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Brexit Discussion

Discussion in 'Speaker's Corner' started by FrenchTart, Sep 11, 2016.

  1. RedvGreen

    Mobster

    Joined: Dec 2, 2009

    Posts: 3,507

    Location: Midlands

  2. a1ex2001

    Capodecina

    Joined: Mar 14, 2005

    Posts: 11,205

    Location: Here and There...

  3. Quartz

    Soldato

    Joined: Apr 1, 2014

    Posts: 7,310

    Location: Aberdeen

    ITYM Never ever EVER trust a politician.
     
  4. D.P.

    Caporegime

    Joined: Oct 18, 2002

    Posts: 29,965

    brexit has ironically made the EU stronger and more coherent. The far-right anti-EU parties in other countries have seen the mess that Farage and wreaked and so they have changed tactic and instead of trying to leave the EU are campaigning to make changes to the EU from the inside. The Brexit vote has also ensured voters in other countries that might not vote to get out of the house and reject the far-right. The whole rise of the right that was predicted by some completely failed to materialize, and in fact it is the moderate left that has grown. E.g., recent Daish elections saw the right-wing bloc voted out and a left bloc move in, but the left bloc has much greater support form moderate left than center left social democrats.
     
  5. String

    Capodecina

    Joined: Jan 6, 2013

    Posts: 11,442

    There was a video posted in here that showed the many claims made by the Leave campaign that have turned out to be a bit of a pipe dream. Does anyone still have a link to that?
     
  6. Murphy

    Wise Guy

    Joined: Sep 16, 2018

    Posts: 1,452

    I replied in the other thread and i guess from you're edit it wasn't this?

    Maybe a bit more info would help narrow things down as there's been quiet a lot of lies told, could it be this one by a constitutional lawyer?

     
  7. garnett

    Mobster

    Joined: Mar 25, 2008

    Posts: 4,014

    Not a video, but a 50-post twitter thread...
     
  8. String

    Capodecina

    Joined: Jan 6, 2013

    Posts: 11,442

    @Murphy @garnett thanks for the replies.

    It was a compilation of interviews etc.. with people like Andrea Leadsom claiming the trade deal would be the easiest in history etc.

    Actually, that Twitter feed but with the actual recorded interviews.
     
  9. Murphy

    Wise Guy

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    Posts: 1,452

    This one?

     
  10. Irish_Tom

    Capodecina

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    Posts: 12,040

    I wanted to come back to this but I appreciate it’s been a couple of days so my apologies.

    Based on some of your subsequent posts, I can’t tell if you’re just playing devil’s advocate or if you genuinely believe the position stated in the first post I quoted.

    As @Dolph says, a net positive, even in the long term seems unlikely. In order to achieve that you have to make some fairly big assumptions.

    You accept that there will be short-term (5–10 years) economic pain due to the disruption of leaving. After that period you have to assume that economic growth will not only pick up, but pick up at a higher rate than the growth we would have achieved had we remained in the EU. The rate has to be so high that we make up the shortfall lost during the 5–10 years of disruption and then out-grow our parallel Remain selves.

    What sort of time-horizon do you predict that we would reach this point?

    You suggest that being outside the EU would put us in a stronger position to weather an EU-wide calamity, which may help to achieve the net positive outcome above, but again the assumptions are large.

    You firstly have to assume that there will be a huge EU-wide economic crash which doesn’t affect the rest of the world. You then have to assume that, despite the influence of economic gravity which @GordyR has so eloquently explained, the UK position would be strong enough to mitigate the effect to a point where we see a net positive outcome.

    When do you predict this calamity will happen? In the next 5–10 years? Because that would seriously affect the UK if we were still trying to recover from our own self-imposed disruption. The longer the timeframe, the wider the economic gap that has to be closed to achieve the net positive result.

    Now this is purely about the numbers, it doesn’t begin to explore the type of economy we would have/need to achieve those net gains. We’ve already heard about the kind of free trade agreements we can expect to have to negotiate with the USA (access to the NHS, agriculture etc) and India (freedom of movement) and so on.

