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Brexit Discussion - The new thread

Discussion in 'Speaker's Corner' started by Feek, Sep 5, 2019.

  1. Jono8

    Caporegime

    Joined: May 20, 2007

    Posts: 28,999

    Location: Surrey

    They won't

    You will notice they are using very muddy language and not one of them is outright discounting an extension.

    Ie Macron just now:

    He told a press conference at the close of the EU summit in Brussels: “So that we can turn to the future, I believe that we shall stick to the deadline of October 31.

    “That being said, I’m not trying to read the future but I do not think we shall grant any further delay.

    “I believe it is now time to put an end to these negotiations and work on the future relationship and put an end to what is currently ongoing.

    “Like I said, there shall be no delay unless there are some major changes.” - This is the important one
     
  2. chrismscotland

    Wise Guy

    Joined: Jul 16, 2009

    Posts: 2,407

    If you really think that any of this is going away even if it is passed tomorrow your sadly deluded, the next stage of this is going to go on for a decade at least.
     
  3. do_ron_ron

    Sgarrista

    Joined: Oct 23, 2002

    Posts: 9,304

    The EU will not refuse an extension. France said they would last time and they voted for it when the time came. The EU does not want to be seen as having pushed the UK out as they have said countless times. Brexit is no more a certainty than it was last time.
     
  4. satchef1

    Mobster

    Joined: Apr 17, 2009

    Posts: 4,272

    Two problems with that:
    1. This isn't the end of the road. There's still the matter of ongoing trading arrangements, which should prove equally contentious. It also seems highly likely that at least one major political party will start campaigning to see us rejoin the EU.
    2. The EU haven't stated that they will refuse an extension. Barnier stated that he can't see any reason for one, which is a wholly different statement. It would be incredibly surprising if the EU rejected an extension request if there was a clear reason for the request (e.g. more time needed to implement the agreement, or time needed for a GE or referendum). UK-EU trade is worth too much for the EU to refuse an extension, if that extension is likely to lead to a mutually beneficial resolution.
     
  5. StarShock

    Wise Guy

    Joined: Nov 6, 2005

    Posts: 1,617

    Assuming Boris' deal goes through that would mean at least 13 more months of negotiation before anything happens as that's what the deal is. If it doesn't Boris will have to ask for an extension. If its not granted I assume there would be a vote on on if we are going to exit without a deal, which would mean a decade or so of talks and deals and chaos or withdraw article 50 and remain.

    At this point the only way this is ending soon is if we remain
     
  6. Murphy

    Wise Guy

    Joined: Sep 16, 2018

    Posts: 2,430

    So, so, much wrong with this.

    I was going to go through it point by point but i suspect it would fall on deaf ears.
     
  7. inogen

    Mobster

    Joined: Jul 19, 2009

    Posts: 3,675

    A least a decade? It will literally, never, never end.

    I really have doubts, no matter how much there's a push to "leave" the EU, we ever will, people have no idea how entangled we are with it, like the whole of the rest of the EU is.

    We could leave with no deal and the first thing on the agenda for the country would be about making micro deals with the EU in order to restore normality.

    The whole thing is just cuckooland, populist vote winning and willful ignorance of facts. It will never, ever end until enough people realise that.

    It's not remainers resisting brexit, it's everything, it's our institutions, our economy, it's the country's very fabric that's resisting it because it's all just words nd misguided concepts and doesn't fit reality.
     
  8. jonneymendoza

    Capodecina

    Joined: Apr 7, 2008

    Posts: 14,950

    On the deal that Boris said the eu said yes to
     
  9. Rilot

    Don

    Joined: Oct 18, 2002

    Posts: 19,682

    Location: Wargrave, UK

  10. Vern1961

    Mobster

    Joined: Mar 29, 2007

    Posts: 2,730

    Location: Swindon UK

    And my regular purchase of imported German beer from the only decent off-licence in Swindon.

    Or more seriously, the IVIG medicine also made in Germany which I rely on every six weeks to keep my neuropathy in check.

    It's exactly this scenario that the Brexiteers with the knotted hankies on their head don't seem to appreciate. And while I can and do purchase British beer, there is no manufacturing base in the UK for immunoglobulin blood products, the only other source I know of is from China likely to be of inferior quality and safety checks for transmittable nasties.

    Brexit other than the lightest of light EEA or Norway style agreement is going to impact real people.
     
  11. StriderX

    Capodecina

    Joined: Mar 18, 2008

    Posts: 21,500

    Seems like the Letwin Amendment is a bit more spicy than originally believed.
     
  12. Azza

    Caporegime

    Joined: Dec 6, 2005

    Posts: 34,615

    Location: Birmingham

    This is an interesting thread.

     
  13. JRS

    Capodecina

    Joined: Jun 6, 2004

    Posts: 14,185

    Location: Burton-on-Trent

    Yeah, but it'll all be okay because...

    ...dowie doesn't think that weakening the Level Playing Field commitments could possibly lead to anything bad...
     
  14. Usher

    Mobster

    Joined: Dec 30, 2004

    Posts: 2,982

    wrong, they already said it would be put to the other EU states who hopefully will refuse an extension
     
  15. dowie

    Caporegime

    Joined: Jan 29, 2008

    Posts: 42,514

    SNP amendment is amusing... delay so we can have a general election... you were literally offered a general election already.
     
  16. StriderX

    Capodecina

    Joined: Mar 18, 2008

    Posts: 21,500

    How can it be wrong and yet you only say "hopefully"?

    France didn't specifically say no (he said no last time and he folded), and Merkel basically said yes and that basically means the rest vote in line.

    Awfully eager for the EU to meddle in the law of the UK now aren't we.
     
  17. do_ron_ron

    Sgarrista

    Joined: Oct 23, 2002

    Posts: 9,304

    The EU have said many times they will not push the UK out as they do not want to be blamed for the resultant mess. They are annoyed, for sure, that the UK ruling party with whom they have negotiated cannot get the deal past their own party.
     
  18. dowie

    Caporegime

    Joined: Jan 29, 2008

    Posts: 42,514

    Not necessarily, especially if as a result of this amendment and the deal is still on the table. It would be an extension asked for for no reason other than because he has to - they could be more likely to justify rejecting at that point vs if it were asked for with a general election or second referendum in mind.

    That doesn’t mean they’d necessarily refuse a further request but at the moment, if as a result of this amendment, it would be essentially them admitting to agreeing to an extension for any reason/no reason when their position publicly has been that there needs to be a reason.
     
  19. StriderX

    Capodecina

    Joined: Mar 18, 2008

    Posts: 21,500

    I think the ploy from Letwin is rather obvious, to force the EU to say no or maybe, though if there actually isn't enough time to push legislation through, he at least provides a pivot.
     
  20. dowie

    Caporegime

    Joined: Jan 29, 2008

    Posts: 42,514

    Quite possible they’d say no. It’s a bit of a double edge sword - on one hand it could help Boris get his deal over the line on the other hand he has to write the letter.