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Brexit Discussion - The new thread

Discussion in 'Speaker's Corner' started by Feek, Sep 5, 2019.

  1. Mr C

    Hitman

    Joined: Sep 8, 2006

    Posts: 799

    I hate to jump in with the rest of everyone else here, but i am interested in:

    What are the odds (or your perceived version of these odds) of these scenarios happening in the future? I'm not asking for a conceptual economic forecast of statistical probabilities, more of a "do you feel that it is more likely that". From what i can gather you feel it is more likely that the EU will suffer some form of mortal blow at an unspecified point in the future (am i correct?)

    Disregarding the probabilities of such scenarios, i want to ask this. If such a thing is inevitable (you can pick whichever scenario you believe most likely to cause the demise of the EU), how does the UK no longer being in the EU differ (and thereby lessen the impact of the scenario) from the status quo (remaining in the EU).
     
  2. VincentHanna

    Capodecina

    Joined: Jul 30, 2013

    Posts: 21,249

    Particularly when we didn't use the same currency.
     
  3. Murphy

    Mobster

    Joined: Sep 16, 2018

    Posts: 4,344

    @nkata: Agreed, apologies for not being more precise people keep distracting me by expecting me to do some work. :(
    If you still have hair you're not doing it right. ;)

    @Kermit: Serious question as I'm getting the feeling there's some crossed wires, but using your own words how would you describe a forecast and the principals or methods of forecasting?
     
    Last edited: Feb 12, 2020
  4. Steampunk

    Sgarrista

    Joined: Jun 1, 2013

    Posts: 7,746

    You're not looking at evidence and forecasts and seeing where they lead you. You're cherry-picking, strawmanning and pretty much making stuff up when it suits you in order to justify your emotion-led opinions. You're not reaching conclusions based on evidence, you're choosing made up "evidence" that matches what you've already decided.
     
  5. Btone

    Wise Guy

    Joined: Jan 23, 2003

    Posts: 1,183

    Location: N.I.

    but it just not the lorry driver that will have extra cost

    off the top of my head there is

    the primary producer
    the primary processor
    the import/exporter
    the haulage
    the retailer
    ??
    each one having to keep records and pay/claim back what ever duties

    then we have 2 taxmen/systems to deal with, and with that accountants that can deal with 2 different tax systems

    and the further we move from EU rules the more paper work will be need to comply with said rules
     
  6. Kermit

    Mobster

    Joined: Oct 27, 2002

    Posts: 2,802

    Location: UK

    There's got to be crossed wires as this is so frustrating that none of you (who all happen to be remainers btw) understand the concept of different as yet undetermined future outcomes?

    Possible doesn't mean something will happen although it equally is doesn't rule it out either.

    In 2000 no one would have forecast Trump would be elected US president in 2016 although it was possible. Its also possible for any of 300 million native US citizens to be President. 16 years later despite no one forecasting Trump would one day be POUS, he was elected even though most people in 2000 if asked would have said without much consideration it would be virtually impossible for that narcissistic, misogynist failed business man to ever be elected POUS

    So its possible any of the 3 below of an almost infinite amount of other possibilities to play out given you can add in or remove any of the macro economic/social/political aspects in these 3 limited examples

    a) the EU to end in 40 years time as a perfect utopian society, all individuals have the levels of freedom as today and one beautiful United States of Europe
    b) The EU to change little over the next 40 years (stagnate, no new treaties etc) with the level of co-operation/integration as is today
    c) The EU to keep headed in the same general direction for the next 40 years as the last 40 years, this may end up a but like a) with lots more integration possible to the same USoE and no national governments but this could also lead to more and more EU nationals becoming disillusioned with the EU controlling ever more aspects of their life and not being happy with that fact.

    C continued.... and rather than being independent as before in much the same way as apparently ~50% of Scotts apparent aren't happy that the UK/England controls too many aspects of their lives, similar number in the UK not happy with current levels of EU integration controlling them, 50% of Catalonian's not happy to have many aspects of their lives governed from Madrid and from history the scramble after the Soviet collapse of the former states of the USSR (Georgia, Ukraine etc) and former puppet states (East Germany, Hungary etc) to get out and gain their independence.

    The last example you may think is a bit extreme as communism sucks and its its little wonder those nations left as soon as it was possible but the former examples of democratic countries (Scotland, Spain) demonstrate the lust for independence also exists in relatively free and wealthy nations and Brexit is possibly the first of a few nations that will want out as integration towards a federal Europe gets more entrenched and takes over more aspects of peoples lives over the next 40 years.

