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Brexit Discussion - The new thread

Discussion in 'Speaker's Corner' started by Feek, Sep 5, 2019.

  1. garnett

    Soldato

    Joined: Mar 25, 2008

    Posts: 6,482

    It's almost like that renowned liar Trump lied and said whatever was needed to get the US better trading terms with UK and open up UK NHS markets for US pharma.

    If only Brexiteers could have been given some sort of clue about what trump was really trying to acheive ...

    [​IMG]

    Just the smallest hint...

    [​IMG]
     
  2. Kermit

    Mobster

    Joined: Oct 27, 2002

    Posts: 2,802

    Location: UK

    true

    No, I'm done with long posts, I've said plenty, hopefully opened up new avenues to discuss given the usual ones have been done to death and so I'm mostly out for at least a few weeks and will concentrate on my day job as economic advisor to George Soros ;)
     
  3. DarkHorizon472

    Mobster

    Joined: May 16, 2007

    Posts: 3,188

    That's a shame as it is key challenge for the UK and no one is giving the positive side, even Gove now says Brexit will be very costly :eek:
     
  4. Kermit

    Mobster

    Joined: Oct 27, 2002

    Posts: 2,802

    Location: UK

    We'll have to see in due course as its out of our hands now

    yay, I managed a short post
     
  5. Murphy

    Mobster

    Joined: Sep 16, 2018

    Posts: 4,350

    Yea and you voted based on one particular outcome that may never come true, and even if it did we could've simply left when or if it did, we could've reacted to the situation as it happened instead of trying to predict one of may possible futures, if you think economic forecasts are always wrong what's the chances that you've managed to predict one possible future that 10, 20, or 40 years away? Have you used more rigorous methods than those used for economic forecasts?
    (S)He can't, (s)he only seems capable of making predictions on what the EU will look like in 10, 20, 40 years from now. Economic forecasts, worthless. Forecasts for a post Brexit UK, who knows, we'll just have to wait and see. But the future of the EU, (s)he has that nailed down pat.
     
  6. garnett

    Soldato

    Joined: Mar 25, 2008

    Posts: 6,482

    Q: Were Brexiteers right, or right mugs to believe David Davis when he told them they'd get the "exact same benefits" after Brexit?

    A:

     
  7. NickK

    Capodecina

    Joined: Jan 13, 2003

    Posts: 18,630

  8. Murphy

    Mobster

    Joined: Sep 16, 2018

    Posts: 4,350

    It doesn't show non EU trade partners - imports and exports, it shows the margin of error in the reporting of non EU trade partners - imports and exports.
    As it talks about the margin of error between what the UK says it exports/imports from X country and what X country says it exports/imports to us you best not show it to Kermit though as if he finds out the two numbers don't exactly match he'll go around telling everyone the stuff we export/import doesn't exist. ;)
     
    Last edited: Feb 12, 2020
  9. Kermit

    Mobster

    Joined: Oct 27, 2002

    Posts: 2,802

    Location: UK

    You didn't read what I wrote it properly did you or perhaps the words where too complex for you.

    In simple terms I wrote there's lots of possibilities in 10,20,40 years time, some good, some so so, some bad and varying levels of in between. I opted to guard myself and my families from one of the possible worse scenarios. Get it, its a choice, odds differ and not really known but all possibilities non the less.
     
  10. Dj_Jestar

    Caporegime

    Joined: Oct 18, 2002

    Posts: 28,738

    Location: Back in East London

    And what makes you think leaving is guaranteed to be a better position? Has the penny dropped yet? Can you see the irony of your entire premise yet?
     
  11. Conscript

    Sgarrista

    Joined: Oct 18, 2004

    Posts: 9,442

    Location: Kent

    There's a slim chance my house might catch fire sometime in the next 50 years.
    Think I'll avoid that by going to live in a box, today.
     
  12. Steampunk

    Sgarrista

    Joined: Jun 1, 2013

    Posts: 7,747

    You need to learn the difference between "severity" and "likelihood". Did you guard your family against asteroid strike, zombie apocalypse, or alien invasion? These would be some of the worst future scenarios, but you don't invest effort in planning for them because they are unlikely.

    Instead, you should invest time in future scenarios that are less severe, but more likely, such as a strong economic downturn and general hardship caused by leaving the big, rich trading block on our doorstep, and dealing with going it alone in the world. That hardship isn't just increased prices and people losing their jobs, it's a general deterioration of society as crime goes up and services go down. The UK will become measurably a worse place to live, with worse prospects for it's citizens. There is no upside to leaving your larger social groups and going it alone where you have more competition and less help backing you up.

    As an aside, it's interesting that you talk about guarding your family. It's because we are safer in groups. Groups of people, communities, countries, and in the twenty-first century, economic blocks. By leaving the largest community we were a part of, we are making our future less certain, and less safe. People always do better in groups, otherwise you would cut your family loose and go it alone as you have voted for the UK to do.
     
