Apocalypse - Yes? No?

[NeilF]

So, in our life time, or our kids life time (say the next 100yrs even), are we going to get an apocalypse? And by apocalypse I mean a substantial event that means a cataclysmic affect on humanity - Not the end of humanity, but a massive death rate, or a massive drop in technology level(s).

So:-
- Global warming: Causing starvation to some degree. Remember previous high temperatures on the earth have wiped out the majority of life on the planet.
- Ocean acidification: Again, starvation.
- Virus: H5N1 for example, has a mortality rate of about 2/3rds. If it makes the jump to humans, and transmits as easily as a normal flu? Who would go to work? Who would go to the shops to buy food? Who you fill the shops? Who would even leave the house?
- Fossil fuels: If nuclear fusion doesn't turn out to be viable, then what will happen when the fossil fuels run out? Famine and a drop in technology.
- Over population: 8-10-20 billion people. Where are all the resources going to come from.


Anyone think in 100yrs we would have sailed through all these pitfalls and still have progressed nicely?

 

[The Dread Pirate]

Most likley will be either desiese wiping us out (this could happen anytime) or Gwobal wabbl(Won't be fatal for god knows how long). Fossil Fuels will eventually run out but by then our expierience with extracting biofuels will be more than sufficiant to keep us going besides if all else fails we can always go back to burning wood as a renewable fuel source.

 

[Moley]

The biggest of these issues and therefore the most likely to lead to some kind of catastrophic event is overpopulation.

Simply put, this planet has limited natural resources and we are already past the point in human population terms of its sustainability.

As food, land and fuel resources become scarcer, wars will inevitably break out as countries fight over their needs.

I think it was Albert Einstein who said "I don't know what weapons will be used in World War Three, but World War Four will be fought with sticks and stones."

The culling is possibly inevitable and certainly good for the planet...

 

[mangobreeder]

ah i thought this was going to be a war hammer thread

 

[HeX]

We'll have viable Fusion power within the next 100years, soon as that happens and it is rolled out power issues are a thing of the past, CO2 emmisions and pollution levels in general will drop sharply. This new power source will be allow us to access more land for building/crop cultivation. Wars will stop. Men and women around the world will unite as one. Rainbows and Unicorns will spring forth from every corner of the world.

\o/

So yeah, it is all down to if we get Fusion soon enough.

 

[V4NT0M]

Didn't read the thread but;

YES!!!

 

[antijoke]

I predict there will a problem with food in the future, that will lead to millions dying.

 

[NeilF]

Most likley will be either desiese wiping us out or Gwobal wabbl. Fossil Fuels will eventually run out but by then our expierience with extracting biofuels will be more than sufficiant to keep us going besides if all else fails we can always go back to burning wood as a renewable fuel source

I think I'm right in saying bio fuels just cannot produce enough... Especially as we need crops to eat as well!

 

[Cosimo]

I’m sure that we’ll find a way to overcome these obstacles.

 

[Nix]

Probably, probably not. It depends on too many factors.

 

[EffBee]

So, in our life time, or our kids life time (say the next 100yrs even), are we going to get an apocalypse? And by apocalypse I mean a substantial event that means a cataclysmic affect on humanity - Not the end of humanity, but a massive death rate, or a massive drop in technology level(s).

So:-
- Global warming: Causing starvation to some degree. Remember previous high temperatures on the earth have wiped out the majority of life on the planet.
- Ocean acidification: Again, starvation.
- Virus: H5N1 for example, has a mortality rate of about 2/3rds. If it makes the jump to humans, and transmits as easily as a normal flu? Who would go to work? Who would go to the shops to buy food? Who you fill the shops? Who would even leave the house?
- Fossil fuels: If nuclear fusion doesn't turn out to be viable, then what will happen when the fossil fuels run out? Famine and a drop in technology.
- Over population: 8-10-20 billion people. Where are all the resources going to come from.


Anyone think in 100yrs we would have sailed through all these pitfalls and still have progressed nicely?

30 years ago it was all acid rain and the ozone layer. There will always be something to worry about.

