Axe personal allowance and pay everyone £48 a week, says thinktank

Soldato
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I mean I dont know how I can explain it anymore, if you give everyone money especially poorer people, then the economy benefits, which means "everyone" is better off. I think you might be assuming I am poor, maybe even unemployed because of my posts. Certain people may not benefit directly but they will indirectly.

It is no coincidence once a country adopts social security their economies explode vs before adopting it.

Demonstrably false.

You have it the wrong way around .. countries whose economies have done well can implement social security measures...

Implementing social security doesn't, in of itself, cause the economy to improve.

Swedish Growth in International Perspective
The century-long period from the 1870s to the 1970s comprises the most successful part of Swedish industrialization and growth.

Table 1 Annual Economic Growth Rates per Capita in Industrial Nations and the World Economy, 1871-2005

Sweden
1875-1971 - 2.4
1975-2001 - 1.7

Rest of Nordic Countries
1875-1971 2.0
1975-2001 2.2 (Caracus2k note - I imagine this figure is *very* heavily skewed due to the mass extraction of Norwegian oil and gas in this period so isn't indicative, necessarily, of anything to do with the welfare states in the other Nordic countries in this time)

Rest of Western Europe

1875-1971 - 1.7
1971-2001 - 1.9

United States

1875-1971 - 1.8
1971-2001 - 2.0

Japan

1875-1971 - 2.4
1971-2001 - 2.2

World

1875-1971 - 1.5
1971-2001 - 1.6

Note: Rest of Nordic countries = Denmark, Finland and Norway.

Rest of Western Europe = Austria, Belgium, Britain, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Switzerland.

Sweeden often raised as an example of a 'good' social security state had its biggest growth *before* its welfare state took of in earnest and since the 70's growth per capita has fallen behind the rest of Europe average, The USA and Japan.

Further more in the period since 1971 Sweeden did a lot better when the halted and started to roll back the more left wing measures they had previously implemented!

Table 6 Annual Growth Rates per Capita 1971 - 2005

Sweden

1971 - 1991 - 1.2
1991 - 2005 - 2.5

Rest of Nordic Countries

1971 - 1991 - 2.1
1991 - 2005 - 2.5

Rest of Western Europe

1971 - 1991 - 1.8
1991 - 2005 - 1.7

United States

1971 - 1991 - 1.6
1991 - 2005 - 2.1

World

1971 - 1991 - 1.4
1991 - 2005 - 2.1

During the 1980s some of the constituent components of the Swedish model were weakened or eliminated. Centralized negotiations and solidaristic wage policy disappeared. Regulations in the capital market were dismantled under the pressure of increasing international capital flows simultaneously with a forceful revival of the stock market. The expansion of public sector services came to an end and the taxation system was reformed with a reduction of marginal tax rates. Thus, Swedish economic policy and welfare system became more adapted to the main European level that facilitated the Swedish application of membership and final entrance into the European Union in 1995.

So I'll knock it back to you if you want to try and rebut me by showing examples of countries whoose economies took of after massiviely increasing their welfare state.

The socialist Venezuelan state showered their populace with freebies. . How did that work out?
 
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Man of Honour
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Indeed... though the same arguments will keep on getting presented that this time it is different because [reasons]. In this case super duper magical AI.

You are misrepresenting the position. In many cases, it doesn't require any AI at all. Do you, for example, regard a website as "super duper magical AI"? The automated food ordering system in some food outlets as "super duper magical AI"? Automated stock monitoring using RFID as "super duper magical AI"? Etc, etc. I don't. I doubt if you do, either. It's just a convenient phrase to use to dismiss a line of argument you can't make a counter-argument towards.
 
Caporegime
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You are misrepresenting the position. In many cases, it doesn't require any AI at all. Do you, for example, regard a website as "super duper magical AI"? The automated food ordering system in some food outlets as "super duper magical AI"? Automated stock monitoring using RFID as "super duper magical AI"? Etc, etc. I don't. I doubt if you do, either. It's just a convenient phrase to use to dismiss a line of argument you can't make a counter-argument towards.

No it's fine, you don't need super duper AI for computers in general or for steam power etc... I'm not seeing anything new here that is all. Just the same old luddite argument. super duper AI just seems to be the reason put forth by some as to why this time it will be different.
 
