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Brexit Discussion

Discussion in 'SC Archive' started by FrenchTart, Sep 11, 2016.

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  1. terley

    Mobster

    Joined: Feb 3, 2010

    Posts: 2,869

    People don't trust the experts anymore, thats the issue...
     
  2. Rroff

    Man of Honour

    Joined: Oct 13, 2006

    Posts: 68,871

    Problem for me - personally I can accept that maybe the/some experts have it wrong it won't be the first time by a long shot - but no one so far has come up with even a half reasoned alternative proposition - I'm not even looking for facts just some reasoning that has some thought behind it that doesn't fall flat on its face at the first hurdle.
     
  3. No1newts

    Capodecina

    Joined: May 24, 2009

    Posts: 20,047

    Location: North East

    Put simply, a big reason our currency is so strong is we are generally viewed as a strong, competent and steady economic investment in respect that the economy generally only moves one way and is pretty immune to fluctuation.

    Since the result and watching our insanity our currency has devalued by 20% this is fact. We are country which is a net importer (circa 60-65%) meaning with nothing changing we are already substantially worse off (look at inflation figures)

    Some leavers would have you believe we will benefit by suddenly becoming a goods exporter now to make up for this. Putting aside the obvious fallacy that an economy can adjust from s service based to goods based net exporter with no notice we are a global economy. To truly benefit from being an exporter you would need all goods made and sourced in country to truly benefit from the reduced costs. As it is (taking the car industry as an example) we import huge amounts.of the car we assemble and we are now paying 20% more for these parts meaning we are not actually able to operate cheaper (and thus make more profit) Even if we were able to source everything locally (we are not) you are then expecting foreign nationals to miss the glaring point that goods are now cheaper to produce and then allowing us to keep the profit, in reality they will only buy if they can take the saving on themselves.


    So, will it be doomsday? No, but we will continue to get poorer especially if market confidence continues to drop because of our decisions unless we suddenly become a net exporter and even then we cannot replicate what we import locally.

    TLDR; As uncomfortable as it may be to admit for.leave supporters there is a very tangible and easily defined negative financial impact from a leave decision which we will all feel immediately and will be disproportionately inflicted upon the poorer.
     
  4. Litmoose

    Gangster

    Joined: Dec 16, 2008

    Posts: 371

    Tories havent whipped against anything? Only main party to do so, and fail greatly so far is Labour. Whipped twice against a free house and lost
     
  5. Cern

    Mobster

    Joined: Jul 3, 2008

    Posts: 3,466

    Location: London

    What specific demographics would that be then?

    And how would this compare to the strong Remain vote in Scotland and N.Ireland?
     
  6. robfosters

    Caporegime

    Joined: Dec 1, 2010

    Posts: 34,876

    Location: Welling, London

    Scotland and n.Ireland haven’t had anywhere near the levels of immigration England has.
     
  7. Cern

    Mobster

    Joined: Jul 3, 2008

    Posts: 3,466

    Location: London

    I know, but @terley was claiming the demographics of England's major cities are what's responsible for the strong Remain vote there, yet this is clearly different to the demographics of Scotland and N.Ireland.
     
  8. Puzzled

    Soldato

    Joined: Jul 9, 2003

    Posts: 6,866

    Yep, a lot of leave voters won't openly admit to it either due to just not wanting to discuss it or because they are tired of being told they were wrong. The shy voter phenomenon happens a lot, you get people who won't admit to which political party they voted for either and its why I think if we did have another referendum it won't be as clear cut a win for remain as many think.

    That said I can also see voter turnout being lower so it might win through apathy but unless it wins by a big margin the issue isn't going to go away.
     
  9. terley

    Mobster

    Joined: Feb 3, 2010

    Posts: 2,869

    "

    ^

    @Cern This

    At the 2011 census, London had a population of 8,173,941. Of this number, 44.9% were White British.
    57.9% of Birmingham were White British.
    59.3% of Manchester were White British.

    It should not surprise anyone that migrants don't like the idea of a much tighter immigration system.
     
  10. terley

    Mobster

    Joined: Feb 3, 2010

    Posts: 2,869

    I didn't say that...

    I said.

    I speculated on causality, I did not state causation.
     
  11. Nitefly

    Man of Honour

    Joined: Sep 24, 2005

    Posts: 32,479

    Is it not that people with more exposure to migrants realise that immigration is not something that warrants venomous disapproval?

    I mentioned above that about 1/30 of people I know voted to leave. Pretty much every single person I know is white. I’m in Bristol, a remainer haven. It’s a fairly diverse city and yet all the white Brits here are voting remain.

    I really don’t get the fuss about immigration. I can’t think of a single way it’s legitimately negatively impacted my life. I am utterly lost as to why people feel such personal victims to it.
     