    So I'm not picking c) as the future but you can't rule it out just as you can't rule in a) being the future. Nothing is certain so you have too look back for past trajectories and past examples and have a think, you may be wrong, I may be wrong, unlikely anyone will be bang on the money but you still need to THINK and make your own decision. If you've done that and think a) is most likely, then thats fine, I respect your opinion as long as you've considered as much as you can and actually thought about it. I think it maybe a mix of a) and c) or closer to c) but I'm not certain but think a) is wishful thinking as no one is ever happy with their lot and it would be horrible to be an EU citizen if it turned out closer to C and you had little freedom or independence
     
    Last edited: Feb 12, 2020
  7. redeye

    Gangster

    Joined: Oct 18, 2002

    Posts: 433

    Location: Leipzig, Germany

    It's not just the cost of additional paperwork and some time a lorry driver is kept waiting. Current customs infrastructure at key ports like Dover and Folkstone only have space for x number of vehicles. Many of these vehicles are part of a just in time supply chain process. Sometimes that's food, sometimes its goods for factories. If you increase the time it takes for checks at a border point, you need to increase the capacity. This means more staff and a vast amount more space. Where are all of these extra staff going to come from? Have they started training them yet? The answer to capacity is apparently the M20 and an airfield. Every logistics expert I have spoken to, and I include myself in this, says it's a receipe for disaster.

    Just in time is dead with any additional customs checks. Companies will then have to start buying up more warehouses and more staff which equals more costs. Why if you were a business that is not owned by a UK entiity would you stay in the UK? It's makes no financial sense. And that's all most decent sizes companies think of, because they have owners and shareholders. Build your product in mainland Europe and ship it to the UK. Then you lose not only the staff from that company, you lose any UK suppliers to them too.


    Up until now, if you're an SMB or even a large company, you get an order for a product from the EU, you can book the shipment with DHL or UPS or whoever and it's done. If it's a pallet, same thing doesn't take too long to book. Paperwork is minimal.
    If you need to ship it to a country outside of the EU you need a customs broker, unless you are big enough and do it yourself. DHL / UPS etc offer this service of course BUT it takes more time. You need commercial invoices with commodity codes. You sometimes need export licenses or import licenses. All of this adds costs, and means companies need more staff to do the work. Some companies won't be able to bear the costs or actually understand it. Others will of course be fine. But it depends what type of business you want operating in the UK in the future.

    This stuff is incredibly simple to those in the industry. The fact the govenment cannot see this is just completely and utterly insane. Going for the hardest of Brexit's in the shortest timescale, I just don't get it. I never did, but taking this route is just crazy.
     
    Last edited: Feb 12, 2020
  8. Mr Jack

    Capodecina

    Joined: May 19, 2004

    Posts: 19,096

    Location: Nordfriesland, Germany

    So you voted for the 100% certainty of reduced individual freedom - the lost of the right to live, work, get educated, etc. in over 30 countries - not just for yourself but for all of your countrymen in order to avoid a fantasy version of the future in which people lose freedom.

    Yeah, totally rational :rolleyes:
     
    Last edited: Feb 12, 2020
  9. D.P.

    Caporegime

    Joined: Oct 18, 2002

    Posts: 30,785

    so to summarize you have made a forecast of multiple different outcomes that are all possible but you have assigned them different probabilities. Moreover you have extrapolated the trend in the data from the last 40 years to make a prediction that one of your forecasted possibilities is more likely than others.

    yet you think you aren't making forecasts because you are forecasts multiple outcomes with different probabilities, which is exactly what any real world forecast is.
     
  10. Kermit

    Mobster

    Joined: Oct 27, 2002

    Posts: 2,802

    Location: UK

    Your either too stupid or too self righteous to warrant a proper reply.

    Try quote where I stated "100% lack of freedom" IN CONTEXT
     
  11. Kermit

    Mobster

    Joined: Oct 27, 2002

    Posts: 2,802

    Location: UK

    I didn't realise the definition of "summarise" included changing what I type to mean the opposite or twisting the words, I assigned no odds or percentages to any :rolleyes:

    Key parts of that highlighted for you, were did I actually make a prediction, I stated possibilities (for which you now have the definition or can google it) some are more likely than others but there's plenty of other possibilities than the a) to c) examples.
     
  12. garnett

    Soldato

    Joined: Mar 25, 2008

    Posts: 6,469

    So, we've established that the Dunning-Kruger effect is prevalent in male Brexiteers.

    You then posted a series of posts that read like a textbook example of the effect in action.

    The D-K effect operates such that sufferers are not aware they are victims of it.

    You steadfastly refuse to acknowledge the chance this could be the case - in a way that could be considered "closed-minded" while accusing others of being close-minded, and against a backdrop where "In terms of psychology, Openness is by far the strongest predictor, and Brexiteers were found to be considerably more closed-minded."

    ... Which brings us back to the D-K effect and circumstances where someone wouldn't know when they're overestimating themselves in a certain trait - such as open-mindedness.