Man of Honour
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No it's fine, you don't need super duper AI for computers in general or for steam power etc... I'm not seeing anything new here that is all. Just the same old luddite argument. super duper AI just seems to be the reason put forth by some as to why this time it will be different.

You don't see anything new because you're ignoring everything new. Ignore your obsession with the "super duper AI" that has been mentioned only by you. That's some way off, if it ever happens. It's largely irrelevant at the moment.

You're arguing that there is no significant difference between early (and very primitive) partially automated looms and suchlike and the recent proliferation of modern "phones" and a global comms system being used for numerous tasks that would otherwise require quite a few person-hours of work (to give just one example of increasing automation). You're assuming that billions of person-hours of paid work per week will automatically appear in currently unknown areas of work for unknown reasons.

It's not a strong argument, to put it mildly, and you give no evidence or reasoning in support of it.

It's true that in the past a reduction in paid work available in agriculture was eventually (after a huge amount of suffering and death) offset by an increase in paid work in manufacturing (which caused even more suffering and death) and that a reduction in paid work in manufacturing was offset by an increase in paid work in distribution and service...but where's the next growth area of mass paid work? Are we all going to be painting each other's fingernails for a living and making Youtube videos of it?

Of course this time is different - the technology is far better and far more integrated.
 
Caporegime
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You're arguing that there is no significant difference between early (and very primitive) partially automated looms and suchlike and the recent proliferation of modern "phones" and a global comms system being used for numerous tasks that would otherwise require quite a few person-hours of work (to give just one example of increasing automation).

No I'm not arguing that there is no difference between them, I would argue that the effect is similar though.

You're assuming that billions of person-hours of paid work per week will automatically appear in currently unknown areas of work for unknown reasons.

It's not a strong argument, to put it mildly, and you give no evidence or reasoning in support of it.

Really - if you're talking about the above then you have evidence already in the form of employment figures.

Of course this time is different - the technology is far better and far more integrated.

Yet we've got record high employment....
 
Soldato
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No it's fine, you don't need super duper AI for computers in general or for steam power etc... I'm not seeing anything new here that is all. Just the same old luddite argument. super duper AI just seems to be the reason put forth by some as to why this time it will be different.

Seems a pretty good reason to put forth why it will be different to me. Previous major leap forward in machine capability was physical. And it massively displaced those in such work. How many people do you see out in the wheatfields at harvest time these days? One or two with a combine harvester. Ditto for factory workers replaced by robots. Now it's mostly just quite skilled types of physical labour that are viable to make a living at - building work for example. The population survived the intrusion of technology into physical competency by retreating into mental competency. Now technological advancement is intruding on mental competency what further ground do people have to retreat into this time? Social competency? Spiritual competency? Is there a vast untapped market for social butterflies? Advanced research? How many people are capable of that?

Technology is advancing rapidly. Human capability largely static. It is an inevitability from those two established axioms that the gap between human competency and machine competency is narrowing. And that translates directly into the field of work. Short of a catastrophic social collapse, we have to find a way of dealing with this.
 
Soldato
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Haven't read through all this... but... sorta odd in places near the start.

The UK's currently... pretty right wing. The left is painted as a pantomime bad guy by most of our right wing owned press, when they're suggesting stuff that's ultra common everywhere else in Europe.
Consider how most European countries seem to run compared to the US. I... think I'd prefer German or Scandinavian style governance and general country feel to that of the states...

The whole thing with e.g the trains. Vilified for suggesting to bringing it back into public ownership, instead it should be run by private companies, owned by other states so profits are spent on their publicly owned rail network...
The only folks winning there are those at the top (who profit from the shares in these companies). Meanwhile there's a few suggestions on us spreading our crumbs around a little more fairly, at the same time as their press seeks to neatly divide us into different camps, all sniping at each other and trying to rob each others crumbs... it's nuts. I don't get how people think.
Follow where money goes and the problem quickly becomes apparent.
 
Caporegime
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because it includes zero hour contracts. I think the actual definition was that 10 hours work in 2 weeks is considered employed.

Only for a minority of jobs... still that is employment regardless and people are seemingly advocating mass unemployment... which isn't happening.
 
Soldato
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So, in an official downturn in an economy, when the stats are so good the end of their nose is in another timezone, you're going to ignore everything and believe the stats? Ok. I'll let you keep your opinion, I'll keep mine :)
 
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