AMD on the road to recovery.

[humbug]

1) Cause I'm in Europe and I'm looking at a webpage that tracks prices across the EU

2) Sure

3) I don't know what kind of question is that. All I'm saying is, with the XTX being 1199, the 4080 can't be below 1299.

4) No, cause if the 4080 was actually at 699 the 7900XT would be around 400 to 500€ tops. Currently the cheapest I can find is at least double that

Then given you agree the 7900XT is not as severely over priced as the 4080 you can't also claim the 4080 is not the worst in that sense.

I don't know what kind of question is that. All I'm saying is, with the XTX being 1199, the 4080 can't be below 1299.

Its quite simple, AMD have little effect if any on Nvidia's pricing structure, one of the many problems of your competitor having 90% market share, there isn't much you can do to influence them, many of AMD's RDNA2 cards are better value than Nvidia's Ampere, some of them very much so, Nvidia don't even notice it, so far as they are concerned AMD do not even exist and sales would confirm that, Nvidia are vastly outselling AMD with cards that are both slower and more expensive.
Putting the blame on AMD for this situation just plays right in to Nvidia's hands, they can continue with impunity because they can do no wrong, if everything they do is AMD's fault. THAT is how we have gotten to where we are now.

 

[humbug]

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again expecting a different outcome.

 

[humbug]

But it is, you were using percentages for the 4080 and now you stopped. I mean come on, the bias is so obvious.....the 4080 is 62% overpriced, the 7900xt is more than 100%.


So you are saying Nvidia forced AMD to overprice their cards? I mean come on now....

I don't ever remember amd having better valued cards against nvidia the last like, 5+ years. From polaris, to vega (LOL), to rdna2, their cards had usually worse value at launch.

I said the 4080 is 72% more expensive than the 3080, it is... don't twist what i said.

the 7900xt is more than 100%.

Half of $900 is $450. To get to 100% overpriced you would double what you think the cost should be, you think it should be $450.

So you are saying Nvidia forced AMD to overprice their cards? I mean come on now....

AMD slot their cards in somewhere behind Nvidia, as much as they think they can get away with, but always behind Nvidia. Nvidia set pricing.

I'm not saying what AMD are doing in that is good and proper, it is not, but the reality is people arguing AMD have no right to price X or Y because they don't hold the same value as Nvidia does nothing other than justify Nvidia./

 

[humbug]

Only if i agree the 7900XT should be $200 to $250 cheaper than the 4080, what you're doing now is trying to get me to argue a price higher than your suggestion, and $200 cheaper than the 6800XT.

I would argue the 6800XT was not an unreasonable price.
The 6800XT was $649, the 7900XT is 27% faster.

I would also argue the 3080 was not an unreasonable price.
The 3080 was $699, the 4080 is 40% faster.

From that its not difficult to come to a rational consensus.

Edited: 4080 from 50% to 40% faster after double checking TPU.

 

[humbug]

Not as bad as some tech stocks. Still doing well in DC

AMD revenue beats targets, Wall St relieved after Intel's grim outlook

By Chavi Mehta and Jane Lanhee Lee (Reuters) -U.S. chip maker Advanced Micro Devices Inc on Tuesday posted revenue that beat Wall Street targets and said it expected business to improve in...

www.streetinsider.com

Yup, they beat estimations by $80 Million, not huge but still higher than expected which in this climate is very good.

$5.6 billion turnover for Q4 2022
Gross profits $2.4 Billion (43%) down 7 percentage points from 2021.
Operating expenses $2.56 billion

Operating income was $149 million loss due to amortization of intangible assets associated to Xilinx, what this means is AMD overpaid for Xlinx and that difference in fair value vs what AMD actually paid for it is calculated end of year and recorded as a loss, $1.4 billion for that, even though its not actually a physical loss.

Revenue by segment:

Data centre. $1.7 billion, up 42% Y/Y, income was $444 million, 27% margins.
Client. $0.9 billion, down 52% Y/Y, loss of $152 million. This due to weak PC shipments.
Gaming. $1.6 billion, down 7% Y/Y, income of $266 million, 16%.
Embedded. $1.4 billion, up 1,868% Y/Y, income $699 million, 50%.

Annual revenue 2022.
$24.1 billion, up 20% vs 2021.

Outlook, AMD expects $5.3 billion in Q1 2023 with 50% margins.

AMD's total tangible assets and free cash: $67.58 billion
Total debts and liabilities: $6.37 billion.

Pretty good, still.

This article sums it up.

AMD: Shake It Off

Advanced Micro Devices reported Q4 earnings and expenses are still very high and PC demand still is poor. Click here for our full take on AMD earnings.

seekingalpha.com

 

[humbug]

MLID always speaking to industry insiders asked them what they thought of the Intel vs AMD situation for the future, some shrugged and said "Intel making AMD products"

Intel has a very good thing in their foundry busniss, even if they can't quite match TSMC they are still one of the top foundries and that's really important, Intel are not going anywhere, but as a company they could be quite different to how we are used to seeing them, and sooner than we think.

