or two things - it goes right across the board with complacency and a lack of foresight.
Business - especially western or Anglo - tends to be very short sighted.

Which is the whole thing about climate change and resource depletion: most sane people see it coming but nobody wants to take any action.

Homo Sapian?
More like Homo Rāna (as in a frog supposedly sitting in water as it heats to boiling point).
 
Soldato
Joined
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Posts
5,207
Business - especially western or Anglo - tends to be very short sighted.

Which is the whole thing about climate change and resource depletion: most sane people see it coming but nobody wants to take any action.

Homo Sapian?
More like Homo Rāna (as in a frog supposedly sitting in water as it heats to boiling point).

It's very concerning that we allow it to continue for so long... As I said, Apple and Intel have the right idea. The West needs to be way more competitive again, and I'm not usually anti China, but we in the West have been stupid to off-load our manufacturing to China for so long without any given thought to the idea that China may return to its old ways... China has benefited greatly, because we have handed it to them on a plate, and who wouldn't want to take advantage of that? So in that sense, I don't blame them for doing it, but I do blame ourselves for being naive and utterly incompetent enough to do it without any foresight.

If I were the UK government, I would seriously be chasing up a free trade agreement with the USA right now, especially to get some of that manufacturing investment in the UK and reduction of tariffs for various materials and goods that we are now struggling to get from the EU... Whether that can be negotiated competently though is another thing...
 
Associate
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Leeds
What is the point of free trade with USA? The cost of shipping negates any reduction in tax benefit.

In addition to which we have very little to sell to USA as our manufacturing industry has been decimated. For a free trade agreement the Americans would want access to our NHS and also supply of hormone injected beef and chlorinated chicken.

As an aside the Chinese earn on average $400 per month - thats why Apple and Intel etc have all their chips made there. Western wages are too high to be competitve
 
Associate
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Leeds
Well we have a free trade agreement with Europe now, but we have left the customs union which has really screwed things up as it has lead to substantially more paperwork at the border and delay in transportation as every item has to be checked. This is why AMD (amongst other companies) is not selling direct to the UK, and probably why OCUK is not selling to Europe. Matters will get substantially worse after 1st October when the full custom rules come into effect
 
Soldato
Joined
30 Aug 2014
Posts
5,961
Well we have a free trade agreement with Europe now, but we have left the customs union which has really screwed things up as it has lead to substantially more paperwork at the border and delay in transportation as every item has to be checked. This is why AMD (amongst other companies) is not selling direct to the UK, and probably why OCUK is not selling to Europe. Matters will get substantially worse after 1st October when the full custom rules come into effect
The grace periods have been indefinitely extended by the UK and the EU isn't pressing the issue yet, I think this means the full rules won't come into effect on the 1st of October (the can is being kicked down the road).
 
Last edited:
Soldato
Joined
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5,961
The grace period was extended from 1st April to 1st October, not indefinitely. https://news.sky.com/story/m-s-warn...fter-brexit-import-rules-take-effect-12400723
Originally, yes. However, the UK have now extended them indefinitely. The EU could sue them for breaching the protocol by extending unilaterally, but it seems they prefer to negotiate instead as they haven't initiated further legal action: https://www.theguardian.com/politic...t-grace-period-over-northern-ireland-protocol
 
Caporegime
Joined
21 Jun 2006
Posts
38,372
What is the point of free trade with USA? The cost of shipping negates any reduction in tax benefit.

In addition to which we have very little to sell to USA as our manufacturing industry has been decimated. For a free trade agreement the Americans would want access to our NHS and also supply of hormone injected beef and chlorinated chicken.

As an aside the Chinese earn on average $400 per month - thats why Apple and Intel etc have all their chips made there. Western wages are too high to be competitve

Swings and roundabouts. Every empire has its day.

What is the alternative? Communism? Banning free trade with countries you deem a threat to your economy?

That would be declaring war on China. People want everything handed to them on a plate at the cheapest price possible but they also want to be told what to buy by marketing and PR.

At the end of the day who cares. Look out for number one. That's the only way to survive. It's what all the winners are doing.

Do we really need Branson selling tickets on a 10 second space journey for £350k? All those resources and the environmental impact so some rich person can take a selfie in space. People need to wake up and smell the coffee, nobody cares. The media just promote whatever they like and then jump on bandwagons they think will help them make more money.
 
