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Brexit Discussion

Discussion in 'Speaker's Corner' started by FrenchTart, Sep 11, 2016.

  1. garnett

    Mobster

    Joined: Mar 25, 2008

    Posts: 4,004

    They've already said what will happen...

    Brexiteers all concede that the moment after we leave with no deal (and Brexiteers share a nanosecond of orgasmic sovereign freedom) straightaway the UK needs to turn back to the EU and ask about a trade deal.

    ... And the EU have said, over and over, their response will be, "Yes absolutely. You can have one...

    "...You just need to meet your obligations on the £39bn, the GFA, and EU citizen rights first..."

    And remember at that point, when, to a simple observer it might look like we're in the same mess we're in now, in actuality, it'll be worse. We'll have given up all the leverage we had as part of the UK's privileged EU membership+++ position.
     
  2. VincentHanna

    Capodecina

    Joined: Jul 30, 2013

    Posts: 17,723

    They'll be banging on about German cars next, even though Mercedes, BMW and VAG have already re-targeted other markets and the UK is dropping down in terms of importance.

    For instance, Mercedes sales decreased by 7% in the UK between 2017 and 2018, but they grew their market in Spain, Germany and China.
    https://www.daimler.com/investors/key-figures/major-markets/
     
  3. Tony Edwards

    Wise Guy

    Joined: Feb 4, 2018

    Posts: 2,387

    Ah here we go. This must be the latest line put forward in the echo chamber.
    No negotiations and they are desperate for the money and will snatch a new deal out of our hands at the 11th hour. Good old Boris will sort it with Farages help.
     
  4. inogen

    Mobster

    Joined: Jul 19, 2009

    Posts: 3,123

    Yeah, One of Johnson's advisors was on Newsnight last night saying the same line. Even backed it up with "the German motor industry...", it's like Groundhog day.
     
  5. BowdonUK

    Wise Guy

    Joined: Jan 17, 2016

    Posts: 2,118

    I don't know why you belittle your points with sweeping generalisations.

    It seems anyone who merely questions the narrative put forward by the media is living in an echo chamber according to you?
     
  6. BowdonUK

    Wise Guy

    Joined: Jan 17, 2016

    Posts: 2,118

    Correct me if I'm wrong. But wasn't David Davis removed from being the Brexit secretary? Any pretense of negotiation was for show as May removed Davis and put forward her own unnegotiated deal to the EU.

    As I said earlier, the EU offered us a free trade deal and we could have built on that. But no, May give them her complex deal that in the fine print meant the EU could control when we fully left. Why wouldn't the EU take her deal and hang on for dear life? That's what they are doing now. They will keep doing that until they realise that deal is void.

    I'm still not confident we'll leave on this October 31st date. I predict there will be a general election. There are 2 issues going on at the same time. The EU future deal, and the intransigence of the British parliament to back anything.
     
  7. b0rn2sk8

    Mobster

    Joined: Mar 9, 2003

    Posts: 4,158

    He resigned over Mays plan for the future relationship.
     
  8. VincentHanna

    Capodecina

    Joined: Jul 30, 2013

    Posts: 17,723

    I'll correct you

    David Davis was made Brexit secrtary in July 2016 and resigned 2 years later.

    Dominic Raab was put in charge in July. Raab resigned in November 2018

    It was rumoured that Dominic Raab was called 'The Turnip' in Brussels because he was ****.
     
  9. Murphy

    Wise Guy

    Joined: Sep 16, 2018

    Posts: 1,425

    No they're not, to even think that just demonstrates a utter lack of understand, £39bn makes up something like 0.6% of their annual revenue and it's an investment budget.

    This is a fact that's been repeated ad nauseam so why is it leave supporters seem so incapable of accepting it?
     
  10. BowdonUK

    Wise Guy

    Joined: Jan 17, 2016

    Posts: 2,118

    I stand corrected on that point :)
     
  11. JeditOjanen

    Mobster

    Joined: Feb 7, 2011

    Posts: 4,113

    Hunt's line on "walking away from the table" is that he'll preserve the Union rather than preserve Brexit, and that if it's no deal or no Brexit then we're staying in the EU. If the media have not reported on this, it's because they are desperate to support Boris by telling everyone that he will give us No Deal at all costs.
     
  12. garnett

    Mobster

    Joined: Mar 25, 2008

    Posts: 4,004

    There's plenty of other statements for you to see how, after each round, both Davis and Raab said how much negotiating had got done, and how much progress had been made.

    I've not seen anything to suggest otherwise? Can you evidence your counter narrative at all?

    "May give them her complex deal" - this reads exactly how the pro-Brexit rags wanted their audiences to be left thinking.

    The common Brexiteer Demagogues' meme for the targets of their con-job, of, "There's no need to over-think it. Take it from us that it's easy" Brexit-means-Brexit, Leave-means-Leave, Let us do your thinking for you."

    Brexit is complicated. There's no getting around it. Simple solutions appeal to simple minds (and I expect this is a big factor in the appeal of "Just walk away" - the fact the utterance means an end to the speaker having to think about the problem).

    The idea that May somehow tried to dupe us into agreeing to be bound by the EU is ludicrous.

