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Brexit Discussion - The new thread

Discussion in 'Speaker's Corner' started by Feek, Sep 5, 2019.

  1. Greebo

    Caporegime

    Joined: Jan 20, 2005

    Posts: 34,990

    Location: Co Durham

    Yeah I can see it now. Invoking the blitz/war spirit that we all have to pull together to rebuild this wonderful country. No paternity leave, no employment tribunals, employers can force you to work more than 48 hours, no minimum wage but you are doing it cause you are British and we won't be beaten!. The sheepies will lap it up.
     
  2. JeditOjanen

    Soldato

    Joined: Feb 7, 2011

    Posts: 5,085

    No, that would never fly. The hit from the pandemic isn't going to be much greater than the predicted hit from hard Brexit, so they can't say we couldn't take it. It's the combination of the two hits, one after the other with no chance for recovery, that will obliterate the UK economy. If there's a second wave of COVID in October, there are serious projections of 10 million unemployed. If that happens then we'll be back in the EU less than two years after we left, or we'll be Puerto Rico 2.0 with all the respect attending.
     
  3. Greebo

    Caporegime

    Joined: Jan 20, 2005

    Posts: 34,990

    Location: Co Durham

    There are already projections of 10 million unemployed if we stay in lockdown until the end of June never mind a second wave in October. GDP is currently 30% down atm. The hit from this pandemic will dwarf any hit we would have had from a hard brexit but agree you would be mental to add that hit voluntarily on top of the pandemic hit.
     
  4. dowie

    Caporegime

    Joined: Jan 29, 2008

    Posts: 47,094

    Not sure there is too much to worry about re: optics if they were to extend - IIRC recent poll showed only 1/4 of the population is opposed, just over half in favour of extension and the rest unsure... easy enough to sell to the unsure either way.

    That seems a bit doubtful - they've been pretty good re: the measures taken so far - scrapping min wage etc.. seems rather unlikely. Tax hikes etc.. seem more likely. Self employed are going to be hit for tax going forwards (they pretty much hinted at this already when introducing the new measures to help people), dividend income is an obvious one and easily justifiable - all these companies are getting govt aid so shareholders can definitely take a hit on their dividends - yes some pensioners reliant on dividends etc.. well they're the ones that were at most risk and most benefited from everyone staying in so.... temp rise in income tax could be a bit of a no brainer too.

    Very dubious! This pandemic completely eclipses brexit.

    Why? It's not like EU countries aren't getting hit by this thing too. Quite a lot of potential for all sorts of fun and games in the eurozone now.
     
  5. garnett

    Soldato

    Joined: Mar 25, 2008

    Posts: 6,341

    Does it? On what terms? What forecasts are you comparing to draw that conclusion?
     
  6. Greebo

    Caporegime

    Joined: Jan 20, 2005

    Posts: 34,990

    Location: Co Durham

    basically we are down 30% gdp for every month this goes on. Once we are back up and running we won’t be back to where we were as millions of companies will have folded and up to 10 million will be unemployed. Even the worst case forescaste for a no deal Brexit was only a percent or so of gdp lost (on any gains, not meaning negative) per annum.

    corona virus has the potential to be bigger than the Great Depression easily if it’s not handled right. You would barely notice the affects of a no deal in the middle of that.
     
  7. dowie

    Caporegime

    Joined: Jan 29, 2008

    Posts: 47,094

    I'm not, that's somewhat missing the point. Take a look at what has happened already and what the risks are here...
     
  8. banbom44

    Hitman

    Joined: Mar 28, 2018

    Posts: 698

    i hope Germany's got deep pockets because all the southern European countries are gonna be getting the begging bowl out big time.
     
  9. garnett

    Soldato

    Joined: Mar 25, 2008

    Posts: 6,341

    I don't dispute it. It's just that everything you're referencing as the possible basis for dowie's assertion looks a lot like the sort of forecasting he's dismissed for the last 3 years as meaningless, because of [reasons], in an effort to argue Brexit's success or failure is untestable.

    It seems that now Coronavirus has created another means for Brexiteers to shirk accountability, he's leapt on that, and suddenly has no problem with forecasts.
     
    Last edited: Apr 9, 2020
  10. Greebo

    Caporegime

    Joined: Jan 20, 2005

    Posts: 34,990

    Location: Co Durham

    lol fair enough, I get where you were going with this now. Good luck down the dowie hole :p
     
  11. Murphy

    Mobster

    Joined: Sep 16, 2018

    Posts: 4,174

    IDK a great deal about the Eurozone but don't any 'bailouts' get paid back? I thought the EFSF and now the ESM were basically lenders of last resort, key word there being lender, as in loans have to be repaid.
     