 

[humbug]

The truth is Intel have already been wooing them.....

Home - OC3D

overclock3d.net

 

[humbug]

AMD way passed Intel market cap atm

AMD 131Bn
Intel 117Bn

Yeah AMD's shares have gone up about 15% today off the back of these results.

 

[humbug]

And they came off with that crack a while ago "amd are now in the rear view mirror and never again will they be in the windshield" whilst still not being able to offer a cpu like epyc. They must have a different comprehension of lagging behind in areas than the rest of the planet.

Intel's own investors told him to walk that back because it was blatantly not true, and so he did, because its not a good look for the CEO to be so far out of touch with reality.

 

[humbug]

still waiting for my AMD divvy

Intel slashes dividend by nearly two-thirds to shore up cash as chip giant braces for a tough year

In January, when Intel reported one of its worst financial quarters in years, the chip giant worked to keep up investor confidence by holding its dividend steady at $0.365/share. The company today announced that it was revising its dividend to $0.125 per share, down nearly two-thirds, as part...

uk.finance.yahoo.com

Can't tell if serious.. AMD don't pay dividends, not since 1997.

I can see why Intel cut theirs and i don't blame them, it is an incentive to invest in the first place but giving people a share of your profits can be very costly, especially if you're already struggling to make any, which Intel are.

Some investors are not going to be happy about it, because gib muh money... Intel's shares are down to under $26, its as low as its ever been and their market cap is in danger of falling below $100 Billion. To put that in to perspective AMD bought ATI for $5.7 Billion, Xilinx for $42 Billion and Pensando for $3 Billion.

 

[humbug]

AMD GPU and console revenue catching up to Nvidia:

AMD GPU Sales Not That Far Behind NVIDIA's in Revenue Terms

While AMD Radeon PC discrete GPUs have a lot of catching up to do against NVIDIA GeForce products in terms of market-share, the two companies' quarterly revenue figures paint a very different picture. For Q4 2022, AMD pushed $1.644 billion in GPU products encompassing all its markets, namely the...

www.techpowerup.com

While AMD Radeon PC discrete GPUs have a lot of catching up to do against NVIDIA GeForce products in terms of market-share, the two companies' quarterly revenue figures paint a very different picture. For Q4 2022, AMD pushed $1.644 billion in GPU products encompassing all its markets, namely the semicustom chips powering Xbox Series X/S and PlayStation 5 consoles; and AMD Radeon products. In the same period, NVIDIA raked in $1.831 billion in revenues from semicustom chips powering Nintendo Switch console, GeForce NOW cloud-gaming service, and NVIDIA GeForce products. In purely revenue terms, AMD is bringing in 89% the revenue of NVIDIA from client graphics IP, which begins to explain how AMD is a major player in this market.

I find that really interesting.... AMD only have 10% of the discrete GPU market and they are cheaper GPU's than Nvidia, so that's not where the revenue came from.
Consoles:

XBox Series X
XBox Series S
Playstation 5
Steamdeck

And Steamdeck like handhelds.

GPD WIN 4
AYANEO
ONEXPlayer
AYN Odin

That's as tragic as it is impressive.

 

[humbug]

Interesting...

GPU Marketshare
With AMD earning $1.65 Billion (@51% Margins) vs Nvidia's $1.85 Billion (@66% Margins) The idea that Nvidia have 90% market share is nonsensical, These numbers come from data points like Steam Hardware Survey, apparently analysts are getting tired of things like Steam Hardware Survey as they realise they are complete and utter BS.
There seems to be some shenanigans going on with them, Nvidia push a lot of these 1650 5GB cards that aren't actually 1650's to internet cafes for very cheap and multiple Steam accounts get pinged for the Survey on the same machine, perhaps even that Nvidia systems get pinged a lot more than AMD ones....
You see something similar to this in action on Steam Hardware Survey when it comes to CPU's, AMD will take a 3 percentage point share over 3, 4, 5 months (that's millions of machines) and suddenly Intel gets a 4 percentage point jump in one month, AMD claws it back again over several months and then bang millions of Intel based systems are added to the data, over and over and over......
Analysts do, or used to use these data points to calculate how well a company is doing vs a competitor.
When you look at the actual financial results none of it adds up and people are starting to notice, the consensus is that AMD's actual marketshare vs Nvidia is around 30 to 40%. not 10%. On the CPU side its also no doubt much higher vs Intel than Steam would suggest. AMD's Zen CPU's have been outselling Intel by 2X to 5X over the last 3 years, pre-build and laptops have gone from 0 to 20% in that time too, you can't have that and AMD's Steam Market Share change by 5 percentage points, it doesn't add up.

Inventory.
Both AMD and Nvidia have more inventory right now than they usually do, AMD 2.5X Nvidia 4X, so they are not selling as well as they anticipated.
On that Nvidia are far less likely to drop prices because they are in a petition to off load that inventory to people who want workstation and data centre cards at a reduced price, AMD aren't so a price cut for us is far more likely from the AMD camp.