    Even ardent Brexiteers recognise theres no real getting away from the backstop. Why do you think Ress Mogg voted for May's Deal? Do you think he was complicit in your "Remainer Conspiracy"?
     
  13. Rilot

    Don

    Joined: Oct 18, 2002

    Posts: 19,420

    Location: Wargrave, UK

    Because £39bn is an astronomical amount of money when you apply it to back-of-a-fag-packet economics that people seem to use to justify why we shouldn't pay it.

    When considering national budgets and deficits it's akin to you or I deciding whether to pay for a Mars bar or not. The shop keeper isn't really going to notice the lack of 80p, and the amount is small enough that in the context of our own income is easily affordable. However, the damage done to our standing with the shopkeeper and our overall prospects once arrested in incalculable.
     
  14. BowdonUK

    Wise Guy

    Joined: Jan 17, 2016

    Posts: 2,118

    It's observational. When there are 3 Brexit secretaries put in charge and 2 resign and the other votes against the deal he's supposed to be proposing to parliament then its fairly obvious that none of them agreed with the final deal that was put to the EU. The job of the Brexit secretary was to make the deal. Instead May went over there heads and formed her own deal that was a surprise to many at the Chequers meeting.

    I think it comes down to that some people are believing the May's incompetitance line, while others are questioning how she suddenly become incompetant.

    But the EU as said in the event of a no deal that there will be other solutions. So the question becomes, what are these other solutions? Aren't you interested in knowing what these other solutions are?

    It's not a Remainer conspiracy. It's a government conspiracy. I'm sure you'll be telling me the government as never conspired against anything in its life.

    This is the problem about the Brexit debate. The government wants people to be arguing between ourselves because it distracts us from asking important questions of them. The government hasn't been honest with the people from the very start. If it had been honest then the remain position would have won. I feel as much let down by the remain side as I do the leave side when it comes to the referendum.
     
  15. The Funktopus

    Mobster

    Joined: Aug 14, 2008

    Posts: 3,347

    Location: LNG/C Sean Spirit

    Hate to quote myself, but this is what I posted last year when the poker comparisons were kicking about...

     
  16. do_ron_ron

    Sgarrista

    Joined: Oct 23, 2002

    Posts: 8,633

    There was a picture in here about the type of deals on offer from the EU and which deals were ruled out by May's red lines. Remember May started the negotiations with "We will not accept this and this and ....". So we got the deal based on what could be achieved with the red lines. It is not up to the EU to "take her deal and hang on for dear life". It is up to the UK Parliament to accept May's deal because they are sovereign and that is where the plan has failed not in the EU.
     
  17. Irish_Tom

    Capodecina

    Joined: Oct 18, 2002

    Posts: 12,038

    The EU had/has a range of measures that are meant to mitigate the worst effects from a no-deal Brexit including the reciprocal arrangements for trucks to continue operating in the UK and the EU; employing more customs staff etc. None of them are meant to be long-term solutions.

    If they are required, no doubt leavers will claim No Deal wasn’t as bad as predicted by remoaners, despite the emergency measures, just like the additional rounds of QE that were required since the referendum…
     
  18. do_ron_ron

    Sgarrista

    Joined: Oct 23, 2002

    Posts: 8,633

    Really? In the event of a No Deal we revert to WTO terms and hard borders in Ireland. I have never heard of these 'other solutions' you have mentioned.
    If we fail with the WA we will not be able to start FTA's with the EU. The same old problem brought on by May's red lines ...... as has been the case for three years. It will not change with Johnston or Hunt. I heard from the Europe correspondent on the BBC last night that Johnston is viewed with contempt after his stint as FS yet he is claiming he will magically persuade them to change the WA.
     
  19. BowdonUK

    Wise Guy

    Joined: Jan 17, 2016

    Posts: 2,118

    I would be very surprised if Boris or Hunt take us out with no deal. Mainly I think because there is no plan for what happens after we enter WTO rules. It was interesting in the BBC debate that when the question was put to Boris about his commitment to leave on October 31st it suddenly become an aspiration. Interestingly Hunt came out and said he is leaving on that date, though I'd be even more surprised if he did.

    As far as I'm away, I maybe wrong, but I think the backstop itself is only supposed to be temporary until a full deal is done.

    The biggest take-away from all this for me as been the complete lack of a plan. If the government actually had deals lined up in the event of a no deal it would at least be a small comfort for the journey we're about to embark on. But so far unless we get this big deal with the US then what else is there?

    I have to say after listening to both Boris and Hunts interviews and hustings so far, the bumbling tones of Boris is starting to get on my nerves. He never answers a difficult question. Maybe he's too concerned with how the answer would be perceived. But he should at least say what he believes in. The issue over this secret recording is a perfect example. I listened to him on LBC this morning and he wouldnt say anything about it. He must have known he'd be asked about it, so why didnt he have some pre-planned answer to at least reply a little instead of trying to shut the whole subject down? Hunt is looking more impressive as the days go on. He at least seems to be from the same planet we're on.
     
  20. Freakbro

    Capodecina

    Joined: Jul 29, 2010

    Posts: 14,638

    Location: Lincs

    So are you trying to claim that the whole 558 page document that covers every aspect of our withdrawing from the union in impenetrable legalise was written (in the metaphorical sense) by Theresa May....with no input from anyone else.

    .


    .


    LOL