    Of course, a positive stance on remaining in the EU comes with its own assumptions but, to my mind, they are less far-fetched than those above (mainly that putting ourselves at an economic disadvantage in the short-medium term is going to reap huge rewards over the long term).
     
    Last edited: Jun 18, 2019
  11. matt100

    Capodecina

    Joined: Jul 31, 2004

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    Location: Salisbury

    It was a generalisation, I'm drawing a line between the folks who normally cover themselves in MY flag and the way they often behave, which is embarrassing. I mean, the swastica symbolises good luck in various asian cultures, but sadly some idiots co-opted it and now it's tricky to reclaim. Similar thing has happened to MY flag.

    On that... what would happen if I said it to you face? A robust debate? or are you proving the point?

    Anyway, for the second time now.. I'm FOURTY TWO.. I can guess what your issue with Uni is but you're barking up the wrong tree, I'm a working class northerner born in '77 who doesn't have a degree but is reasonably senior in a global corporation whose products you definitely use that is truly fed up with trying to prepare and second guess the outcomes of this nonsense.

    I'm quite looking forward to Boris as PM now.. the news started in earnest yesterday about him saying different things to different people. I believe what you're all about to do is have someone who can package your climbdown in a way you'll all happily gobble down.

    A bit like good old Nige saying we wanted to be like Norway or all the people who swore this didn't mean leaving the single market (only an idiot... quite) then changed tune.

    Boris is all leave leave leave, 31st of October, no deal blah blah but he's far more obsessed with image and legacy than TM I suspect. He absolutely will not be the guy to jump off the cliff, his ego won't be able to stand being in the history books as that guy.

    But it's fine, he'll come up with something, probably victim based, then brexiteers will swear up and down until they're red in the face that that's what you wanted all along.
     
  12. krooton

    Capodecina

    Joined: May 9, 2004

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    Location: Leafy outskirts of London

    So if it is going to take 20+ years to realise any benefit from Brexit, pretty much all the current over-60s (who apparently 70% of voted Leave) would never even benefit from it.

    Even weirder is that if their logic was so that their children and grandchildren would benefit instead, they would be voting against the wishes of their children/grandchildren as those under-35 had more votes to Remain.

    It is almost like they are saying "I know what is better for you, and if I am wrong, well I won't be around to find out."
     
  13. doodah

    Capodecina

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    Location: London

    Farage made them look fools, Boris will do the same but let them down in their own special and palatable way - makes sense.
     
  14. String

    Capodecina

    Joined: Jan 6, 2013

    Posts: 11,442

    It's not, but similar. It has a lot more quotes. I'll keep digging. :)
     
  15. Mr Jack

    Capodecina

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    Location: Kiel, Germany

    Boris is all "leave leave leave" because he thinks it's the best choice to advance Boris. If he thought being all "remain remain remain" would get him into Number 10; he'd be that instead. I'm pretty sure he intended to lose the referendum.
     
  16. JeditOjanen

    Mobster

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    He absolutely did. His intention was to be the opposition to Cameron, nothing more.
     
  17. matt100

    Capodecina

    Joined: Jul 31, 2004

    Posts: 11,147

    Location: Salisbury

    24th of June 2016..

    [​IMG]

    Definitely YAAAAAAAY we won! Now here's my plan we must get started on XYZ to implement not the promises I made but at least the well thought out ideas and plans I have just spent months sharing that I feel so passionately about.

    Absolutely not **** **** **** what now? Best scarper.

    EDIT: From his statement.. fascinating :)

    Didn't age well did it... Anyway, 31st of October come hell or high water?

    Always a good idea to check the odds, people whose business it is to make money from uncertainty saying best put your money on not leaving in 2019 and leaving with a deal.
     
    Last edited: Jun 18, 2019
  18. Dj_Jestar

    Caporegime

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  19. Murphy

    Wise Guy

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    Posts: 1,452

    There's so many to choose from and I'll stop making suggestions after this, but this one? :)

     
  20. String

    Capodecina

    Joined: Jan 6, 2013

    Posts: 11,442

    @Murphy that's the one!

    Cheers :)