  13. chroniclard

    Capodecina

    Joined: Apr 23, 2014

    Posts: 15,902

    Location: Hertfordshire

    Better odds of your house catching fire than any benefits of Brexit turning up. :D(or should that be :()
     
  14. Usher

    Mobster

    Joined: Dec 30, 2004

    Posts: 3,242

    Great post, I had to read it twice but your admitting remainers have given evidence to support their nonsense claims
     
  15. krooton

    Caporegime

    Joined: May 9, 2004

    Posts: 26,040

    Location: Leafy outskirts of London

    Nice try, but the claims are nonsense because of the lack of evidence.
     
  16. GordyR

    Soldato

    Joined: Dec 1, 2003

    Posts: 5,366

    Location: Essex

    It's a choice, but it's an irrational one. And I don't mean irrational in in the colloquial sense, I mean literally irrational.

    • Being members of the EU was a known quantity, because we were members of the EU.
    • Leaving the EU is an unknown quantity.
    Therefore, you chose to safeguard against an unlikely negative future, by embarking upon a course that has a likely negative future.

    How do we tell which one is likely or unlikely? Well we use evidence, logic and reasoning, in order to assign likelihood values to each possible outcome.

    When we do so, one course of action carries minimal risk, whereas the other carries with it great risk.

    Please refer to my post of reasoning an example of this:

    My post on deductive versus inductive reasoning

    Therefore, assuming that your aim is to protect the well-being of your country and by extension your family; then to choose to embrace the path that carries with it significantly greater risk, is an irrational decision; whether you like it or not.

    The only way any of the above would be any different at all, is if you had some good evidence to suggest that things would change for the worse in the future as EU members. But you've admitted that you haven't; and that you merely consider a negative outcome one possible future of many.

    So I'm sorry to say it, but like I said, that's objectively an irrational decision - This is why people have been asking you for something in support of your "negative EU future" claims; because without them, your position becomes an irrational one.

    This sentence makes no sense. I don't understand what you're trying to say here.

    The foundations of logic, scepticism and reason, demand that we reject all claims that have not been supported with evidence; until such time as they have been.

    If we did the reverse, and believed all possible claims, until such time as they have been proven incorrect, then we would end up believing in an infinite number of contradictory things, which is of course, totally absurd.
     
    Last edited: Feb 12, 2020
  17. Murphy

    Mobster

    Joined: Sep 16, 2018

    Posts: 4,350

    Nice words but nothing you said addresses the point i raised, that point being what's the chances that you've managed to predict one possible future that's 10, 20, or 40 years away? And if you've used more rigorous methods than those used for economic forecasts?

    Also why are you incapable of applying the same methods you used to reach that conclusion to what a post Brexit UK may look like?
     
    Last edited: Feb 12, 2020
  18. Usher

    Mobster

    Joined: Dec 30, 2004

    Posts: 3,242

    look at a couple of posts above, 'we are now at the the bottom for a trade deal with the US', 'shoppers are warned of price hikes and shortages for fruit & veg etc' is this evidence, facts? no, just predictions like everything else.
     
  19. GordyR

    Soldato

    Joined: Dec 1, 2003

    Posts: 5,366

    Location: Essex

    No, they're simply both examples of evidence in support of the claim that leaving the EU is likely to have a negative impact on the UK.

    • "We are now at the the bottom for a trade deal with the US" - With a population of only 65 million, we are less important and hold less economic negotiating leverage than a bloc with a population of 440 million. Therefore we are less important to the US, than the EU, in terms of trade. Fact.
    • "Shoppers are warned of price hikes and shortages for fruit & veg etc" - The government have finally been honest and have just announced that there will be checks and friction at our borders. The result of that is price hikes on imported goods. That's not a prediction; trade friction and import tariffs cost businesses money, and this increase in costs gets passed down onto consumers; in exactly the same way as it did when Sterling heavily devalued back in 2016, and suppliers currency hedges ran out. Fact.

    Think of it this way:

    • If I take £20 out of your wallet, is it a prediction to claim that you will be £20 poorer as a result?
    • If I chop off your legs with an axe, is it a prediction to claim that you will find walking more difficult in the future?
    • If I remove the wheels from your car, is it a prediction to claim that you will not be able to drive as quickly as you did before?

    Of course not, because we fully understand cause and effect, and the mechanisms involved in each example; just as we do in the first two.
     
    Last edited: Feb 12, 2020
  20. Hagar

    Sgarrista

    Joined: Mar 1, 2010

    Posts: 8,513

    Location: Prev. Nkata Cheshire

    Meanwhile, I'm sure I heard a discussion on radio about a shortage of vets to check meat in the country of origin for pre-prepared sandwich imports. Importing millions of pre-prepared sandwiches in single use plastic cases not including for road and sea transport. Just how freaking ridiculous is this? Now that is globalisation gone mad. I do not give a fig if that business and those like it go down a hole. I am sure that Greta would be on side as well.

    For the same or a little more money, a freshly made sandwich made in a local sandwich shop or even a little preparation and make your own is far more healthy, enviromentally aware and overall better for you and the planet. Also less likely to spread common viruses.

    Not really Brexit but allied to the discussion
     
    Last edited: Feb 12, 2020