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Brexit Discussion - The new thread

Discussion in 'Speaker's Corner' started by Feek, Sep 5, 2019.

  1. Kermit

    Mobster

    Joined: Oct 27, 2002

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    Location: UK

    Good night & tomorrow I'll post less if at all so you can all have the day off
     
    Last edited: Feb 12, 2020
  2. D.P.

    Caporegime

    Joined: Oct 18, 2002

    Posts: 30,785


    you are completely and absolutely wrong. you really need to start reading more and perhaps taking some evening classes on any topic before proclaiminng you had any remotely intelligent reason for voting to leave the EU .

    I really dont intend this to be insulting. No everyone received the same education, had a supportive environment growing up to nurture the acquisition of knowledge. and above all it is very easy to come to false conclusions, not understand the meaning of a word, or struggle with the nuances of a language.


    To put it simply, you can trivial calculate the probability of winning the lottery. It certainly isn't probable you will win. You can even make a forecast of your predicted winnings given how many tickets you have and the lottery pot size.
     
  3. DarkHorizon472

    Mobster

    Joined: May 16, 2007

    Posts: 3,188

    We've left get over it, move in to the future :)

    Do you not know any Brexit positives :eek: , you need to believe more ;)
     
  4. Kermit

    Mobster

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    Location: UK

    Sorry but your basing the above on a small excerpt below you quoted from a much longer post?

    Thats bugger all context to work with and try understand your issue, its not me whose struggling with education here unless your picking up on a missed word. You do realise I've probably replied to 10 or so different people in this thread today, lost track of how many actual posts and written some quite long posts to try get the a concept across and if your quote and accusation of my education is really down to a missed word, then I don't know how much lower you can go to try to belittle me.

    PS you missed out a 't' on the end of 'No' and spelt proclaiming incorrectly ;)
     
    Last edited: Feb 12, 2020
  5. D.P.

    Caporegime

    Joined: Oct 18, 2002

    Posts: 30,785


    no!, it might be a very good forecast with 1% chance of snow. What defines the forecast as good is if it is accurate. so if snow is forecast with a 1% chance, then in 100 occasions you make this forecast then it should snow 1% of the time. I do this for a living (not weather, but making predictions)


    what if i could predict, i.e. forecast, that you have a 1% probability of dying if you got the Corona virus. would you say that forecast is not very good? but what is that is the actually probability? The only thing that matters is accuracy.


    you made a forecast that included multiple possibilities with different probabilities of occurrence. The fact that probabilities were low is meaningless, you made a forecast. Not only that, but your most feared possibility used the most common and well know and simplest forecasting method - extrapolation of a trend.


    beyond all that you are admitting to have voted brexit due a very low probability of an event possibly happening. How can that not sound bat **** crazy to you?

    if you admit that you had a fear that your perceived negative prediction would come true, that an EU superstate would form, then we absolutely will accept that as an opinion that was logical to you with the information you believed in, and then we can move on to why that reasoning was flawed and the choice to knowingly damaging the UK in the short term vs the remote possibility of damage in the distant future is not particularly sound reasoning..
     
    Last edited: Feb 12, 2020
  6. Kermit

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    Plenty but I'm not posting any more on here as its wastes my time and you & your legion of sheep will only go out of your way bemoan them
     
  7. Dj_Jestar

    Caporegime

    Joined: Oct 18, 2002

    Posts: 28,738

    Location: Back in East London

    "any more"

    Lol. You've not posted any at all.
     
  8. D.P.

    Caporegime

    Joined: Oct 18, 2002

    Posts: 30,785

    Look, I understand you are posting to many different people and I give you plenty of credit for trying. On the whole, your posts seem to have more honesty than many Brexit voters but that doesn't mean we can gloss over the glaring errors in your reasoning and your repeated failure to understand some basic words.

    Probable and probability are not the same thing. Probability can be anything, including highly improbable events. E.g., what is the probability we will die by way of a giant asteroid impact tomorrow?
    https://interestingengineering.com/...of-a-huge-civilization-ending-asteroid-impact


    That is a probability, a very small probability, a prediction, and a forecast of future asteroid impact events.It is one possible future outcome. Listing possible future outcomes is a forecast.


    It is a remote *possibility* of happening, it certainly isn't *probable*, but it does have a defined *probability* == 0.000001%

    Nitpicking spelling when I am typing on a phone after 5 strong Belgian beers is not helping your case.
     
  9. Kermit

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    OMG I cannot believe your still lost on this.

    yes in your above example if you are able to calculate (and thats not a given) a 1% chance of dying if you caught the Corona virus, then thats a forecast. I can't give you the probability your asking for as I haven't done the maths (if maths can be used in the example) but its your forecast so I'm not going to speculate if your 1% is right or wrong.

    This is the issue, I didn't call it a forecast, you did. How can I or you (in this case) term it a forecast if there's 3 examples and I stated the actual range of possibilities is almost infinite?

    A forecast is a single prediction, not a lot of predictions with different outcomes. That would be like (back to the weather) the weather forecaster saying "its going to snow tomorrow and be -5C" then following it up to the same audience, in the same region with "its also going to be a heatwave tomorrow, clear blue skies and temperatures in the 30Cs"

    A forecast is a single thing not lots of differencing and often opposing possibilities as per examples a, b and c
     
  10. Mr Jack

    Capodecina

    Joined: May 19, 2004

    Posts: 19,096

    Location: Nordfriesland, Germany

    Proper weather forecasts are a set of predictions with different outcomes, although the only part of that usually makes it through to forecasts aimed at the consumer market is the "chance of rain", which is precisely what you're talking about: one event (rain) predicted with probability X% and the opposite event (no rain) predicted with probability (100-X)%.
     