  12. Rroff

    Man of Honour

    Joined: Oct 13, 2006

    Posts: 68,871

    One problem I think that might crop up is the number of people who've been watching the events in parliament over the past couple of weeks who did vote remain but are so dissatisfied with parliament and our politicians they'd vote leave as a reaction to that :( which won't actually accomplish anything.

    I still think leave would win out with another referendum though - I think a lot more people would vote remain who sat on the fence last time just to try and end this who farce (a lot of the surveys on social media, etc. tend to suggest that).
     
  13. terley

    Mobster

    Joined: Feb 3, 2010

    Posts: 2,869


    I love migrants, some of my best friends are first, second and third generation migrants.

    However i have seen entire towns change due to unchecked and unmoderated numbers, I've experienced walking down the same road as a 10-12 year old hearing nothing but English language being spoken, to being a 30 year old walking down the same road with every 1 in 10 conversations not being a foreign language.

    Whilst people from other countries are not a problem, if the number is too great then the history and culture of an area can be lost.

    This is more of an issue for people i believe than the whole "terrorist implication" from non-eu countries.
     
  14. terley

    Mobster

    Joined: Feb 3, 2010

    Posts: 2,869


    I am almost certain that if a second referendum took place with "Leave or remain" as the options, then leave would win by a far greater margin.

    I personally voted remain and my area (Sefton) was a result of remain, as was Liverpool.

    My job has me travelling between numerous work locations interacting with hundreds of people. From my experiences, I have met MANY more brexiteers since the vote than remain.
     
  15. Cern

    Mobster

    Joined: Jul 3, 2008

    Posts: 3,466

    Location: London

    Where did it say on the 2016 referendum ballot paper that we were getting a much tighter immigration system for non-EU citizens? Most non-white British citizens are from a South Asian, Caribbean or African background.

    Actually, if British citizens from a Commonwealth background wanted more immigration from a similar background, they would probably have been better advised to vote Leave. It's inevitable reduced EU immigration will be replaced by increased non-EU immigration, as is already happening. And there's actually some evidence that a significant proportion of the South Asian community did vote Leave in certain areas such as Luton, NW London, Bradford and others.

    https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017...ian-vote-for-brexit-contains-a-few-surprises/

    You're making assumptions.
     
  16. Rroff

    Man of Honour

    Joined: Oct 13, 2006

    Posts: 68,871

    I have my doubts - even when pro-leave circles have heavily promoted and ran surveys the results have come back strongly in favour of remain and revoking A50 petition has significant results - I think a lot more people would come out to vote remain that were passive before just to see an end to this uncertainty which is also the general feel I get from people I know IRL.
     
  17. humbug

    Caporegime

    Joined: Mar 17, 2012

    Posts: 34,008

    Polls are always wildly wrong. Polls said Remain would win last time.

    I don't see why we should have to vote again given we already have and we won, of course i'm not going to say "oh yes let's vote again" when i won but if it come to it Brexit will win again and i think Parliment know it which is why a proper Brexit will not even be on the ballot paper, it will be a losers vote to overturn it. like Remain or May's deal that no one wants.
     
  18. terley

    Mobster

    Joined: Feb 3, 2010

    Posts: 2,869

    I know im making assumptions... Thats what i said originally, i even replied to you already on the fact i am making assumptions, but you didn't reply to me.

    [​IMG]

    I am well aware that the majority of the non-white population in major cities of the UK are from the locations you mention.

    I'm not going to start trying to fit the role of the other guy of this debate that seems to be existing with you and the person you think i am.
     
  19. Stretch

    Capodecina

    Joined: Feb 14, 2004

    Posts: 12,204

    Location: Peoples Republic of Histonia, Cambridge

    The reason we should vote again is it's a monumental decision, and there is a significant difference between the softer and/or sunny depiction of Brexit as it was portrayed in 2016, and the no deal that we potentially face today.

    The fact we talking about leaving without withdrawal settlement, the potential chaos (if only short term), the detrimental impact it will have on our international relationships, what happens in Ireland and Scotland etc. None of this was seriously considered.
     
  20. Mr Badger

    Sgarrista

    Joined: Dec 27, 2009

    Posts: 7,629

    You are just trotting out the same old counter factual stuff that perpetuates the leaver stereotype. Polls are not always wildly wrong (as you claim) and they certainly weren't "wildly wrong" for the Brexit referendum. As I recall they predicted a narrow Remain victory with a 5% margin for error and what we got was a narrow leave victory, within that 5% margin of error. 51.9% vs 48.1% is not a landslide result.

    Can you not see that this is not about winning and losing? You might think that you won back in 2016 but are you also still kidding yourself that the promised unicorn, cake and eat it Brexit can be delivered? Last week that ship finally sailed out of site forever. At the moment we are all losers (huge amounts of money already wasted on Brexit, value of our currency down, billions transferred offshore, jobs lost, investment cancelled etc.) and things can most certainly get worse.
     
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