1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

Brexit Discussion

Discussion in 'Speaker's Corner' started by FrenchTart, Sep 11, 2016.

  1. Aneskimo

    Hitman

    Joined: Jul 10, 2013

    Posts: 946

    Location: West Midlands

    So it’s what 15 months after the referendum and talks have stalled to a stale mate again what is going on there then?
     
  2. do_ron_ron

    Soldato

    Joined: Oct 23, 2002

    Posts: 5,715

    Except our credit cards are maxed out and our debts are massive. The only nation who will be bending over backwards will be the UK as it tries to get some sort of trade deal. Still you can enjoy your chlorinated chicken.
     
  3. lunarwolf

    Mobster

    Joined: Dec 27, 2006

    Posts: 3,074

    Location: Dark Forest



    Wishing it doesn't make it so in the real world. Take off your rosy tinted glasses.

    Hard Brexit is nothing more than suicidal for the UK, there is no amount of posistive spin to counter that fact. Brexit hasn't even started yet the pound took a beating, growth is anemic and investment is down - this will not get better post Brexit.

    It has nothing to do with a positive attitude, it's about making smart decisions based on facts not xenophobia, which is the main reason behind the vote, even if many won't admit to it and use the sovereignty argument to justify an ill informed decision. The UK is sovereign ruler is the UK. EU laws that are applicable in the UK were agreed to by the UK first place when these rules were drawn up in Brussels. The EU isnt imposing anything that the UK hasn't already agreed, eventhough some unscrupulous politicians like to pretend to cover up their mismanagement of domestic issues
     
  4. do_ron_ron

    Soldato

    Joined: Oct 23, 2002

    Posts: 5,715

    We have a Govt with two visions of post Brexit and they are both still trying to get the upper hand.

    As said above, if you look at the people who want a hard brexit, they have independent wealth so it will not bother them. The ordinary people do not have that luxury.
     
  5. Radox-0

    Wise Guy

    Joined: Mar 9, 2015

    Posts: 1,540

    Location: Earth

    We have still not come to an agreement to the key points the EU have said from the very start that need to be pinned down before talks move to the next stage. The EU have been pretty consistent on the area's they expect to have reached a satisfactory point before we move on so its not like this is out the blue.

    Does not help that our own government does not have a consistent approach within their own ranks, with all the leak's, backstabbing etc within the cabinet itself, we look like a joke.
     
  6. garnett

    Wise Guy

    Joined: Mar 25, 2008

    Posts: 1,554

    Since your anecdote is all you've relied on, why don't you tell us exactly what it was you saw in Spalding that persuaded you the UK is being negatively effected by being in the EU
     
    Last edited: Oct 12, 2017
  7. Fusion

    Sgarrista

    Joined: Oct 18, 2002

    Posts: 9,264

    Location: Notts

    When’s the sky falling in then? I’m going to break the no-positive-anecdote by offering a bit of light on my situation, namely that I’ve worked for two electronics manufacturing companies since the result, and both are doing very well indeed. Increased orders, heavy capital investment, employment growth, new product development, new technologies being trialled, I could go on and on. The currency drop has obviously contributed, as both are heavily export-driven businesses, with large quantities of products going to China and the Far East- no surprise, as that’s where a lot of growth is to be found, rather than inside Europe.

    Anecdotes rightly have limited power in a debate such as this, so we should turn our attention to the stock market- FTSE100 near a record high. Ditto for the FTSE250, which features less companies reliant on earnings made overseas. 4.5% unemployment, lowest since 1975.

    Inflation, seen as “high” at 2.9%, even though it was 5.1% in Sep 2011, 5.1% in Sep 2008, and 8.5% in Apr 1991 (we won’t even mention the 70s and 80s). Pretty sure we've been inside the EU during these times.

    When will the negative outlook hit the markets and key economic measures, and why isn’t the stock market- that agglomeration of sentiment, reflecting the brooding pessimism? The step change didn’t materialise on 24th June 2016. 29th March 2017 passed without a hitch. Are we going for March 2019? March 2021? Some other nebulous and ever receding date?
     
  8. garnett

    Wise Guy

    Joined: Mar 25, 2008

    Posts: 1,554

    Lol. Daily Mail claptrap regurgitated verbatim without the slightest filtering thought (and already dismantled at length on here).
     
  9. Vonhelmet

    Caporegime

    Joined: Jun 28, 2005

    Posts: 46,234

    Location: On the hoods

    Not sure if satire or financially illiterate.
     
  10. lunarwolf

    Mobster

    Joined: Dec 27, 2006

    Posts: 3,074

    Location: Dark Forest

    Not to mention the fact that the Ftse 100 is not a reliable metric to measure the performance of an economy.

    First not all companies listed are UK companies.

    Secondly, the stock market is only important to those that have disposible income to invest in stock portfolios, unlike the average joe living paycheck to paycheck.

