Intel Arc series unveiled with the Alchemist dGPU to arrive in Q1 2022

[CAT-THE-FIFTH]

Its very challenging to find a proper break down on products , but AMD margins are coming from server cpu`s (thats from either TTP or GN, cant remember). Intels margins are on teh up, they were at 45% just 2 years ago. 14nm has really hurt them, but they have supply which AMD (at TSMC) doesnt have. The enws though is that Intel wont be buying up GloFo and rumour is they are heading to Samsungs 8nm process licenced.

I would imagine that 7NM is in a much better shape in terms of yields and pricing than it was 2 years ago when Navi10 and Zen2 were launched. But the thing is that Nvidia still makes over 60% of its revenues from gaming GPUs. Its why people shouldn't be paying significantly over RRP for Nvidia GPUs,as even at RRP they are making more than enough money IMHO! All the AIB partners complaining life is hard,are having decent years too.

The only gamers not being ripped off,are console gamers IMHO. Even the scalped consoles go less than for scalped slower/similar speed dGPUs. Plus a system like the XBox Series S,has an RX580 level GPU and a Ryzen 7 4800H level CPU,but goes for well under £300.

 

[Harlequin]

GF being sold to Intel : GlobalFoundries CEO Dismisses Intel Buyout Rumors, IPO Moves Ahead - ExtremeTech

Was just a rumour (i asked Ian Cutress and he said similar - the industry has known about the IPO for quite a while)

AMD Reports First Quarter 2021 Financial Results :: Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD)

The press release doesnt breakdown into each division (and im sure the actual information is behind a paywall somewhere) revenue is up, gross margin has remained the same year on year. Not so sure the consoles are such a `low` margin as is perceived.

As for IBM

IBM Creates First 2nm Chip (anandtech.com)

They are at 2nm

 

[Harlequin]

I would imagine that 7NM is in a much better shape in terms of yields and pricing than it was 2 years ago when Navi10 and Zen2 were launched. But the thing is that Nvidia still makes over 60% of its revenues from gaming GPUs. Its why people shouldn't be paying significantly over RRP for Nvidia GPUs,as even at RRP they are making more than enough money IMHO! All the AIB partners complaining life is hard,are having decent years too.

The only gamers not being ripped off,are console gamers IMHO. Even the scalped consoles go less than for scalped slower/similar speed dGPUs. Plus a system like the XBox Series S,has an RX580 level GPU and a Ryzen 7 4800H level CPU,but goes for well under £300.

Its why AMD will stick to N6 for its next production run (cpu), let Apple pay for risk on N5 then jump in in 2022. Intel are going straight to N6 for its ARC/ I do wonder if N6 will also be the test run for navi + zen2 in the apu.

 

[CAT-THE-FIFTH]

Its why AMD will stick to N6 for its next production run (cpu), let Apple pay for risk on N5 then jump in in 2022. Intel are going straight to N6 for its ARC/ I do wonder if N6 will also be the test run for navi + zen2 in the apu.

What I am hoping it means 7NM production capacity is freed up for CPUs/GPUs. I think that Zen4 is going to quite expensive with its use of DDR5,so I can see AM4 still being around for a while. The same goes with mainstream dGPUs,if 7NM supply gets better,perhaps a rejigged Navi 22/Navi 23 with RDNA3 features,but made on 7NM would probably make more sense. I can seen N6 being reserved for the higher end dGPUs at the start.

 

[Harlequin]

What I am hoping it means 7NM production capacity is freed up for CPUs/GPUs. I think that Zen4 is going to quite expensive with its use of DDR5,so I can see AM4 still being around for a while. The same goes with mainstream dGPUs,if 7NM supply gets better,perhaps a rejigged Navi 22/Navi 23 with RDNA3 features,but made on 7NM would probably make more sense. I can seen N6 being reserved for the higher end dGPUs at the start.

Thats the consensus - 6600xt > 6700XT (and maybe 6800) being on N7 (+ or P) sliding down the stack with the high end on N6. What is interesting is AMD Van Gogh - it looks like it`ll be an RX 6500 with Zen2 ondie as the first of the `new` igpu core models along with lpddr5; it does follow the pattern of slowly maturing new technologies

 

[KompuKare]

What I am hoping it means 7NM production capacity is freed up for CPUs/GPUs. I think that Zen4 is going to quite expensive with its use of DDR5,so I can see AM4 still being around for a while. The same goes with mainstream dGPUs,if 7NM supply gets better,perhaps a rejigged Navi 22/Navi 23 with RDNA3 features,but made on 7NM would probably make more sense. I can seen N6 being reserved for the higher end dGPUs at the start.

But what if TSMC is really keen* to get customers to move to 6nm?

