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Brexit Discussion - The new thread

Discussion in 'Speaker's Corner' started by Feek, Sep 5, 2019.

  1. Mr Jack

    Capodecina

    Joined: May 19, 2004

    Posts: 17,987

    Location: Kiel, Germany

    So, according to you, a weather forecast is not a forecast. Interesting.
     
  2. garnett

    Soldato

    Joined: Mar 25, 2008

    Posts: 5,825

    Hot on the heels of the empowerment of Sinn Féin...

     
  3. Kermit

    Mobster

    Joined: Oct 27, 2002

    Posts: 2,716

    Location: UK

    Once again you fail.

    A weather forecast despite containing a number of elements (rain, temperature, wind etc) is still a single proposition conveying a single prediction of the weather and thats why it adheres to the above definition of the word and why its called a forecast. See above posts for more details
     
  4. Kermit

    Mobster

    Joined: Oct 27, 2002

    Posts: 2,716

    Location: UK

    Why do you ask for evidence?

    I've been mostly trying to discuss possible futures, not predicting, not forecasting but laying down a few possibilities as an example of something I'd like to discuss without the animosity that's so prevalent in this thread between the two sides.

    Given we'd be discussing possible future events, there is no evidence available (or very little) and possibly only historical similarities to base any ideas on. Conversely, you can also offer no hard evidence that any of my 3 example possible Eu outcomes perhaps 20/40 years down the line are wrong or right but you could always have a go, no?

    Ideally you and others both state what your preferred ideal future EU would be like (which should be easy for remainers) as perhaps it would be good enough for the UK to overwhelmingly want to seek to rejoin?

    then also also weigh up some alternative possibilities as most of us know the future isn't certain and its also not going to be a utopian future however much we all wish it would be, at heart I'm a realist, **** happens, its been happening since the year dot and it will continue to happen although we (as humans) may try our best to mitigate some of it, we we're not too good at that eg climate, population growth, resources, pollution etc

    Now based on that, do you have any thoughts on the subject of the future UK/EU as I can't believe everyone in this thread does not think about the future much more than tomorrow or next year?

    Thats all I've been trying to ask posters to respond to whether remainers or leavers, its surely an interesting topic in its own right and now the UK has left and we're waiting to see what will happen, it gives us something to discuss ideally without accusations, hostility or being overly pedantic with each other on minor points.
     
  5. StriderX

    Capodecina

    Joined: Mar 18, 2008

    Posts: 24,395

    This slow motion train crash continues.
     
  6. Mr Badger

    Soldato

    Joined: Dec 27, 2009

    Posts: 6,815

    Take back control, sunlit uplands, no downsides, they need us more than we need them.

    It's not as though any of this was predicted...
     
  7. Devilman

    Gangster

    Joined: Feb 9, 2004

    Posts: 348

    Why is it not surprising that you are again being dishonest and intentionally mis-representing what I wrote in another post, so you can try to make some smart*** remark instead of actually addressing the comment?

    Are you not tired of being so totally dishonest with your posting?

    It's a Brexiteer trademark at this stage... Lie and twist what another person said to try and sound like a smart***
     
  8. StriderX

    Capodecina

    Joined: Mar 18, 2008

    Posts: 24,395

    To be fair we already knew this anyway and Gibraltar is Spain's sovereign (funny that...) concern, the vote seems more like pure affirmation to me, to get into the records rather than people just assuming it.

    It follows the infographic below in the end,

    Parliament has technically had a veto since the Lisbon treaty and they did use it with ACTA, so there can be no presumptions that they may not use it against a EU-UK FTA that doesn't conform to all MEP's concerns/desires, assuming it wasn't veto'd by a nation state in any of the council stages for much the same reasons. We already know what they want, since they've been in unanimous agreement on it since the beginning, so it's unlikely they break from that, but undoubtedly any compromise on their positions will mean disagreement in some quarters.

    If say... any country that has a major fishing industry (almost certainly a blocking minority if it's labeled as a security concern, not sure about that) see's a softening in the EU's stance will almost certainly take a hard-line against it, and that's just one issue among many.

    Ultimately it's up to the UK government whether it wants a deal or not, the EU is constricted (by design and acceptance of member states) by bureaucracy and having to find a deal that works for every member, and not merely in economic terms. But it seems likely that the Commission and Council will try to keep most of the political problems to individual members to resolve, but that's not exactly easy as some problems are intrinsic to the trade arrangement.

