1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

Brexit Discussion

Discussion in 'Speaker's Corner' started by FrenchTart, Sep 11, 2016.

  1. Harlequin

    Mobster

    Joined: Jun 17, 2004

    Posts: 2,931

    Location: Eastbourne , East Sussex.

  2. Six6siX

    Mobster

    Joined: Nov 25, 2004

    Posts: 4,722

    Location: Hertfordshire

    I didn't quote you. It's a general observation on the topic of trade deals post Brexit.

    But since you picked the comment out, do you agree or disagree with the analysis?
     
  3. Greebo

    Caporegime

    Joined: Jan 20, 2005

    Posts: 30,769

    Location: Co Durham

    Of course we will. Any trade deal will be better than WTO terms even if its bad. You are naive if you think we wont sign up to bad trade deals and stay on WTO terms for the rest of your lives.
     
  4. do_ron_ron

    Sgarrista

    Joined: Oct 23, 2002

    Posts: 8,644

    Makeup of House of Representatives D: 236. Republicans: 197. Any trade deal, gets ratified in both houses. She is the Democratic leader of the House.

    So absolutely no power in your fantasy world.
     
  5. billysielu

    Capodecina

    Joined: Aug 9, 2009

    Posts: 11,135

    Location: Oxfordshire

    I just see it as whether the sum of all trade deals (including one with the EU) is better than our current arrangement or not. I don't know the answer to that.
    I don't think there's any merit to arguing whether the UK can get a better deal than the EU with any particular third country.

    Never said we would stay on WTO for the rest of our lives.
    Do think we won't sign bad deals. We could argue what constitutes bad. To some extent it depends on how bad the no deal situation actually turned out to be. Some would argue it's the worst thing ever, some would argue it's not, so w/e really.

    Sigh can't you just think a little further into the future.
     
  6. StriderX

    Capodecina

    Joined: Mar 18, 2008

    Posts: 18,672

    50 years in the future just to maybe possibly be where we were in 2005?

    The problem with the future is that it’s mostly unknown, so why go into the unknown with more unknowns? That’s no way to run a country let alone a society, especially one that is so stuck in shallow nostalgia.

    When brexit inevitably fails, there’s always a chance for it to get worse by electing in populists who’ll quite literally turn this country into ash before it ever prospers.
     
    Last edited: Apr 16, 2019
  7. do_ron_ron

    Sgarrista

    Joined: Oct 23, 2002

    Posts: 8,644

    As trade deals take 7-10 years to negotiate and the effects will take about 10 years to be felt. That is a long time in the human working cycle. Or do you subscribe to the Mogg 50 years before we see if it works?
     
  8. edscdk

    Soldato

    Joined: Jul 17, 2008

    Posts: 6,580

    you forgot pension issues and global warming / rising sea levels
     
  9. Gigabit

    Mobster

    Joined: Apr 9, 2012

    Posts: 11,767

    I honestly wish that even at this late stage, I had the ability to stick my fingers in my ears and go “la la la”
     
  10. matt100

    Capodecina

    Joined: Jul 31, 2004

    Posts: 11,144

    Location: Salisbury

    Just so we're clear your talking about thinking into a possible but as yet hypothetical future right?

    So less thinking into the future, more "can't you envisage a way this could go well" which is a totally credible position because it might?

    Or is there a specific determined thing that's going to happen that you're referring to?
     
  11. do_ron_ron

    Sgarrista

    Joined: Oct 23, 2002

    Posts: 8,644

    Ask @billysielu how he does it. It seems to work for him;););););)
     
  12. Six6siX

    Mobster

    Joined: Nov 25, 2004

    Posts: 4,722

    Location: Hertfordshire

    No one KNOWS 100% what the answer is as we can't see the future. However, we can deduce from the facts, a reasoned position as to what the best way forward is economically.

    So given all the available information on this topic (and I don't just mean forecasts and predictions on economic growth - I'm talking about things as straightforward as buying and selling power vs population/GDP/market size), where do you think the UK will sit in terms of trade deals post Brexit? To be clear, I'm asking for your specific analysis on this in relation to the available information and whether or not you agree or disagree with my initial assertion.

    There clearly is, as this is the crux of many a Brexiteer argument and forms the basis of the entire economic debate.
     
  13. Murphy

    Wise Guy

    Joined: Sep 16, 2018

    Posts: 1,446

    It's a bit rich to say remainers are making stuff up, making things up has typically been the remit of leave supports, they're the ones who normally turn their noses up at facts and evidence in favor of feels and making up fake news to support their beliefs.
    The word you're looking for is forecast as predicting infers a degree of certainty and as you rightly point out nobody knows the future, however saying we can't make forecast or even predictions on the future is disingenuous and you know it is, because if you didn't know that you'd be incapable of living your life, you wouldn't take any notice of weather forecasts, you wouldn't take any notice of what a doctor tell you because you'd believe he can't predict if your medication is going to work or that an illness is going to kill you, you'd cross the road in front of a bus because you'd believe that you can't predict if it's going to run you over.

    You know full well that you use the information around you everyday to predict the future and making a prediction on whether we'll get a good trade deal is no different, it's just a matter of gathering all the available information and make a judgment
    Says someone who claims you can't predict the future. :rolleyes:
     
    Last edited: Apr 16, 2019
  14. billysielu

    Capodecina

    Joined: Aug 9, 2009

    Posts: 11,135

    Location: Oxfordshire

    Sure, but none of us are qualified to do that.
     
  15. D.P.

    Caporegime

    Joined: Oct 18, 2002

    Posts: 29,965

    But there are experts who are qualified to do that
     
  16. do_ron_ron

    Sgarrista

    Joined: Oct 23, 2002

    Posts: 8,644

    People in this country and the world are doing it all the time. What do you think the Budget is? Companies do it all the time for various reasons. I doubt there is a company that waits to see what has happened before it does planning.
     
  17. Mr Badger

    Soldato

    Joined: Dec 27, 2009

    Posts: 6,106

    I'll leave it up to billysielu as to whether he falls into this category, however a theme I have noticed when speaking with many Brexiters is this underlying belief that we can do things better than the EU because, well, because we're British. There are never any real facts or details to back this up, simply an automatic assumption that we have some God given right or ability and so of course we can do it better than the French, Germans etc. I mean, who won the war anyway! Attempting to explain that (currently at least) WE ARE THE EU and the advantages of being in a single market and customs union and the negotiating benefits of being in a larger economic bloc count for nothing. British deals for British people are always going to be better. Why you ask? Just because, that's why.
     
  18. Martini1991

    Caporegime

    Joined: Sep 18, 2009

    Posts: 27,256

    Location: Dormanstown.

    So, Billy wants to leave, just because?
     
  19. billysielu

    Capodecina

    Joined: Aug 9, 2009

    Posts: 11,135

    Location: Oxfordshire

    I think that argument is about law-making rather than trade. When the EU makes laws it has to consider all members. An independent UK wouldn't have that constraint.

    lmao where'd you get that from?
     
  20. Martini1991

    Caporegime

    Joined: Sep 18, 2009

    Posts: 27,256

    Location: Dormanstown.

    You don't seem to be arguing that things will be better.