Personally I don't see a massive catastrophic apocalypse occurring. I think there will be a slow gradual degradation of the environment leading to widespread health issues, fertility issues, fresh water shortages and food production problems. Issues such as you mention will add to these effects but not be the killer blow you are thinking. There will be even more widespread differences in lifestyle between haves and have-nots. There will be an increase in social discontent, and an increase in national tensions. There will be a lot more nasty little wars as the rich west grabs world's dwindling resources for itself.

The next couple of hundred years will, I think, not be very pleasant. We are probably near the peak of individual standards of living in the west.

 

[NeilF]

So yeah, it is all down to if we get Fusion soon enough.

Amazing how important fusion is, yet how little effort is being put into getting it working! It should be a like the mission to put man on the moon, but on an even more global scale, yet we seem to be pottering along.

Estimates/guesses so far are its going to be 2050 till it's viable. That's a long time, and lot more people, and lot more Co2!

 

[HeX]

Amazing how important fusion is, yet how little effort is being put into getting it working! It should be a like the mission to put man on the moon, but on an even more global scale, yet we seem to be pottering along.

Estimates/guesses so far are its going to be 2050 till it's viable. That's a long time, and lot more people, and lot more Co2!

Yeah, scientists reckon it'll be proved viable ~2035-2040, and commercially available ~2050.

If all goes according to plan and no one finds a fundamental problem with the entire thing...

 

[The Dread Pirate]

I think I'm right in saying bio fuels just cannot produce enough... Especially as we need crops to eat as well!

By the time we reach the point of running out of fossil fules in the ground It'll be possible the biofules industry and technology is growing and advancing about as fast as computing technology at the moment. The crops used to create biofules are the ones that used for animal feed and not the crops for human consumption

 

[HeX]

By the time we reach the point of running out of fossil fules in the ground It'll be possible the biofules industry and technology is growing and advancing about as fast as computing technology at the moment. The crops used to create biofules are the ones that used for animal feed and not the crops for human consumption

Not true i'm afraid, there was a Horizon ep about all this the other week and to meet the energy needs of everyone on the planet using totally renewable sources, we are talking a mix of everything from solar to tidal to biofuels, the lot, just isn't viable.

The calculations were showing that you'd have to start building hundreds of wind turbines every day, from now until the next 25 years or so. Same goes for solar, you'd need to construct something like 100m2 of solar panels every second for the next umpteen years. You'd need to open a new nuclear powerplant every week for the next 20+ years. etc etc.

It just isn't doable. Hence the real need for Fusion.

If Fusion is found to be a dead end, then we are in real trouble.

 

[NeilF]

By the time we reach the point of running out of fossil fules in the ground It'll be possible the biofules industry and technology is growing and advancing about as fast as computing technology at the moment. The crops used to create biofules are the ones that used for animal feed and not the crops for human consumption

Oh good! Cos we don't need meat do we

 

[VoG]

- Fossil fuels: If nuclear fusion doesn't turn out to be viable, then what will happen when the fossil fuels run out? Famine and a drop in technology.

Methane hydrate has the potential to be the next big thing as far as natural resources go ( apparently ) so i don't think it'll be the depletion of fossil fuels that proves to be the trigger.

 

[NeilF]

think there will be a slow gradual degradation of the environment leading to widespread health issues, fertility issues, fresh water shortages and food production problems.

Good point! It's interested at the moment fertility is noticably dropping, and more and more people are getting strange allergies etc.

 

[NeilF]

Methane hydrate has the potential to be the next big thing as far as natural resources go ( apparently ) so i don't think it'll be the depletion of fossil fuels that proves to be the trigger.

I thought methane was an evern worse greenhouse gas than Co2.

Methane hydrates themselves are a big worry. If the oceans warm enough, they thaw from the ocean flaw and snowball (turbo charge) global warming... Horrible!

 

[Azagoth]

I thought the general consensus about this sort of thing is that it's 2012 when the **** hits the fan.*

*I don't believe that guff myself.