AMD on the road to recovery.

LePhuronn · 25 Oct 2018 at 13:25

muziqaz said:
Though kinda disappointed with AMDs inability to convert Intels shortages into their own benefit

???

Things don't happen overnight, and it's been like a month since Intel announced shortages. It's going to take a while for those who were waiting on the 9000 series to decide if they're jumping ship to Ryzen, but that doesn't influence server buyers who are already flocking to EPYC.

And let's be honest, AMD benefiting from Intel's shortages is entirely reliant on customers buying their stuff; shortages or not, AMD can't gain market share if nobody buys AMD.

muziqaz · 25 Oct 2018 at 13:41

The problem is (and I might be wrong), that 3rd quarter was supposed to be strong one, wasn't it? Back to school stuff and such. Besides, shortages were happening way before Intel decided to speak about them

I was expecting 3rd quarter numbers to be at least flat compared to last quarter. After all, Zen has been on the market for quite a while now. I would expect AMD position to improve with each quarter, which wasn't the case yesterday, was it?

LePhuronn · 25 Oct 2018 at 13:47

AMD don't have the mining revenue now, so that was going to dip thiings. Plus, Intel milked the 9000 hype and release so a lot of mainstream consumers would have been holding off their purchases until the chip actually landed, which in turn means they weren't buying Ryzen. And yes, the Intel shortages would have been going on for a while, but it wouldn't have been long enough for OEMs to decide on a AMD switchover and get their back to school offerings powered by Red Team.

It will probably even itself out: Q3 is lower than expected but Q4 might be higher than expected because consumer decisions will have been made now and acted upon.

Lokken86 · 25 Oct 2018 at 13:51

LePhuronn said:
AMD don't have the mining revenue now, so that was going to dip thiings. Plus, Intel milked the 9000 hype and release so a lot of mainstream consumers would have been holding off their purchases until the chip actually landed, which in turn means they weren't buying Ryzen. And yes, the Intel shortages would have been going on for a while, but it wouldn't have been long enough for OEMs to decide on a AMD switchover and get their back to school offerings powered by Red Team.

It will probably even itself out: Q3 is lower than expected but Q4 might be higher than expected because consumer decisions will have been made now and acted upon.

Don't forget black Friday and Christmas are coming. A lot of people will hold off a purchase if they think they can get a good deal later. The new to pc gaming section of the forum is testiment to that.

muziqaz · 25 Oct 2018 at 13:53

LePhuronn said:
AMD don't have the mining revenue now, so that was going to dip thiings. Plus, Intel milked the 9000 hype and release so a lot of mainstream consumers would have been holding off their purchases until the chip actually landed, which in turn means they weren't buying Ryzen. And yes, the Intel shortages would have been going on for a while, but it wouldn't have been long enough for OEMs to decide on a AMD switchover and get their back to school offerings powered by Red Team.

It will probably even itself out: Q3 is lower than expected but Q4 might be higher than expected because consumer decisions will have been made now and acted upon.

The lack of more laptop design wins for Zen is disturbing, and AMD did forecast weaker than expected Q4 as well.
Enthusiast market is droplet in revenues, and 9900K fiasco was a good laugh.
I do hope AMD goes from strength to strength every quarter, while they have a chance.Not every day you get Pentium 4 v2 from intel

NinjaCool · 25 Oct 2018 at 18:32

Lisa Su on quarterly earnings and her forecast for the next year

Panos · 25 Oct 2018 at 19:21

NinjaCool said:
Lisa Su on quarterly earnings and her forecast for the next year

All current sales due to Intel shambles, it will occure on Q4 sales. However AMD is still up compared to last year.

Beren · 25 Oct 2018 at 20:03

Their stock badly needed a correction. I think the next 24 months are going to be good, but the acceleration they saw over the last 6 weeks was unsustainable. Plus the rest of the market isnt exactly doing amazeballs.

Lokken86 · 25 Oct 2018 at 21:01

Beren said:
Their stock badly needed a correction. I think the next 24 months are going to be good, but the acceleration they saw over the last 6 weeks was unsustainable. Plus the rest of the market isnt exactly doing amazeballs.

+1. When stock takes off like a rocket it's never sustainable.

CAT-THE-FIFTH · 26 Oct 2018 at 11:05

This is worth a read:

https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-...icro-devices-inc-amd-q3-2018-earnings-co.aspx

Maybe I would answer the question this way. When we look at our 7-nanometer product and its positioning in 2019 across the server landscape, we feel very good about the positioning. I think it's not just 7-nanometer, 7-nanometer is important, but we've also made some significant changes to the architecture, as well as how -- sort of the system. So, I think overall we feel with the design and process capabilities at our 7-nanometer products will be quite competitive.

Well, we have a great relationship with TSMC, I think they're very supportive of our roadmap in 7-nanometer. So it's not due to any supply constraints. It's just due to the time that we believe it will take for vendors to really qualify new systems.

So, the way I look at it, Vivek is, it's really a continuum. And the continuum is, we have a number of customers that are very actively working with EPYC. I think the first 5% does include some cloud customers ramping and that's important. And then as we go beyond that, we would expect that they're more used to our architecture. Our architecture socket compatible between the first and second generation we're sampling it now. And so, I think the idea is we would like to see some acceleration in that as we bring in the 7-nanometer product but we'll certainly have to go through that process.

