A Question of (expected) Supply and Demand

[LWH]

Afternoon all,

As most of us in here have been, I've been thinking about the GPU supply issues and how to deal with the issue of supply being purchased instantly and resold with an extra zero added.

Hypothetical idea: If a consumer facing storefront (like OC) were to hold on to a significant number of cards (100+) and then release them all at the same time, with all their usual anti-bot, single item purchase rules in place, would that enable a greater number of people to get hold of one?

My thinking is that everyone has taken up the first pressure on the trigger and is ready to fire on a single card here or there, but if there were so many available in a single drop people would not be prepared with mechanisms to bypass the purchasing rules meaning the stock would go out to a greater variety of people.

Definitely not a solution or even a suggestion, and I invite you all to debate(read debunk) the idea.

 

[BlueInf]

I think releasing many cards at once is good for the buyer but less good for the seller

 

[LWH]

I think releasing many cards at once is good for the buyer but less good for the seller

I'm sure man hours would be up, but they could be sold for the prevailing price I'd have thought.

 

[djxput]

a little off topic - but the problem with supply and demand and have a limited # of people needing (gamers) graphics cards. The Biggest factor in this mix is mining. As long as this exists (as long as you can make more money then what you expend) - demand will always be high.
I just read this today https://www.independent.co.uk/clima...mining-china-environment-carbon-b1827396.html
The all mighty 'dollar', Pound, Yuan is more important then anything else.
Do you know the best way to have reasonably priced GPUs? Bitcoin being 2000 again or less.
sorry this is off topic - but to the OP not sure if you heard about the 3 recent drops by ockers for gamers (or tried to be).

 

[Game]

they also need to retain a certain amount for prebuilt systems

 

[LWH]

a little off topic - but the problem with supply and demand and have a limited # of people needing (gamers) graphics cards. The Biggest factor in this mix is mining. As long as this exists (as long as you can make more money then what you expend) - demand will always be high.
I just read this today https://www.independent.co.uk/clima...mining-china-environment-carbon-b1827396.html
The all mighty 'dollar', Pound, Yuan is more important then anything else.
Do you know the best way to have reasonably priced GPUs? Bitcoin being 2000 again or less.
sorry this is off topic - but to the OP not sure if you heard about the 3 recent drops by ockers for gamers (or tried to be).

I had heard that Bitcoin wasn't the issue this time around and that Etherium had become the reckoning force. Rumours around them making mining irrelevant are floating around at the moment and I think the shift is happening this year although not sure when. Maybe this might bring some supply to the secondhand market...

And yes, I had seen the drops on these forums. It's a good idea but will only work on a small scale. (Not that I won't jump in if I see the card I want!)

they also need to retain a certain amount for prebuilt systems

I believe these are in a different stock list and don't directly impact the individual items on sale.

 

[Cooler running]

I don't think your idea would work on the E-commerce level. This would put huge stresses on the distribution, it might also encourage multiple purchasing behaviours.

Holding back stock might work if Nvidia held back and then flooded all supply avenues with GPU's for about 2 months straight. That way those trying to scalp would be priced out of the market, as they usually can't hold much high value stock without turnover.
Good luck persuading Jensen to do anything about it though.

 

[ScottiB]

Won't work. Bots are faster than gamers, simple as that. We released 200 6700XTs via a voucher code published on this forum. All cards snapped up within 40 minutes. Mostly new customers with no order history and the number that ended up being scalped was ridiculous.

There's a trend here to blame miners, and maybe the miners are feeding the scalpers, but there's also a much bigger demand from gamers than most people believe. However, the core problem is scalper groups using bots and their patsy's who they pay to allow them to use their name & address details. We can't filter out duplicate orders if every order comes from a different "person".

Commercial bot protections don't really work, that was painfully apparent when a bug on the website allowed hundreds of bots to order in a matter of minutes a couple of weeks ago. Bots are now clever enough to bypass the common protections.

 

[DD_Crash]

Thanks for keeping us updated.

 

[Game]

Won't work. Bots are faster than gamers, simple as that. We released 200 6700XTs via a voucher code published on this forum. All cards snapped up within 40 minutes. Mostly new customers with no order history and the number that ended up being scalped was ridiculous.

There's a trend here to blame miners, and maybe the miners are feeding the scalpers, but there's also a much bigger demand from gamers than most people believe. However, the core problem is scalper groups using bots and their patsy's who they pay to allow them to use their name & address details. We can't filter out duplicate orders if every order comes from a different "person".

Commercial bot protections don't really work, that was painfully apparent when a bug on the website allowed hundreds of bots to order in a matter of minutes a couple of weeks ago. Bots are now clever enough to bypass the common protections.

I have seen them on ebay some in the same cardboard box and packing you sent mine in

 

[DazQ87]

Won't work. Bots are faster than gamers, simple as that. We released 200 6700XTs via a voucher code published on this forum. All cards snapped up within 40 minutes. Mostly new customers with no order history and the number that ended up being scalped was ridiculous.

There's a trend here to blame miners, and maybe the miners are feeding the scalpers, but there's also a much bigger demand from gamers than most people believe. However, the core problem is scalper groups using bots and their patsy's who they pay to allow them to use their name & address details. We can't filter out duplicate orders if every order comes from a different "person".

Commercial bot protections don't really work, that was painfully apparent when a bug on the website allowed hundreds of bots to order in a matter of minutes a couple of weeks ago. Bots are now clever enough to bypass the common protections.