Soldato
Joined
6 Feb 2019
Posts
17,565
Swings and roundabouts. Every empire has its day.

What is the alternative? Communism? Banning free trade with countries you deem a threat to your economy?

That would be declaring war on China. People want everything handed to them on a plate at the cheapest price possible but they also want to be told what to buy by marketing and PR.

At the end of the day who cares. Look out for number one. That's the only way to survive. It's what all the winners are doing.

Do we really need Branson selling tickets on a 10 second space journey for £350k? All those resources and the environmental impact so some rich person can take a selfie in space. People need to wake up and smell the coffee, nobody cares. The media just promote whatever they like and then jump on bandwagons they think will help them make more money.

branson is a fad, musk and space x are revolutionaries improving life for man
 
Associate
Joined
30 Nov 2020
Posts
30
It makes me laugh actually that the Tories (especially Mrs Thatcher who practically invented the single market) who for so long wanted access to an almost unlimited supply of cheap labour from Eastern Europe in order to hold down the wages of average UK working people have actually handed the working class the opportunity for a huge rise in wages with Brexit. One only has to see how this has driven up the wages of truck drivers sharply and you can bet that the same will be happening in other jobs where there is a growing shortage of workers - nurses, fruit pickers, care workers, tradesmen, motor engineers etc. Restrict the supply of people and economics shows us that the price for their labour will go up!

Unfortunately this will also increase business costs and drive inflation. I was always strongly opposed to Brexit because although I could see the appeal of some of the slogans, I shared grave concerns with 95% of economists worldwide about the impact it would have on business efficiency and as a result I thought it posed a threat to unemployment. In fact the reverse may be true and it's having the unintended consequence of reducing unemployment and driving up the wages of ordinary workers. I don't think it's going to do much for white collar workers - we've no shortage of accountants, middle managers, bankers, estate agents and IT professionals but Brexit plus Covid is really exposing how undervalued the vital people who care for our elderly, drive our lorries and pick our crops have become.

I also think that we are witnessing an entirely new business revolution thanks to Covid and climate change. It's becoming readily apparent that people mostly love working from home/hybrid working and the notion that 9 million people needed to make their way on overcrowded roads and public transport into London everyday further polluting the planet is a nonsense. The business driver for it is that companies are realising that they don't need to pay for huge office buildings in city centre locations stuffed with battery hens and the savings on premises costs are gigantic. They also don't need to pay for their workers to get on planes to fly to Brussels, Tokyo or New York for business meetings every day of the week. Consumers are realising that they didn't really enjoy the high street shopping experience either and are embracing online shopping and also the joy of holidaying at home rather than jumping on a plane to go to Prague to get ****** at the weekend. Seismic shifts in human behaviour are happening and much of it will benefit the planet and its ecosystem. The Government's desire to get people back into city centres is old world thinking in the face of a new world order. Companies like Overclockers and Amazon will benefit greatly, companies like high street computer shops will suffer. Why do we buy so much on Amazon nowadays? Because we're fed up of the limited choice available on the high street, fed up with the hassle of losing a paper receipt and trying to get a refund, fed up of PC World putting every USB cable in packaging that makes returning an item almost impossible, fed up of paying the inflated prices on the high street, fed up (and with covid fearful) of struggling with traffic and parking and crowds, fed up of dealing with shop assistants who simply know nothing about what they are selling due to inadequate staff training. Yesterday I ordered a Thrustmaster Airbus throttle quadrant for my simulator with the click of the mouse and it will be here in under 24 hours on my doorstep. I bet that item would be impossible to find on any high street.

The Governments of the world have known lots about climate change for decades, they knew that a pandemic was coming but they have done little to prepare for either. Human behaviour is changing much faster than governments are reacting, the only issue is it's probably still too little too late. Business and government will only start to react to the climate emergency when the short term cost of not doing so becomes higher than the short term costs of doing so (sadly).

Birdseed007
 
Soldato
Joined
16 Jun 2004
Posts
3,215
It makes me laugh actually that the Tories (especially Mrs Thatcher who practically invented the single market) who for so long wanted access to an almost unlimited supply of cheap labour from Eastern Europe in order to hold down the wages of average UK working people have actually handed the working class the opportunity for a huge rise in wages with Brexit. One only has to see how this has driven up the wages of truck drivers sharply and you can bet that the same will be happening in other jobs where there is a growing shortage of workers - nurses, fruit pickers, care workers, tradesmen, motor engineers etc. Restrict the supply of people and economics shows us that the price for their labour will go up!