  11. Kermit

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    I tried a few, you & others put your fingers in your ears, turned off your brains and don't give them a reasonable chance of debate instead focusing on stupid things like the definitions of the words forecast, possibility and probability, twisting my words, quoting out of context, ignoring the parts you'd prefer not to tackle the list is endless so no I won't post any more and I'm off to bed and will try refrain from any more responses, my words are down, I stand by them all (except those where I have admitted when I made mistake eg Brexiteer).

    This thread may however make good reading in 5-40 years time assuming the forum is still going and its not archived into oblivion
     
  12. Kermit

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    https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/forecast

    two key areas highlighted in bold

    a = singular, a statement, not a set of statements
    judged likely to happen = this like the 'a' is a singular, you can't have multiple statements (eg my a to c examples out of 1000's I could have typed which I termed possibilities) which have different outcomes often opposing each other and state they are all likely to happen, its not possible for them all to occur

    So don't call what I typed forecasts again!

    Better luck next time trying to catch me out :p
     
  13. Kermit

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    I don't think I stated they were the same thing?

    In any case if I did quote me where I did it and I'll check the context but I'm fairly sure I've stuck almost 100% to the words possibility or possibilities with my forecasts posts

    only joking with the forecast word there which I'm 100% I haven't used except with the definition responses although people keep calling what I typed forecasts but see above post for my response to that. Its not nice being accused of being a forecaster like Nostradamus when I know the word and haven't used it, its almost like people are trying to twist what I say ;)
     
    Last edited: Feb 12, 2020
  14. Dj_Jestar

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    Location: Back in East London

    Sure. If that's how you need to rationalise having your (lack of) supporting evidence scrutinised, you do you.
     
  15. Kermit

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    or twisted or interpreted (usually deliberately) incorrectly. See definitions example on my last two posts on how remainers seek to twist things
     
  16. Dj_Jestar

    Caporegime

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    Location: Back in East London

    A lot of tar on that brush you got there. A lot of salt, too.
     
  17. Kermit

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    Location: UK

    what? :confused:

    Typical none answer when you can't refute my last reply to you.
     
  18. GordyR

    Soldato

    Joined: Dec 1, 2003

    Posts: 5,366

    Location: Essex

    As D.P said; you would have literally forecast a 1% chance for snow.

    The moment you predict or estimate the future in any way, you are forecasting.

    For the sake of my own sanity I'm trying not to continue posting right now, but Kermit; you're simply wrong.

    Incorrect. Almost all actual forecasts contain a range of likely outcomes and offer a statistical margin for error. The aim of a forecast is to determine the most likely outcome based upon known data and historical trends.

    This is why all Brexit forecasts offer a range of possible outcomes that depend upon on our future trade relationship with the EU.

    Soft Brexit: -2%
    Medium Brexit: -5%
    Hard Brexit: -9%

    Not it's not. I'm purposefully going to try and explain this in non statistical/mathematical terms.

    A weather forecast will have calculated a likely range for the temperature tomorrow, based upon known data and historical trends (such as what the temperature has been for the last few days).

    What the model spits out can be considered a cone of uncertainty. The most likely temperature might be 7.5 degrees, with the upper likely limit of uncertainty being 10 degrees, and the lower likely limit being 5 degrees.

    The cone is a spectrum of probability, ranging from the middle (7.5) to the outer edges; from the most likely to the slightly less likely. Once we look outside of that cone (above 10 degrees or less than 5 degrees) then the probability drops off dramatically; so much so that we consider those potential outcomes to be highly unlikely, and therefore not worth consideration in our decision making.

    Very occasionally the temperature will fall outside of the forecast cone; but 99%+ of the time it sits somewhere within the likely range.

    Anyway, none of this addresses the root issues in your reasoning that has led to you forming logically inconsistent and contradictory arguments here this evening.

    I therefore really think it would help if you took the time to go back and read my post, because I honestly tried to highlight and address some of those inconsistencies and contradictions.

    Remember, as soon as an argument can be demonstrated to be logically inconsistent or contradictory, then it has failed and should be dropped.
     
    Last edited: Feb 13, 2020
  19. Kermit

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    yes sorry, typed that one too fast and think it was about going home time from 'working', the other one with 25C temps and also snow was better as two conflicting things and a forecast is a singular proposition and shouldn't conflict itself or offer conflicting propositions.

    See above, I haven't used the word forecast or predict as both terms convey a certain level of certainty. I'll perhaps go over the rest of you earlier post if you can possibly check, read and understand what a forecast is, its a single summation not unlike your posts re economy and not a group of differing possibilities like mine.

    Example you haven't forecasted that the UK economy will be both BETTER and WORSE, you've stuck to a single summary which is WORSE and reasons for that so yours is indeed a forecast.

    I haven't forecast as I've only offered possibilities and only 3 quick off the top of my head examples out of litterally 1000's. I've also attached no probability to any of them although I have stated I don't think unions/federations of nations tend to work out well long term but I haven't put a % figure on that being the case with the EU although the figure is 100% for the USSR and its former republics as thats an historic fact. If you or anyone else want to put the EU as not working out that at 0% thats fine but I can tell you now its not 0% although it could be anywhere from 0.1% to a lot higher but also its not 100%.

    if you can conceive the above is a good summary, then I'll perhaps try tackle your economic post.
     
    Last edited: Feb 12, 2020
  20. DarkHorizon472

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    Joined: May 16, 2007

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    My sheep are very well mannered, they also want to know your positives for the future now we left the EU. You seem to be struggling to come up with any don't lose faith now.