Although rumours are transistor per dollar hasn't moved for 6nm vs 7nm but throughput has (maybe the EUV steps take less time all the previous DUV ones)?

So if TSMC is keen to move their clients to 6nm to get better throughput they might have to offer some incentives.

The other part, is that while TSMC are not Intel and tend to keep some older nodes, the key word might be some. They may want to re-tool some 7nm lines for 6nm if it increases their total wafers per month output.

* Maybe with rebates or offers, but the Taiwan press is reporting wafer prices are going up on just about all nodes:
https://www.computerbase.de/2021-08/tsmc-umc-smic-preissteigerungen-bei-foundrys-fuer-mehr-gewinn/
(https://translate.google.com/transl...oundrys-fuer-mehr-gewinn/&prev=search&pto=aue)

EDIT:
Seems Hexus has picked that story up too:
https://hexus.net/business/news/com...say-tsmc-decided-raise-prices-10-20-per-cent/

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1430344846640762885

 

[CAT-THE-FIFTH]

Thats the consensus - 6600xt > 6700XT (and maybe 6800) being on N7 (+ or P) sliding down the stack with the high end on N6. What is interesting is AMD Van Gogh - it looks like it`ll be an RX 6500 with Zen2 ondie as the first of the `new` igpu core models along with lpddr5; it does follow the pattern of slowly maturing new technologies

I think it makes sense - RDNA2 is quiet energy efficient on 7NM,so with some tweaks the maintream on a lagging node makes some sense.

If it means more supply,I am all for it!!

But what if TSMC is really keen* to get customers to move to 6nm?

Although rumours are transistor per dollar hasn't moved for 6nm vs 7nm but throughput has (maybe the EUV steps take less time all the previous DUV ones)?

So if TSMC is keen to move their clients to 6nm to get better throughput they might have to offer some incentives.

The other part, is that while TSMC are not Intel and tend to keep some older nodes, the key word might be some. They may want to re-tool some 7nm lines for 6nm if it increases their total wafers per month output.

* Maybe with rebates or offers, but the Taiwan press is reporting wafer prices are going up on just about all nodes:
https://www.computerbase.de/2021-08/tsmc-umc-smic-preissteigerungen-bei-foundrys-fuer-mehr-gewinn/
(https://translate.google.com/transl...oundrys-fuer-mehr-gewinn/&prev=search&pto=aue)

EDIT:
Seems Hexus has picked that story up too:
https://hexus.net/business/news/com...say-tsmc-decided-raise-prices-10-20-per-cent/

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1430344846640762885

I will just repeat what I said about this on Hexus.

At this point after seeing Nvidia making massive amounts of dosh - it makes me wonder whether many of these "leaked" reports are actually real,especially in light of the fact many larger customers of TSMC would have signed longterm contracts. It seems mighty convenient once all these reports come out(mostly not officially confirmed),that companies can make an excuse to massively increase prices way past any actual price increase. Then lo and behold these companies have made record net and gross margins. It almost sounds like some form of market manipulation.

An example was what happened to hard drive prices,after those floods many years ago. Companies "were forced" to jack up prices due to the problems,but then for years after that prices remained high per TB,and they did well out of it. Its also like when NAND becomes too cheap,all of a sudden some "disaster" like a slightly inebriated Pelican flying into the factory for 30 seconds,and causing 6 months of supply to suddenly sublimate into thin air. Even Gamersnexus in their 6600XT review pointed this to out some degree,ie,just because the price of copper goes up by 2X,it might not mean much if the device uses $2 worth of copper.

 

[KompuKare]

Market manipulation is always possible.

Fabs are so expensive banking, stock market and stuff like that very intrinsic with government support in bad time (Korean crisis, etc.). Obviously if the fabs can pay back their loans in 5 years instead of 7, or 10 or whatever, they will.

But it looks like even the small players like UMC and SMIC are raising prices.

Part of the reason is that with all players fully booked up for months and years in advance, and with all their customer making record profits they are signalling that the fabs want some of the extra money too.

Logic fabs used to always look down on the memory ones but since there are now only three/four memory manufacturers left, they don't even have to conspire to raise prices. And the barrier to entry are huge.

Samsung - Hynix - Micron must each know very well what they other has, what their costs are and how they would response to price drops and rises. Micron's cost is meant to be by far the highest but they can rely or give the impression of being able to American protectionism.

 

[CAT-THE-FIFTH]

The issue I have is that Nvidia,etc are making massive margins,despite "massive cost increases". It reminded of what happened before the first Geforce Titan came out at nearly £1000,in an era of flagship GPUs costing closer to half that. All of a sudden you had techsites post a "leaked Nvidia document" detailing "how expensive" TSMC 28NM was,and you had people trying to justify the cost increases due to "increased" costs. Yet this was the starting point of Nvidia rising to the money making machine it is today.