    Thirdly not all shareholders are UK citizens

    Lastly, the stock market has benefitted from record low interest rates making the bond market bare. One must not forget the stock market is a house of cards and can collapse overnight at the slightest panic, and everyone rushes to commodities, currencies etc...

    There are some worrying economic measures, such as stagnant wages in inflationary environment, a significant drop in the pound, a growing deficit when borrowing will be more difficult since credit rating has been downgraded, consumers struggling with high debt, anemic growth, and poor outlook for investment. All this can get quickly out of control and make a perfect storm post march 2019
     
    Last edited: Oct 12, 2017
  11. footman

    Mobster

    Joined: Oct 21, 2002

    Posts: 3,433

    You forgot the word delusional.......tut tut
     
  12. wildman

    Soldato

    Joined: Nov 7, 2002

    Posts: 5,269

    Location: Idiotic Britain

    I was in my local pub and some geeser who has worked 2 different jobs since the vote said both companies he worked for have closed down their UK branches and moved everything to Lyon and Frankfurt due to brexit uncertainty. I can do anecdotes too.............. do i get a gold Brexit star............ ?
     
  13. kitch9

    Soldato

    Joined: Aug 13, 2008

    Posts: 5,905

    Bet you can't name said companies.
     
  14. mid_gen

    Soldato

    Joined: Dec 20, 2004

    Posts: 6,662

    Location: Düsseldorf

    The reason the FTSE is strong? It's full of multinationals operating in non GBP currencies, so the plummet in Sterling pushes up associated stocks, and as pointed out the bond market is dead with the rock bottom interest rates and investors need somewhere to put their money.

    Meanwhile, inflation is pushing up prices, growth is faltering, consumer debt is rising, wages are stagnating, imports are more expensive.

    All this and we're still only *talking* about Brexit, we've got another year and half until it (possibly) happens.
     
  15. Fusion

    Sgarrista

    Joined: Oct 18, 2002

    Posts: 9,264

    Location: Notts

    It's a good barometer of sentiment, which was my point. Not sure what you mean by "UK companies"- they are listed here. Many are multinationals, which I acknowledged- that's why I also mentioned the FTSE250, which is comprised less of these types of firms.

    Pension funds aren't important then? Many are heavily invested in the market, including those in the public sector. The point about non-UK citizens being shareholders isn't really relevant, I never stated this was the case. Investors from all over are being attracted to the FTSE. We are in a bull market admittedly, and over-confidence and misplaced confidence exists- I'm not naive enough to deny this. But we haven't seen the 1987 crash or bear market in 2003- nothing remotely of the sort (nor do we want to).

    There are always bearish factors, but many European countries are in a much worse position when it comes to debt, deficits and low/negative growth. Many outside the EU and Europe are doing great.
     
  16. Aneskimo

    Hitman

    Joined: Jul 10, 2013

    Posts: 946

    Location: West Midlands


    Does anyone have faith in May getting a good deal? I don’t for the reasons I stated about her inheritance of the job from Cameron and she has failed to inspire me since her reign started
     
  17. ramsden

    Gangster

    Joined: Oct 24, 2007

    Posts: 104

    Location: Wirral, UK

    I was under the impression the FTSE was doing well because the pound was tanking?
     
  18. Fusion

    Sgarrista

    Joined: Oct 18, 2002

    Posts: 9,264

    Location: Notts

    I admitted the weakness of anecdotes, but there's only so much first hand experience a person can have and convey. If those firms had been laying off left, right and centre and paring investment right back, it'd have worried me- and affected my outlook. We're not talking minnows either, one currently has a value of £3.5 billion. I know you don't want to hear it, but the finance director gave one of his periodic presentations prior to the vote, and was powerfully bullish about company prospects irrespective of outcome. None of us have a crystal ball, but so far, this has been borne out.

    Remember these companies have survived and prospered through multiple recessions, the stagflation of the 70s, super high interest rates, three-day week, ERM crash, strikes, conflicts, dot com crash, 9/11, the list goes on. Good businesses are incredibly resilient and competent, often a damn sight more so than governments...
     
  19. wildman

    Soldato

    Joined: Nov 7, 2002

    Posts: 5,269

    Location: Idiotic Britain

    except this time they can only be resilient if their government get their act together. You can have all the resilience in the world but when you start getting tariffed to hell and back your resilience means nothing as your costs are going to go into orbit and you struggle to compete with others who can produce the same for less and not incur a truck load of tariffs. This is completely different to every example of hardship you cited because each one of those had zero dependency on a government being able to agree and legislate with a massive bloc which is looking after is remaining members ahead of everything else.
     
  20. loftie

    Gangster

    Joined: Oct 17, 2009

    Posts: 250

    Me too.

    If you were 'proper' British, you would have mentioned about queuing and how fantastic it was. :p I think we may have stumbled upon a positive side effect of Brexit, think of all the queues there will be at Dover. It'll be the biggest queue in the country. Heck we could market it to tourists as the ultimate British experience. And everyone here thought Brexit would be bad for the economy, see you've just got to think positive :D
     


Share This Page