And we will go through this in a lot more detail on November 6. But at a high level, I think 7-nanometer gives us a better density. So for a given system we can put more cores on it. It gives us better power. So that gives us total cost of ownership. And it does give us better performance as well.

It appears AMD will have a Horizon event on November 6th talking about Zen2.

CAT-THE-FIFTH · 26 Oct 2018 at 11:05

I was looking at the results and the reason why stocks have dipped is because AMD GPU sales are down due to the crypto crash.

AMD Q3 2018 Computing and Graphics
Q3'2018 Q2'2018 Q3'2017
Revenue $938M $1086M $835M
Operating Income $100M $117M $73M

So revenue is up and so is income,despite GPU sales probably being considerably less than one year ago.

Apparently Ryzen is responsible for 70% of the income of AMD.

humbug · 26 Oct 2018 at 11:18

Yeah AMD need new GPU's, surprise surprise....

They still made $102m after tax this quarter.

And look at it this way:
In 2016 AMD made a $497m loss.
In 2017 AMD introduced Ryzen and made $43m profit.
So far this year with 1 quarter still to go they have made $299m profit.

They will make over $400m this year, that's really good.

And there is more to it:
In 2016 they spent $1b on R&D
In 2017 R&D spend was $1.1b
So far this year AMD have spent $1.07b on R&D
So as well as ending with healthy amounts of profits (money in the pocket after expenditures including taxes) their R&D spend is also going up.

muziqaz · 26 Oct 2018 at 15:23

Price is still going down. And I already spent my allowance for this month on their stock yesterday

Market is going to be in for a nice shock once Rome hits the fan

hopefully bafoons in Wallstreet will figure out what hit them

EsaT · 26 Oct 2018 at 16:11

Beren said:
Their stock badly needed a correction.

But Intel's stock not?

With no new manufacturing node in near future, it's Intel which is going to suffer clear drop of profits on highly profitable server CPU markets in next year or so.
They won't be able to compete in core counts and hence processing power, while already huge monolithic chips are expensive to make.
Both in cost and no doubt eating lots of limited wafer production capacity, at time when 10nm SNAFU has denied increase of production capacity to meet demand.
While AMD is really only starting to pick up pace in server CPU sales.

And Ryzen 3000 will likely crash Intel desktop CPU prices decreasing Intel's profits also on that side.
Unless people keep paying arm and leg for getting that blue sticker on PC.

Sure in long term Intel's bank account gives plenty of time to wait for AMD to make mistake, regardless if Intel keeps bungling still for years.
But AMD is fast rising to equality in technology.
Heck, AMD is already partially ahead in server CPU side with their modular CPU design.
That should show in stock prices.

LePhuronn · 26 Oct 2018 at 16:14

EsaT said:
That should show in stock prices.

It will next year. Right now AMD's stock rocketed based on anticipation of what it could all mean, but once we have actual numbers to support the potential then we'll see stock go back up to where it was and hopefully stay.

Shame I have no money

DarrenM343 · 26 Oct 2018 at 17:36

EsaT said:
But Intel's stock not?

No, Intel's share price is already a fair one for now. AMD's rise got out of hand,

EsaT said:
With no new manufacturing node in near future, it's Intel which is going to suffer clear drop of profits on highly profitable server CPU markets in next year or so.
They won't be able to compete in core counts and hence processing power, while already huge monolithic chips are expensive to make.
Both in cost and no doubt eating lots of limited wafer production capacity, at time when 10nm SNAFU has denied increase of production capacity to meet demand.
While AMD is really only starting to pick up pace in server CPU sales.
And Ryzen 3000 will likely crash Intel desktop CPU prices decreasing Intel's profits also on that side.
Unless people keep paying arm and leg for getting that blue sticker on PC.
Sure in long term Intel's bank account gives plenty of time to wait for AMD to make mistake, regardless if Intel keeps bungling still for years.
But AMD is fast rising to equality in technology.
Heck, AMD is already partially ahead in server CPU side with their modular CPU design.
That should show in stock prices.

The next year+ will be interesting. It's always hard to know for sure. The latest results from Intel were pretty good. I think AMD are going to be doing pretty well too .

4K8KW10 · 26 Oct 2018 at 20:36

muziqaz said:
Price is still going down. And I already spent my allowance for this month on their stock yesterday Market is going to be in for a nice shock once Rome hits the fan hopefully bafoons in Wallstreet will figure out what hit them

This stock correction is indeed extremely weird - cut 50% in value?!

NinjaCool · 1 Nov 2018 at 10:59

New sales data for October 2018 from Mindfactory

AMD is still doing great compared to the October preview that I posted about earlier.
It will be interesting to see how big of an impact Intel's 9000 series will have going into the Christmas season.

RavenXXX2 · 1 Nov 2018 at 11:07

AMD destroying Intel in sales right there. As for Intel, they can't even supply the market so little will change over Xmas.

humbug · 1 Nov 2018 at 13:39

NinjaCool said:
New sales data for October 2018 from Mindfactory

AMD is still doing great compared to the October preview that I posted about earlier.
It will be interesting to see how big of an impact Intel's 9000 series will have going into the Christmas season.

RavenXXX2 said:
AMD destroying Intel in sales right there. As for Intel, they can't even supply the market so little will change over Xmas.