Regarding your point about stopping scalping, would it not be possible to block the voucher codes if the account buying the graphics card isn't linked to an OCUK forum account?

 

[MCFC_ANDY]

Regarding your point about stopping scalping, would it not be possible to block the voucher codes if the account buying the graphics card isn't linked to an OCUK forum account?

for how long?, takes minutes to register a forum account, and im betting quite a few have been registered already incase

 

[dunno]

for how long?, takes minutes to register a forum account, and im betting quite a few have been registered already incase

a lot of them asking for help with their new hardware - some of it seems suss

 

[Benass]

Remember Bot Do not Add to cart.
They can bypass entire website Interface. They comunicate directly to a server using programing comands and stuff. Bot can make an order in fraction of a second. YES fraction of a second.

Human cant compete with a bot whos scaning the webpages sending requests every minute 24/7

 

[megatron]

Won't work. Bots are faster than gamers, simple as that. We released 200 6700XTs via a voucher code published on this forum. All cards snapped up within 40 minutes. Mostly new customers with no order history and the number that ended up being scalped was ridiculous.

There's a trend here to blame miners, and maybe the miners are feeding the scalpers, but there's also a much bigger demand from gamers than most people believe. However, the core problem is scalper groups using bots and their patsy's who they pay to allow them to use their name & address details. We can't filter out duplicate orders if every order comes from a different "person".

Commercial bot protections don't really work, that was painfully apparent when a bug on the website allowed hundreds of bots to order in a matter of minutes a couple of weeks ago. Bots are now clever enough to bypass the common protections.

Since my vega 56 was stolen I'm fresh out of GPUs (and a 280x, in fact thousands in PC gear some not even fitted like 3 ek rads), I really need a new GPU. I've got a 5900x and a PSU coming aswell as the Substantial OcUK order. Also need a security camera as a deterent. (all my gear was uninsured).

Can you supe up your website to only allow repeat customers / MM forumers?

 

[CuriousTomCat]

There must be a huge demand for gamers and minors to buy these overpriced scalped cards. They are encouraging the scalpers and cursing them at the same time probably.

I`ve literally given up until the market is flooded with stock and online stores have to offer promotions to get rid of them.

 

[KompuKare]

There's a trend here to blame miners, and maybe the miners are feeding the scalpers, but there's also a much bigger demand from gamers than most people believe.

You would think after the Steam survey March 2021 thread:
https://www.overclockers.co.uk/foru...-2021-hardware-survey.18925118/#post-34689341
Where it was estimated 3.4 million Nvidia 3000 series cards were in the hands of gamers (since full-time miners would never install Steam), that people would long have realised that the demand is crazy and miners cannot be solely blamed for it.
Plus the AMD shortage (and remember this gen RDNA2 mines worse than Ampere) might have something to do with 70% to 80% of AMD's TSMC wafers going to consoles.
So it looks like there are at least 3 factors in the shortage:

1. PC gamers snapping up anything which can game.
2. Miners snapping up anything which can mine.
3. Console gamers snapping up any new gen console they can get.

For 1 and 3, people mostly have to be patient. For 2, stop being so greedy but regardlessly all previous bubbles have ended about now with profitability collapsing due to too many miners.

 

[Steviepunk]

for how long?, takes minutes to register a forum account, and im betting quite a few have been registered already incase

Doesn't the store already have a mechanism to determine if you have enough posts to qualify for free delivery (I think that is 100 posts) - would have thought that same check could be used for a voucher code?

Edit: in relation to the OT - aside from other the other issues discussed, if OC were to try this approach, it would mean they would have to sit on a lot of stock for a while until they had enough to make this approach worthwhile. To be fair to OC, no business would want to sit on high value stock when they could be selling it.

 

[thenewoc]

The new website will hopefully solve the issue with account specific voucher codes. But then I guess you'll get lots of new accounts generated unless you separately validate each sale against a limit per address.

 

[LWH]

Won't work. Bots are faster than gamers, simple as that. We released 200 6700XTs via a voucher code published on this forum. All cards snapped up within 40 minutes. Mostly new customers with no order history and the number that ended up being scalped was ridiculous.

There's a trend here to blame miners, and maybe the miners are feeding the scalpers, but there's also a much bigger demand from gamers than most people believe. However, the core problem is scalper groups using bots and their patsy's who they pay to allow them to use their name & address details. We can't filter out duplicate orders if every order comes from a different "person".

Commercial bot protections don't really work, that was painfully apparent when a bug on the website allowed hundreds of bots to order in a matter of minutes a couple of weeks ago. Bots are now clever enough to bypass the common protections.

Interesting insight, thanks Scotti. Real shame. Out of interest do you guys have any figures comparing the demand you've seen on the 30XX launch compared to say 20XX? Obviously understand that these might be a bit too material for public forums would however be nice to quantify what the demand looks like comparatively.

Remember Bot Do not Add to cart.
They can bypass entire website Interface. They comunicate directly to a server using programing comands and stuff. Bot can make an order in fraction of a second. YES fraction of a second.

Human cant compete with a bot whos scaning the webpages sending requests every minute 24/7

Ignoring ethical or legal issue for the moment, do you think it would be possible to overwhelm those using these access points with empty requests?

Does reCAPTCHA actually work?

EDIT: That steam hardware thread is very interesting and answers the question of 20XX vs 30XX in terms of demand. I'm sure one could correlate the demand for this generation of GPUs with the growth in membership of a certain well-known internet sub forum