Remember,a while back it was all about substrates,GDDR6 costs,etc. Yet Sony can make the PS5 with a 300+ MM2 7NM SOC,16GB of GDDR6,a PCI-E 4.0 SSD,Blu-Ray optical drive with retailer margins,for £450 and not make a loss. AMD then released that weird 8C motherboard with no IGP,and 16GB of GDDR6 and I doubt that will cost more than Ryzen 7 5700G,with DDR4. I doubt OEMs are paying megabucks for that either. Then you go and look on HUKD,plenty of laptops with an RTX3060 or RTX3060 and a half decent 6C CPU,going for well under £1000. The laptop RTX3060 is a full GA106 GPU,unliked the salvaged part used in the RTX3060 desktop dGPU. I doubt the large system integrators like Dell and Lenovo,will be paying anything more than the minimum they can get away with either.

The leaking of all this news seems very good news for Nvidia,AMD,Intel,AIB partners,etc who can nicely justify jacking up their prices. Yet,lots of other computer parts seem to be relatively easy to get at RRP or below RRP,despite being affected by the same factors.

It distinctly reminds me of the times when RAM went up to silly prices a few times,and we found years later the companies had been having a Gentlemen's Agreement to not bother competing with each other.

 

[Grim5]

Intel has stolen another lead gpu architect from AMD


https://www.crn.com/news/components...s-top-amd-gpu-architect-to-lead-xe-ip-roadmap

 

[Harlequin]

Can see a wall of legalese coming Intels way - usually top execs have gardening clauses in regards to competition = Vineet Goel literally walked from AMD to Intel.

 

[RavenXXX2]

Intel confirms Arc graphics cards won’t ship with cryptocurrency mining lock

https://videocardz.com/newz/intel-c...rds-wont-ship-with-cryptocurrency-mining-lock

Bet they rock at mining.

 

[Dicehunter]

Intel confirms Arc graphics cards won’t ship with cryptocurrency mining lock

https://videocardz.com/newz/intel-c...rds-wont-ship-with-cryptocurrency-mining-lock

Bet they rock at mining.

If the ethereum nerf doesn't come in by then I can see that launch getting ugly.

 

[Doogles]

If the ethereum nerf doesn't come in by then I can see that launch getting ugly.

If Intel sucks for gaming but amazing at mining hopefully nVidia/AMD cards will be easier to get our hands on.

 

[Harlequin]

If Intel sucks for gaming but amazing at mining hopefully nVidia/AMD cards will be easier to get our hands on.

I like how you think thats how capitalism works

 

[KompuKare]

If Intel sucks for gaming but amazing at mining hopefully nVidia/AMD cards will be easier to get our hands on.

So that would be an update on AMD's problem:

I wish AMD to competed at high-end GPU market, so I can buy Nvidia cheaper

Updated to:

I wish Intel could compete at the mining GPU market, so I can buy Nvidia or AMD

In both cases it is saying

I wish X would compete so I can others cheaper

 

[Angilion]

If the ethereum nerf doesn't come in by then I can see that launch getting ugly.

Intel have already said they don't have enough supply. My guess is that Intel will just slip into the market alongside AMD and nvidia, just more of the same with Intel being small fry just like the main two but much smaller (in the dGPU market). But it would be nice if I'm guessing wrong and Intel enter the market with an adequate supply of product at a semi-reasonable price. A decent budget gaming card that's genuinely available and sells for £400 would be enough to completely change the market now, despite £400 still being a very high price for a budget card.

 

[Dicehunter]

Intel have already said they don't have enough supply. My guess is that Intel will just slip into the market alongside AMD and nvidia, just more of the same with Intel being small fry just like the main two but much smaller (in the dGPU market). But it would be nice if I'm guessing wrong and Intel enter the market with an adequate supply of product at a semi-reasonable price. A decent budget gaming card that's genuinely available and sells for £400 would be enough to completely change the market now, despite £400 still being a very high price for a budget card.

If they can get their 3070 competitor out the door and keep it at £400 that will sell like hotcakes, Only problem then becomes retailers making up excuses as to why they are charging hundreds more and the inevitable scalpers.

 

[Harlequin]

T

If they can get their 3070 competitor out the door and keep it at £400 that will sell like hotcakes, Only problem then becomes retailers making up excuses as to why they are charging hundreds more and the inevitable scalpers.

hey wont, it`ll come in at the `market` price no the fictional FE msrp. Its been 18 days since the last `drop`.

 

[CAT-THE-FIFTH]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=POA0Yke7Vl4