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Brexit Discussion - The new thread

Discussion in 'Speaker's Corner' started by Feek, Sep 5, 2019.

  1. Minusorange

    Soldato

    Joined: Nov 25, 2005

    Posts: 5,035

    Can any one actually give an explanation of what exactly Boris means by "getting Brexit done by January 31st" I know he doesn't specify which year but I assume next month, and I assume it won't be us leaving by that day but at least formulating how we're going to leave in terms deal or no deal ?

    I just can't see how he can get it done in just over 40 days when the previous 3 years have been mixed delay & failure ? Does the majority in parliament now mean that whatever deal he comes up with will go through without any delays or objections or even deliberations ? Will it be the same deal we had previously ?
     
  2. Tinders

    Soldato

    Joined: Jul 1, 2003

    Posts: 5,045

    Location: There's a voice that keeps on calling me.

    Did we ever replace the industries we lost in the 70's and 80's? Mill towns in the north, steel towns, mining towns etc are still decimated.
     
  3. Concrete

    Wise Guy

    Joined: Jan 8, 2007

    Posts: 1,587

    Location: Barcelona

    I`d say you are sitting pretty, also going to be in an excellent spot to grab a bargin upgrade if you time it right.
     
  4. Purdy

    Capodecina

    Joined: Jan 4, 2011

    Posts: 22,927

    Odd given I replied to someone on the other end of the spectrum in the same breath as quoting yourself. (Funnily enough the one with the most volume I've noticed along side yourself)

    Its just a comment that make your posts come across snide and disingenous a lot of the time when as I said you've made interesting points and detract from them.
     
  5. Murphy

    Mobster

    Joined: Sep 16, 2018

    Posts: 3,397

    Do we apply the same logic to the super-rich leaving the country because they're asked to pay more in taxes?
     
  6. Purdy

    Capodecina

    Joined: Jan 4, 2011

    Posts: 22,927

    (Wrong thread)
     
    Last edited: Dec 13, 2019
  7. Irish_Tom

    Capodecina

    Joined: Oct 18, 2002

    Posts: 12,456

    He means we will get his WA through Parliament before the 31st January 2020.

    However, all that does is move us into the 'transition period' in which the future relationship (including free trade deal) has to be negotiated.

    The deadline for the transition period is the end of December 2020. The Conservatives have previously said that this date will not be extended, although there is the option to extend as long as we request the extension by 1st July. Assuming we don't extend, we will have a maximum of 11 months to complete all of the negotiations for the future relationship and FTA.

    If negotiations fail to reach a resolution by then, we will leave without a deal on 31st December 2020. Given that most FTAs take at least 5 years (but often longer) it seems optimistic at best to expect we could achieve an agreement within 11 months. However, the fact that we're already fully aligned with the EU in terms of standards etc. may help us here.

    This is why many are concerned that No Deal is still very much on the table (and some have suggested that this has actually been Johnson's end-game all along). All he has to do is delay or negotiate half-heartedly and we will crash out at the end of next year. No doubt Jonhson will pin the blame on 'the intransigent EU' and the Brexit faithful will lap it up.
     
  8. StriderX

    Capodecina

    Joined: Mar 18, 2008

    Posts: 24,416

    'Fully aligned' simply means no US trade deal, this is the problem with trying to play both of these economic powerhouses, if we fail to thread this needle, we'll be subservient to both.
     
  9. Minusorange

    Soldato

    Joined: Nov 25, 2005

    Posts: 5,035

    I guess the majority will not object to no deal if it happens making it no longer illegal like before right ?
     
  10. Irish_Tom

    Capodecina

    Joined: Oct 18, 2002

    Posts: 12,456

    Strider is correct, if we get an FTA with the EU, we're unlikely to get one with the US, if we get one with the US, we're unlikely to get one with China (and so on) which kind of makes a mockery of one of the primary arguments for Brexit — who could have guessed?

    Yep. Given that the Conservatives have such a big majority and (apparently) all of their candidates have signed up to Boris' plan, we're unlikely to see any/enough Tory rebels to force Boris' hand in asking for an extension either to the WA or the transition period so No Deal is a real possibility.
     