    Sigh, it's all so needless and it's somewhat agitating to keep track of what might require unanimity, qualified majority, reinforced qualified majority or simple majority votes for individual parts of the agreement or the agreement in full (assuming it can even get that far).
     
    Last edited: Feb 13, 2020
  9. Murphy

    Mobster

    Joined: Sep 16, 2018

    Posts: 3,395

    That maybe so but you've repeatedly described the principals and methods used in assessing the probability of a future event happening, aka: forecasting, and whenever someone's pointed that you voted the way you did based on a forecast and asked why your forecast was more valid than another you've gotten all defensive.
    I wouldn't say people are twisting your words, they're trying to explain what you did from the actions you've described.

    You say you believe an EU 'superstate' is one of many possible future scenarios, yes?
    You say you came to that conclusion based on past and current data, yes?
    You say you voted to leave based on that, yes?

    What you're describing is a forecast, a forecast uses past and current data to assign percentage chances of various event happening and then presents the most likely scenario. When meteorologists make a weather forecast they end up with a long list of possible weather events and each of those weather events has a percentage chance of happening next to them, snow 1%, sleet 3%, rain 40%, sunny 3%, etc, etc. Based on those percentages they decide what action needs to be taken when they give the weather forecast, do we tell the audience every possible outcome for today's weather or should we only act on what we're confident on, should we simply say there's going to be scattered showers.
     
    Last edited: Feb 13, 2020
  10. Rroff

    Man of Honour

    Joined: Oct 13, 2006

    Posts: 66,928

    Why? you've been dismissive of forecasts, case studies, predictions and the like leading up to Brexit that were based on factors much more likely to be a guide to the future what purpose are your vague aspirations as to what might happen in the future?

    I mean people ridicule "thoughts and prayers" when it comes to things like addressing the concerns of gun control in the US, etc. but that is a mirror of what you've been doing - basically basing the future of the country before and after Brexit on hopes and best wishes.
     
  11. Mr Jack

    Capodecina

    Joined: May 19, 2004

    Posts: 17,987

    Location: Kiel, Germany

    Do you even bother reading posts you reply to?

    Weather forecasts include a probability of rain, that makes them two predictions: rain, and no rain, with probabilities attached to both.

    According to you this makes them not a forecast.
     
  12. Dj_Jestar

    Caporegime

    Joined: Oct 18, 2002

    Posts: 28,670

    Location: Back in East London

    Lol.
     
  13. Kermit

    Mobster

    Joined: Oct 27, 2002

    Posts: 2,716

    Location: UK

    Your still wrong, try read it again
    but quite frankly I've just about given up caring how you can't understand a definition from the Cambridge dictionary but one last try.

    A forecast is a singular proposition which you can see from the definition I linked, it uses the word "a" to start the main definition of the word. The single proposition can however contain multiple predictions within it for example of GordyR might forecast "Brexit will result in a 3.5% GDP loss over 5 years and 3million job losses" thats a single forecast containing two predictions within it.

    If someone however types both (or >2) such as the following

    "Brexit will result in a 3.5% GDP loss over 5 years and 3million job losses"
    &
    "Brexit will result in a 5% GDP increase over 5 years and 2 million new jobs"

    then they are not forecasts partly as when taken together as there's more than one and partly as they both can't be right given they are offering opposing possabilities. You could take one alone (out of context), quote it by itself and call it a forecast but you'd be still wrong as despite you quoting only one example and calling it a forecast, the original post you've now quoted out of context (as you didn't include all the original authors possible predictions) invalidates your right to call it a forecast.

    The above is what you and others are doing with my example 'c' possibility re one possible future EU. If you quote it out of context excluding the other 2 examples (a & b), then you may think your being clever in calling it a singular prediction/forecast but you've misquoted me, taken it out of context as I offered 3 examples (out of literally 1000 of alternative possibilities) and thats doing your righteousness no favours at all.
     
    Last edited: Feb 13, 2020
  14. GordyR

    Soldato

    Joined: Dec 1, 2003

    Posts: 5,301

    Location: Essex

    Wow.

    I totally admire your persistence Kermit. You're completely and utterly wrong, and are hugely confused (no offence intended); but I have to admire your tenacity on some level.
     