AMD price cuts incoming.

 

[humbug]

AMD's recovery seems to be at the demise of Intel
INTC. SP $24.90. Lowest for 10 years!
Mkt Cap 102Bn

AMD Market Cap $126Bn

 

[humbug]

I disagree on GPU marketshare.

During the shortage and since, AMD barely bothered. And current availability for anything above a 6700 is really poor. And while now is not a sure way to say what happened the last 3 years, the used market gives a hint too.

Not just fleabay but also that high-street vendor of used parts: AMD availability is really really low with cards like the 3070 outnumbering the 6700 and similarly with the 6800 and 3080. And consequently used prices of Nvidia are actually lower a lot of the time with a 6900 and a 3090 almost the same price. (Yes, I guess it is possible that consumers have finally had enough of the stingy VRAM on Nvidia cards and 8GB/10GB no longer appeals but I doubt that.)

How do you account for AMD's 90% of Nvidia's revenue if they only sell 10% as many GPU's?

 

[humbug]

Consoles. But your initial post went on about dGPU sales so not consoles.

From stuff from sale both new and used I simply barely see any Radeons at all. When 7nm wafers were super scarce, most they had to spare after the super low margins consoles and servers, went to 7nm CPUs as those make far more margin per mm2 than GPUs.

In the dGPU market, I think AMD have barely had one toe in the water since 2020.

Nvidia include GeForce Now and the Nintendo Switch in their revenue, the switch sells as many units as the Series X/S and PS5 put together.

I'm not saying AMD have sales parity with Nvidia but 1 in 10 is way off unless AMD are making about $300 per console and that's not happening....

 

[humbug]

Look, at $300 per console AMD would have to be selling 5,500,000 consoles every quarter (every 3 Months) to make $1.65 Billion.

They don't sell that many consoles in a year, they are certainly not getting $300 a pop.

 

[humbug]

Tech Stock Pro think AMD are over valued, they won't gain much market share in 2023, they wont benefit from AI (This despite owning the largest maker of FPGA's) and they think AMD margins will take a significant hit during 2023.

They are upset about the markets bullishness on AMD, completely ignoring the reasons for it

AMD: Tone Deaf To Demand Headwinds - Downgraded To Sell (NASDAQ:AMD)

We’re downgrading Advanced Micro Devices to a sell. We believe AMD stock has now more than captured the expectation of recovery in demand. Read more here.

seekingalpha.com

In November last year they said exactly the opposite.... when AMD's shares hit rock bottom compared with recent trends. AMD's share price has shot up in the last couple of weeks.... Yeah Shorts anyone?

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4555381-amd-the-worst-is-priced-in-buy

At the time of writing this.

 

[humbug]

Intel are seen as critical to US interests, the US government will not allow Intel to fail, they will literally pour endless money in to a black hole to keep them alive. If it wasn't for that Intel would already be doomed, not dead but if they wanted to remain in the X86 space they would have to follow AMD in going fables, and they would have to try and keep up with a frankly much more agile and competent AMD.

Its not the CPU's, its the fabs, Intel are the biggest and best hope for bleeding edge western fab independence, on that i agree and i also agree with government subsidies for Intel.
With that Intel may have to pull back on their X86 business, if not pull out if they cannot prove they can make that part of their business profitable in its own right, which right now it is not. The US government will not subsidise that.
Once these fabs are running Intel will have to open their doors to AMD and Nvidia, which i think they will want to anyway.

 

[humbug]

Q1 2023, quick run down.

None-GAAP.

Revenue $5.4 Billion, Down 9% Y/Y. Beat estimates by $40 Million.

Datacentre: $1.3Bn (Flat Y/Y)
Client: $749M (Down 65% Y/Y)
Gaming: $1.8Bn (Down 6% Y/Y)
Embedded: $1.6Bn (Up 163% Y/Y)

Gross Margins: 44%, down 4 percentage points Y/Y. @CAT-THE-FIFTH AMD's margins have fallen.

Advanced Micro Devices Non-GAAP EPS of $0.60 beats by $0.04, revenue of $5.35B beats by $40M (NASDAQ:AMD)

Advanced Micro Devices press release (AMD): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.60 beats by $0.04.Revenue of $5.35B (-9.2% Y/Y) beats by $40M.Shares +2%.For the second quarter of 2023, AMD...

seekingalpha.com

View attachment o6PbeIG.jpg

 

[humbug]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1653519077275475968

Eh? Um.... While its not great his own slide shows they are 9% down on this time last year, which was the best Q1 result they have ever had, did he expect them to better last years Q1 in a downturn?

Its as expected, slightly better even, he was a bit angry hyperbolic with his "Radeon Surrenders" video, i think maybe he's feeling under the weather, a cup of warm milk with some honey and a good long sleep might do him some good.