  11. mid_gen

    Sgarrista

    Joined: Dec 20, 2004

    Posts: 9,065

    On the contrary, I don't believe Johnson is really a passionate leaver, he just saw an opportunity to be PM and rolled the dice.

    Now his primary concern will be to be loved and feed his ego. He will likely tell the ERG to do one, and arrange a trade deal with the EU that is almost, but not quite, a customs union. The US trade deal will drag on for years and disappear from the news.As long as he can say Brexit Is Done, voters won't care, they'll juts be happy to not hear about it any more.
     
  12. Rroff

    Man of Honour

    Joined: Oct 13, 2006

    Posts: 66,967

    EDIT: This is nonsense really you can keep saying should have compromised on last deal to avoid a worse next one infinitely as a stick to beat people with - why should people compromise when a bad deal is on the table just because potentially things could end up worse? and what is so bad that we need to accept something like TM's deal in the first place rather than just revoke?

    This is why pro-leave often get so much stick there is nothing of substance and running away before you have to say anything that isn't just empty hand waving.
     
    Last edited: Dec 13, 2019
  13. Irish_Tom

    Capodecina

    Joined: Oct 18, 2002

    Posts: 12,456

    I guess we will find out in the coming year.

    I can’t say I’ve been entirely convinced by the Boris No Deal Conspiracy but he’s going to have to do some serious work to avoid it.
     
  14. dowie

    Caporegime

    Joined: Jan 29, 2008

    Posts: 46,037

    He’s definitely got scope for a softer Brexit though I doubt very much he’s headed towards an almost customs union. They were trying pretty hard to avoid that this May’s backstop with a default CU being unacceptable and causing his resignation. If he’s going softer then hopefully more like regulatory alignment/close to single market.

    I don't think a US trade deal will disappear at all, that and independent trade deals with other nations is part of the end goal for plenty of Brexiters and it is certainly something that has Trump's attention too (whether he survives is another matter though).

    Some people seem to have the notion that a deal with the EU will automatically block others, that doesn't have to be the case at all and is something they'll be rather keen to avoid.

    Frankly there has been a lot of utter BS re: people trying to second guess Boris as supposedly not negotiating a deal then supposedly wanting to trick everyone into no deal a few weeks back etc... when it seems pretty clear that he is pushing for a deal.
     
  15. mid_gen

    Sgarrista

    Joined: Dec 20, 2004

    Posts: 9,065

    Rubbish. He'll do exactly what he did with the withdrawal agreement, he'll roll over and concede to whatever the EU ask for, and claim it as great victory.
     
  16. Irish_Tom

    Capodecina

    Joined: Oct 18, 2002

    Posts: 12,456

    True, that’s certainly a possibility.
     
  17. StriderX

    Capodecina

    Joined: Mar 18, 2008

    Posts: 24,416

    If he tosses the fish to the Spanish, French or other Atlantic/North Sea countries, you can bet the Tories will be equally as abandoned in Scotland.
     
  18. Murphy

    Mobster

    Joined: Sep 16, 2018

    Posts: 3,397

    I think we've got even less time than that, i seem to remember something about the new EU parliament and/or commission not being formally sworn in for a few months, and there's things the UK parliament needs to do before his WA passes into law and comes into effect.
     
  19. Sheff

    Wise Guy

    Joined: Jun 16, 2008

    Posts: 1,003

    Location: Newton Abbot

    Depending on the complexity of the deal, it may require ratification by EU member states too.
     
  20. Kermit

    Mobster

    Joined: Oct 27, 2002

    Posts: 2,716

    Location: UK

    A FTA deal needn't take as long as many of you are suggesting, yes FTA often take 5-7 years but that's when the countries negotiating them are far apart in terms of current economies, rules and regulations. The UK and EU are currently fully aligned so as along as agreement on sticking to certain rules/regulations compatible with EU rules/regulations, it could be in theory be a simple exercise.

    Of course the problem is politicians are involved and EU likely doesn't want to bend over too quickly so it may take years :p