  12. dowie

    Caporegime

    Joined: Jan 29, 2008

    Posts: 47,094

    Criticising or pointing out the limitations of something = always against that thing? Perhaps a reflection on your own thinking. Try to deal with what has been posted instead of making up straw man arguments, again. And yes arguing against some vague position on my behalf that you’ve come up with is a straw man.

    Take a look in the covid forum if you like, it’s not like I haven’t been commenting on this issue for a while. An no you don’t need forecasts to have seen the problems here - in fact plenty of the risks are/were unknowns - that isn’t to say modelling doesn’t have its place but precautionary policies would have been much better (let’s face it the modelling/forecasting has been rather dubious so far for obvious reasons).
     
  13. do_ron_ron

    Capodecina

    Joined: Oct 23, 2002

    Posts: 10,088

    They had an agreement ready to go when the Netherlands and Italy objected to how it was to be implemented. This morning the Italian PM is warning of the EU collapsing because he did not get his way. It will please the hearts of Express and other readers who continually say the EU is going to fold.
     
  14. dowie

    Caporegime

    Joined: Jan 29, 2008

    Posts: 47,094

    ESM comes with conditions (see Greece) thought technically this isn’t really Spain or Italy’s fault (technically the weaker financial position before this was kind of) so might not result in them losing “sovereignty” and ze Germans running the show... (@Panos probs has some strong opinions on that) conditions could be looser and related to use of money for covid etc...

    Problem is they don’t want ESM, they want “coronabonds” or “Eurobonds” (which confusingly is a term used for another type of bond too). Collectivised debt shared by Eurozone countries. This has always been a red line for German likewise Austria, Netherlands, Finland etc... not fans either. France is cool with it tho... then again Macron is Mr Europe at the mo also, cynically, France (French Banks etc.. ) is very much exposed to Italian debt.

    Anyway this is perhaps something for a separate thread even - I mean UK was never in the Eurozone and we’re not in the EU either now - this is a bun fight between those countries.
     
  15. garnett

    Soldato

    Joined: Mar 25, 2008

    Posts: 6,341

    What's vague or "strawman" about your latest hypocrisy in switching from asserting we can't forecast to now saying we can?

    I'm not interested in following you down the usual dowiehole while you furiously attempt to use revision/deflection/vanishingly small semantic differences to explain away your logical inconsistencies.

    I just like flagging them when the latest one manifests itself.

    If you don't like it, try and maintain some logical consistency or integrity.
     
  16. dowie

    Caporegime

    Joined: Jan 29, 2008

    Posts: 47,094

    Can and can’t forecast what exactly? What post(s) are you referring to?

    Again try to deal with what I’ve actually posted instead of some simplistic absolutist position you’ve made up on my behalf. Doing that is very much a straw man argument.
     
  17. garnett

    Soldato

    Joined: Mar 25, 2008

    Posts: 6,341

    Lots of Brexiteers arguing in the conversation on C-19 that we mustn't put consideration of certain things [ie, the deaths of people who "would have died shortly anyway") above consideration of the economy.

    Perhaps it'd help everyone's understanding if they established a Brexiteer Hierarchy of Need. What have we got so far? It seems to be:-
    • Indulgence of my prejudice
    • Xenophobia
    • The Economy
    • Preventing the deaths of tens if not hundreds of thousands of people
     
  18. Tony Edwards

    Mobster

    Joined: Feb 4, 2018

    Posts: 4,779

    Well I hope to see 17 million volunteers out delivering goods to the old and needy and in the fields picking our crops and working in supermarkets while us remainers hide behind our curtains over Corona then.

    Actually could it be the brexiters out breaking the social distancing rules?
     
  19. Greebo

    Caporegime

    Joined: Jan 20, 2005

    Posts: 34,990

    Location: Co Durham

    Well "Sovereignty" came above economy as Brexit was worth the financial hit (apparently). So you need to put that above the deaths of thousands of people.
     
  20. Rroff

    Man of Honour

    Joined: Oct 13, 2006

    Posts: 68,468

    It is an interesting point academically but I don't see how people with this perspective can't see the problem that happens the other way - I'm guessing like Brexit they've convinced themselves of an opinion and unable or unwilling to change it and only cherry picking the bits they want to see.

    Without the benefit of hindsight we have no idea of how things would turn out if we took the brakes off and just let the disease run much faster to a degree so as to make the economic damage as little as possible and plenty of evidence based on the historical facts we do know (sounds familiar) that the outcome is likely the disease presents a significant problem for our health services with a high chance they would be overwhelmed and cases and deaths mount up to the level where people panic and take matters into their own hands which has just as much potential to wreck the economy.

    But until they see it for themselves some seem to be in denial.