  15. Kermit

    Mobster

    Joined: Oct 27, 2002

    Posts: 2,716

    Location: UK

    I asked why you think you need evidence for possible future events given nothing is FACT until that future becomes the past.

    Small example, it might rain tomorrow is a possibility agree? but I can't provide evidence is actually rained as it hasn't happened yet. I also can't provide details how many mm's it rained. Ask me on Saturday (once tomorrow has past) and then evidence is available.

    Its not a tricky concept.
     
  16. Steampunk

    Soldato

    Joined: Jun 1, 2013

    Posts: 7,288

    Deliberate ignorance is nothing to be lauded. It's people like Kermit that got us into this mess in the first place.
     
  17. Kermit

    Mobster

    Joined: Oct 27, 2002

    Posts: 2,716

    Location: UK

    You mean the the forecast/possibility definitions?

    If so explain how I'm wrong just on the point of 'forecast' being a singular proposition that may contain multiple statements (GDP, employment, etc) but if I state BOTH the following together why you think they're still forecasts given they offer opposing views?

    "Brexit will result in a 3.5% GDP loss over 5 years and 3million job losses"
    &
    "Brexit will result in a 5% GDP increase over 5 years and 2 million new jobs"
     
  18. Kermit

    Mobster

    Joined: Oct 27, 2002

    Posts: 2,716

    Location: UK

    Its people like you that have little ability to conceive of anything other than whats in front of your nose thats the problem.

    Do you not understand the concept of alternative histories that could have come about if some seemingly small things occurred differently which can and have totally changed the path of history? we may not know the alternatives but its not a fact that the EU will be great in 40 years, its also not a fact it will terrible, small things even Brexit itself can alter the path in ways I don't think you understand.

    Some examples

    a) If Archduke Ferdinand's driver hadn't taken a wrong turn, quite likely he not have been assassinated. Thats a very small thing but it led to WWI
    b) The above due to German loss of land, hyper inflation etc ultimately led to WWII played out as we know it but WWII could have played out a lot differently....
    c) If the bomb plot against Hitler in iirc 1944 had succeeded, the world would be very different now
    d) If Stalin had died (or been assassinated) near the end of WWII, then there would have been a reasonable chance the Soviets wouldn't have reached Berlin about the same time as the US, they might not have occupied Eastern Europe and there might not have been the cold war. Europe and the world would be very different now. I've just started this book on that alternative history https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/64722.Triumph
    e) if Saddam Hussain who possibly on a whim hadn't invaded Kuwait the ME and its effects would likely be very different today
    f) If someone had better evidence Trump was/is corrupt he might not be POTUS or might have been removed from office properly
    g) Greta Thunberg is likely changing the course of history right now re climate change/pollution but if ~2 years ago before she was known had perhaps journalist X or whoever first brought her to the words attention hadn't covered her story, we might not of heard of her and her "how dare you" message and we'd probably not be looking to improve how green we are at quite the same rate and that will compound and change our futures.

    The list of things that can and have changed history is nearly endless and no one for sure can say what the alternative histories would have been (some good authors have made good attempts) and as such the future the EU, UK and rest of the world is not set in stone, many little things can and will happen that can and will change the future, to post on this forum that its impossible the EU will ever turn to **** is excluding what you can't possibly know.

    Some more books on the topic - Note I get through at least one book every week for the last 10 years roughly split 50/50 on fiction and non-fiction so I guess I have amassed quite a lot of knowledge on many topics from the History of China to Brief History of Time, Einstein biographies and his physics i general and lots more so I do not think its fair to say suggest I don't have an insight into this or dismiss the general idea that the future is not set and its not predictable and in this case (getting back on topic) apply possible alternate histories that could play out to the EU/UK

    https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/56842.Fatherland?from_search=true&qid=dGjv0KU29z&rank=1
    https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/101630.In_the_Presence_of_Mine_Enemies
    https://www.goodreads.com/book/show...-again?from_search=true&qid=nZ7xGd0cn8&rank=2
     
    Last edited: Feb 13, 2020
  19. Bonjour

    Sgarrista

    Joined: Mar 30, 2004

    Posts: 9,235

    Location: London

  20. Murphy

    Mobster

    Joined: Sep 16, 2018

    Posts: 3,395

    @Kermit: I have to ask but is it that despite multiple people saying you've misinterpreted what a forecast is that they're all wrong, that there's not the slightest chance you maybe wrong?