    And... You start your post with" Not at all" when I think you mean the complete opposite - "Yes, many" or something similar - yes? You're refuting the assertion your approach to Brexit reads like a Project Fear on acid...

    And yet then insist we entertain your analogy about staying in the EU being akin to playing Russian Roulette:-
    ... You seem utterly terrified of many highly unlikely future events!
     
  13. DarkHorizon472

    Mobster

    Joined: May 16, 2007

    Posts: 3,188

    A better reply would be to move on and explain the positives of Brexit now we have left the EU ?

    Plenty on here have given their views on the positives of being in the EU but no one has yet explained the positives of brexit except to say they believe it would be a good idea but can't explain why or how not just solve but get a benefit from the problems people have listed on here Brexit creates ;)
     
  14. Mercenary Keyboard Warrior

    Capodecina

    Joined: Aug 4, 2007

    Posts: 10,479

    Location: Wilds of suffolk

    As an importer/exporter if the ex EU functions anything like the outside the EU now there is a hell of a lot more work to be done than simply turning up with a piece of extra paper.

    Being able to produce that paper itself can be highly time consuming. Some things that may be required (but not limited to)
    Health certs
    Regulatory checks

    Then you have the actual paperwork, we have been close enough to the EU now that most people have no concept of an export expert. These people help you get your paperwork in order, so that its almost guaranteed you will pass customs checks.
    Its by means a certainty unless you know exactly what your exporting. The worst cases can end up where you just give up and ask the customs to dispose of your goods. It happens more with perishable items as what may have caused it to get snagged at one point then gets superceded with minimum dates on shelf life and that sort of thing.

    The best assumption we can make is that we function like Switzerland. If so there are multiple places and pieces of paperwork, its starts with being allowed to export. Many people don't even recognise this step exists.
    In order to be able to do this you need to be able to correctly complete the paperwork, and most people dont havethe technical knowledge, if the only export the same item over and over they will find that easier, but with freight normally being pre cleared (ie most of the transaction takes place in the sending country) the friction at the actual border should be quite low, assuming everything is in order. Turning up at a border with incorrect paperwork is not likely to be a short delay, more likely to be a turn around and go back (unless we choose to ignore border security of course and just wave everything through). The task of getting the paperwork in order and logged is done by a specialist and we plainly dont have enough, there will be delays in getting this sorted (both here and in the EU), these places will likely get swamped and delays will happen at that point. Drivers will get stuck there and bills will go up.
     
  15. TJM

    Wise Guy

    Joined: Jun 10, 2007

    Posts: 2,379

    Here's an informative Twitter thread: https://twitter.com/donnyc1975/status/1227144936434405376

    Hard borders increase costs and delays. If a HGV driver hits Calais at 5.01pm on Friday with incomplete papers and the trader's office is shut until 9.00am on Monday, it'll slap on more than 48 hours of extra operating costs (or the driver can abandon the journey). This will happen all the time and there is no way to avoid it since SMEs can't operate 24/7.
     
  16. Kermit

    Mobster

    Joined: Oct 27, 2002

    Posts: 2,802

    Location: UK

    you've established no such thing, what are you a psychologist? do you know me?

    Your the worst low balling rem0aner* poster in this thread, added to ignore and this time its staying on

    & I usually don't resort to the term ******** as just like Brexiteer, its derogatory to both sides views and doesn't help, Remainer and Leaver are better but in your case, I'll make an exception.

    Admins, surely if your going to blank out Rem0aner with *******, be equal about it and do the same for Brexiteer. Or better still replace both words with remainer and leaver
     
    Last edited: Feb 12, 2020
  17. Mercenary Keyboard Warrior

    Capodecina

    Joined: Aug 4, 2007

    Posts: 10,479

    Location: Wilds of suffolk

  18. Kermit

    Mobster

    Joined: Oct 27, 2002

    Posts: 2,802

    Location: UK

    the positives are we're NOT IN IT anymore so we don't have to consider the possibilities ;)
     
  19. D.P.

    Caporegime

    Joined: Oct 18, 2002

    Posts: 30,785


    that is a forecast.you have forecasted different possibilities and know your forecast is incomplete
     
  20. GordyR

    Soldato

    Joined: Dec 1, 2003

    Posts: 5,366

    Location: Essex

    This has become probably the single most astonishing breakdown of logic and reason I’ve ever seen on a public forum.

    My previous post, that attempted to highlight and deal with some of the root issues on display here, has been ignored; which is a shame.

    I really don’t think there’s anywhere left any of us can go with this, because whatever we try will always require a basic understanding of the principles of logic and reason.

    If they’re simply not there, then we cannot expect a lightbulb moment; just more excruciating examples of fallacious reasoning and logically invalid or unsound arguments.