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Brexit Discussion - The new thread

Discussion in 'Speaker's Corner' started by Feek, Sep 5, 2019.

  1. StriderX

    Capodecina

    Joined: Mar 18, 2008

    Posts: 22,423

    No one cared about the 'British' Irish anyway, been a thorn since the GFA was signed and it seemed to be something for which Westminster and the general establishment kinda wanted to ignore as a bunch of embarrassing sycophants unwilling to moderate themselves.

    The fact that they were forced to take same-sex marriage and abortion is entirely in character with the feeling in the rest of the UK about NI at this point. Must really irritate them that what they signed up to... doesn't really care about them nor actually want them around anymore.
     
  2. dowie

    Caporegime

    Joined: Jan 29, 2008

    Posts: 43,913

    Well they can leave if they want... or perhaps get their act together and get their assembly back up and running.

    I mean they had a deadline, they failed to meet it and so they're now got abortion... unlucky bigots. Why do you post as though that's a bad thing?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-50115449
     
  3. StriderX

    Capodecina

    Joined: Mar 18, 2008

    Posts: 22,423

    Well obviously, but the DUP and their Ulster 'totally not terrorist' backers have had this stupid idea in their heads for well centuries that Britain would always back them. It's just amusing to have your hero punch you in the face (twice for social norms they disagree with and thirdly a brexit deal that abandons them), but they seem to keep coming back as they have nothing else, as otherwise they lose all credibility.

    It's a bit sad i guess, but they brought this on themselves.
     
  4. Evangelion

    Capodecina

    Joined: Dec 29, 2007

    Posts: 23,596

    Location: Adelaide, South Australia

    [​IMG]
     
  5. Murphy

    Mobster

    Joined: Sep 16, 2018

    Posts: 3,036

    So with Boris' insistence that he can get a trade deal with the EU within, what is it, 7-8 months, isn't he falling into the same trap may fell into?

    If you're trying to get a good deal isn't letting the person your negotiating with know you're on the clock a bad thing to do, isn't he about to do exactly what May did and starting the clock running on himself meaning the EU can basically dictate the terms like they did with the WA?
     
  6. Greebo

    Caporegime

    Joined: Jan 20, 2005

    Posts: 32,491

    Location: Co Durham

    He knows he cant get it done in 7-8 months,. Hes only setting that deadline so they can fail, blame it on the EU and then leave with no deal which is what a lot of the current bunch of Tories wanted all along.
     
  7. StriderX

    Capodecina

    Joined: Mar 18, 2008

    Posts: 22,423

    I'm just wondering whether or not what remains of the party moderates who have microscopic spines can countenance literally voting for no deal, the humourous thing is that it will be due to Tory Remainers (10-20% seemingly) voting for it, i imagine if they voted more so for a hung parliament, they could avoid owning this mess.

    Mind you they were also the most fervent in saying Johnson would never get anywhere near leadership of the party, it seems they've spent the last few months locking away their inner angels to justify voting him in.
     
  8. Murphy

    Mobster

    Joined: Sep 16, 2018

    Posts: 3,036

    You think he cares about the moderates in his own party, as he keeps saying he just want's to get Brexit done and to him that simply involves passing his WA, he probably doesn't care much about what happens after that as once that's passed into law parliament will left with token roles in what happens next, if they're luck they may get to rubber stamp whatever trade deals Boris puts before them but other than that most things will be in the hands of the executive.
     
  9. Schlong&Stable

    Mobster

    Joined: Apr 27, 2013

    Posts: 4,063

    Whatever happens next, BoJo is in a better position than May at least. She made a huge blunder invoking Article 50 and then holding an election that led to a hung parliament. This massively weakened the UK negotiating position whilst strengthening the EU position. She ended up in such a domestic quagmire than progress in talks never really had much momentum and the deal she got greatly favoured the EU.

    If BoJo gets a Tory majority, he'll have power to push through quickly with a deal, because frankly the EU don't want protracted negotiations with so much uncertainty over Germany's economy. If we get another hung parliament, we'll remain where we are and he can blame Labour for continuing to block progress.
     