Unfortunately this will also increase business costs and drive inflation. I was always strongly opposed to Brexit because although I could see the appeal of some of the slogans, I shared grave concerns with 95% of economists worldwide about the impact it would have on business efficiency and as a result I thought it posed a threat to unemployment. In fact the reverse may be true and it's having the unintended consequence of reducing unemployment and driving up the wages of ordinary workers. I don't think it's going to do much for white collar workers - we've no shortage of accountants, middle managers, bankers, estate agents and IT professionals but Brexit plus Covid is really exposing how undervalued the vital people who care for our elderly, drive our lorries and pick our crops have become.

I also think that we are witnessing an entirely new business revolution thanks to Covid and climate change. It's becoming readily apparent that people mostly love working from home/hybrid working and the notion that 9 million people needed to make their way on overcrowded roads and public transport into London everyday further polluting the planet is a nonsense. The business driver for it is that companies are realising that they don't need to pay for huge office buildings in city centre locations stuffed with battery hens and the savings on premises costs are gigantic. They also don't need to pay for their workers to get on planes to fly to Brussels, Tokyo or New York for business meetings every day of the week. Consumers are realising that they didn't really enjoy the high street shopping experience either and are embracing online shopping and also the joy of holidaying at home rather than jumping on a plane to go to Prague to get ****** at the weekend. Seismic shifts in human behaviour are happening and much of it will benefit the planet and its ecosystem. The Government's desire to get people back into city centres is old world thinking in the face of a new world order. Companies like Overclockers and Amazon will benefit greatly, companies like high street computer shops will suffer. Why do we buy so much on Amazon nowadays? Because we're fed up of the limited choice available on the high street, fed up with the hassle of losing a paper receipt and trying to get a refund, fed up of PC World putting every USB cable in packaging that makes returning an item almost impossible, fed up of paying the inflated prices on the high street, fed up (and with covid fearful) of struggling with traffic and parking and crowds, fed up of dealing with shop assistants who simply know nothing about what they are selling due to inadequate staff training. Yesterday I ordered a Thrustmaster Airbus throttle quadrant for my simulator with the click of the mouse and it will be here in under 24 hours on my doorstep. I bet that item would be impossible to find on any high street.

The Governments of the world have known lots about climate change for decades, they knew that a pandemic was coming but they have done little to prepare for either. Human behaviour is changing much faster than governments are reacting, the only issue is it's probably still too little too late. Business and government will only start to react to the climate emergency when the short term cost of not doing so becomes higher than the short term costs of doing so (sadly).

Birdseed007

Cool story, Bro.

The Forum Speakers Corner is that'a'way >>>>>
 
Associate
Joined
30 Nov 2020
Posts
30
Haha Cooper- yeah sorry, point taken - more than a little thread creep in that post!! Think I had a little too much red wine last night!!

Anyway I'm off the soap box now and the fact that many are pointing to diminished graphics card supply is indeed worrying. I actually wonder if the situation will resolve at all until the new fabrication plants come on stream and that won't be for another 18 months or so.

The reality is that mining is still sucking up ever increasing numbers of GPU's, manufacturing capacity is inadequate, demand is still sky high. The situation could very well get worse before it gets better especially as we're entering prime gaming period (Winter) in the Northern hemisphere.

Birdseed007
 
Associate
Joined
30 Aug 2021
Posts
304
Location
coventry
Haha Cooper- yeah sorry, point taken - more than a little thread creep in that post!! Think I had a little too much red wine last night!!

Anyway I'm off the soap box now and the fact that many are pointing to diminished graphics card supply is indeed worrying. I actually wonder if the situation will resolve at all until the new fabrication plants come on stream and that won't be for another 18 months or so.

The reality is that mining is still sucking up ever increasing numbers of GPU's, manufacturing capacity is inadequate, demand is still sky high. The situation could very well get worse before it gets better especially as we're entering prime gaming period (Winter) in the Northern hemisphere.

Birdseed007
It could get worse but i think it will sort its self out by the end of October
 
Soldato
Joined
15 Oct 2019
Posts
11,687
Location
Uk
It could get worse but i think it will sort its self out by the end of October
October is a bit optimistic, I think we'll see a return to normality early next year once ethereum mining starts to phase out as there will be a huge decrease in demand and increase in supply's due to miners cashing out of their hardware.
 
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