  10. Murphy

    Mobster

    Joined: Sep 16, 2018

    Posts: 3,036

    You do know Boris' deal favors the EU even more, right? His deal was rejected by May months ago.

    And like i said if May triggering A50 weakened her hand by setting a two year clock ticking then what does setting a 7-8 month clock ticking do? Boris is basically repeating May's mistakes only this time he's he's making a mess of the mess by claiming he won't extend his WA and manage to get a trade deal in a matter of months.

    And i can't believe even after all this time people still believe the myth that they need us more than we need them.
     
  11. Mr C

    Hitman

    Joined: Sep 8, 2006

    Posts: 647

    I think if the inevitability of a Tory victory is coming, although i am not really sure how its already ordained as i'm still not quite sure the polls are correct based on the previous elections, Labour always sees a massive surge from the polls on the day.

    We need to contemplate the possibility of a few further outcomes:

    Firstly we can rightly assume that Bojo's deal will pass. The size of the majority will define the amendments made (if any). More importantly is what follows, every expert is in agreement with this, and has been since the beginning, the first phase (which has took us over three years) is the EASY part, negotiating a (Comprehensive) trade deal with the EU will take a minimum 5 years. If something is completed within one year it will only form possibly even the tiniest minority of trade (such as maybe a handful of key sectors, nuclear/medicine etc..).

    What we are more likely to see is a huge amount of lobbying from corporations on all merits of the deal (from both sides) and let us not forget the famous Wallonians. The first part of the deal only needed to be accepted by the EU 27, this next part needs to be agreed and ratified by all parliaments of which anything favourable towards the UK (e.g. increased fishing rights) is likely to be immediately vetoed by Spain and France.

    So what will happen? Since Boris proclaims (much like May did) that Dec 2020 is the end of the transition period (deal or no deal) we are going to be left again with a cliff edge no deal. Unlike this time we will not have the ability to avoid it by retracting article 50.

    Where a deal was easy to agree with the EU and hard for our parliament to pass it will be the opposite this time and the EU (in this case all it takes is a single parliament and the UK crashing out might not even have any adverse effects on some minor area) will happily watch us crash and burn if we do not negotiate in good faith (it is only the retraction of article 50 and remaining a thorn in the current EU establishment that is letting them treat us with some level of respect). Will the remaining conservatives truly face down a no deal brexit to save Boris or will the votes of no confidence appear very quickly when it shows the UK is about to cause catastrophic damage to its economy.

    In short a Tory victory on Thursday will result in either:

    A no-deal brexit (destruction of the Tory party, long term)
    Vote of no confidence, an extension, another election (2021).
    Mass extensions and 5 years of limbo until another government is formed and a potential re-entry into a EU mechanism or EFTA is agreed.

    There are also other side issues involved in the above such as the separation of NI and the rest of UK and potential unrest in Scotland (Could be Hong Kong level of violence) if they feel aggrieved enough to be dragged towards no-deal with no hope of independence (i don't imagine the Conservatives will offer the SNP another referendum)

    The above is in no way an endorsement to vote against the Conservatives (or for any other party) on Thursday, it is just a reflection of the likeliest events to follow, much like everyone was told in the last election that this outcome (Extensions and another election) was the most likely when the Tories failed to get a majority (although some had ideas that such a small majority from the last election would lead to greater compromise, it was evident it didn't happen).

    I expect if there is a Tory majority this week, that by December 2020 we will be staring at another potential election (this time the Tories won't be facing Corbyn either) and with all the moderates expelled from the party the Conservative party could be looking at another decade of being the opposition (the Tony Blair years).

    Isn't it ironic that the whole idea of the referendum was to finally heal the rift in the Conservative party yet it seems destined that it is only going to repeat history (Major) again.
     
  12. StriderX

    Capodecina

    Joined: Mar 18, 2008

    Posts: 22,423

    Something anyone should have been immediately frightened by was Verhofstadts gleefulness after the deal they had envisioned at the beginning was finally acceptable to Brexiteers, why is he happy when he's clearly a very intelligent person, he must know what a hard-Brexit leadership would do and clearly he and the EU parliament group he's part of regarding Brexit actually desires it.

    Yet somehow we have the leverage? Laughable, we'll have lost it by leaving and that was the plan all along by Eurocrats as it gives them a chance to strengthen the EU at the cost of Britain, an agitating member by all accounts who was far too connected to the US. We shall see if it works out for us, but right now I just see a loser running head-strong into a losing situation as if it's the best thing since losing our empire in WW2 and losing status in Suez, we just seem to repeat it constantly and yet somehow pretend we're important.

    We're literally just an island of consumers, tariffs or not, the EU simply doesn't give a **** as it will inherently work out for them in the long term. With no leverage as a member, they can finally go full force.
     
  13. Caracus2k

    Soldato

    Joined: Jan 27, 2009

    Posts: 5,120

    I think you might be onto something Evangelion is an anagram of …..

    'Nag Evil One' and 'Alone given'
     
  14. Freakbro

    Capodecina

    Joined: Jul 29, 2010

    Posts: 15,643

    Location: Lincs

    We won't be leaving with No Deal, we weren't going to at the end of the 2 yr A50 negotiations, we won't at the end of the transition....because the transition period will just keep getting extended until the FTA is in place.
     
  15. Greebo

    Caporegime

    Joined: Jan 20, 2005

    Posts: 32,491

    Location: Co Durham

    I dont think they will extend it. It would be too embarrassing for them. Better to leave at end of 2020 with no deal and then get on with signing TTIP with the USA ASAP.
     
  16. Entai

    Capo Crimine

    Joined: Feb 28, 2004

    Posts: 72,195


    Not at all.

    The problem arises because the transition is due to end in December 2020, which most people know.


    However a lot do not know that the Withdrawal Agreement contains an option for the UK and EU to agree, by July, to extend the transition once for up to two years.

    SO if say the Conservatives get in, and do not agree an extension by July, and cannot get a FTA agreed by December we are out with no deal.

    EVEN if they do agree ONE extension, it is only one and cannot be further extended as the withdrawal agreement will have already been finalised and cannot be re opened once it has been through Parliament after the election.
     
  17. Freakbro

    Capodecina

    Joined: Jul 29, 2010

    Posts: 15,643

    Location: Lincs

    Yea, I knew all that

    I hadn't heard that before though, do you have any links? As yea, that does change my outlook a little

    I'm still with Portillo on this one (Conservative, Brexiteer) that no prime Minister would take us out on a No Deal, no matter what bluff and bluster they say, as it is far too damaging economically and would kill their leadership dead

    I'm interested to see where it says that, and if so, it just hampers us even more to accept a crappy FTA which isn't great for us, but is still going to be exponentially better than a No Deal.
     
  18. Murphy

    Mobster

    Joined: Sep 16, 2018

    Posts: 3,036

    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/brexit-deal-withdrawal-agreement
    Also https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit_withdrawal_agreement#Content_(2018_version)
    Referenced from this lame BBC video and an article in The Guardian.
     
  19. Mercenary Keyboard Warrior

    Capodecina

    Joined: Aug 4, 2007

    Posts: 10,002

    Location: Wilds of suffolk

    Can't see how it would be enforceable that its non extendable personally.

    The UK government can always overrule existing legislation, and the EU likewise. Assuming both parties decided to write and pass legislation to update and amend I struggle to see how anyone would have any challenge to a previous piece of legislation being enforecable over something specifically written to amend it.

    We know one government cannot bind a future one, and this specifically whats being done here in effect.
     
  20. Freakbro

    Capodecina

    Joined: Jul 29, 2010

    Posts: 15,643

    Location: Lincs

    @Murphy Cheers for that.

    I still think this can put as much pressure on either accepting a crappy FTA as crashing out with No Deal, or as MKW says it doesn't actually preclude further extensions being agreed upon as it is in neither sides interest for a No Deal.