Chances of UKIP winning General Election?

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Evangelion said:
The GE.



You must be kidding. Firstly, statistics from the last GE are not 'ancient.' Secondly, statistics from the last GE are entirely relevant to the next GE, particularly when the party in question has never won a seat in the British parliament and never received more than 3.1% of the vote.

So again: how does Farage intend to raise his party's share of the GE vote to a substantial percentage? He needs at least an extra 17% on the last result in order to be competitive. Where's that 17% coming from?
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The extra 17% will come from:confused: Well i suspect the white middle class and the elderly.
 
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/byelection/10879200/Newark-by-election-2014-result.html

So UKIP didn't win the Newark by-election but did manage to halve the Conservative's majority. In a way, we shouldn't be surprised by this - Newark is the 44th safest seat for the Conservatives but what is surprising is the effort the Tories felt they had to put in to secure the seat; sending ministers and even the Prime Minister on the campaign trail in Newark. Obviously the threat from UKIP is being treated very seriously by the establishment.
 
scorza said:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/byelection/10879200/Newark-by-election-2014-result.html

So UKIP didn't win the Newark by-election but did manage to halve the Conservative's majority. In a way, we shouldn't be surprised by this - Newark is the 44th safest seat for the Conservatives but what is surprising is the effort the Tories felt they had to put in to secure the seat; sending ministers and even the Prime Minister on the campaign trail in Newark. Obviously the threat from UKIP is being treated very seriously by the establishment.
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Yep, made sure I went and voted yesterday and yes there was a big cons effort. It's because they know people are all too easy to jump on the ukip wagon. Cons got 45%, ukip 26%, Labour 18%. So still, ukip down in the Labour region for proportion of votes. Any idea that ukip get anywhere near a win this coming GE is fantasy land for some.
 
Evangelion said:
No. It won't. If Farage thinks he can get an extra 17% in the next general election after completely failing to win a single seat in the past 2 decades, he needs a quiet room with well padded surfaces.
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I think it will depend on the Governments response to the electorate over immigration, the public have just fired a warning shot across their bows, ignore at their peril.
 
spankingtexan said:
I think it will depend on the Governments response to the electorate over immigration, the public have just fired a warning shot across their bows, ignore at their peril.
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How exactly should the government be responding to immigration? considering they have already reduced it by more than UKIP promised to in their 2010 manifesto?

Immigration/EU are UKIPs only play and that's only because they talk about them so much that people don't realise they are offering nothing that the tories aren't, it's like a one trick horse that doesn't even do anything the reular horses don't lol.
 
ubersonic said:
How exactly should the government be responding to immigration? considering they have already reduced it by more than UKIP promised to in their 2010 manifesto?

Immigration/EU are UKIPs only play and that's only because they talk about them so much that people don't realise they are offering nothing that the tories aren't, it's like a one trick horse that doesn't even do anything the reular horses don't lol.
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And it's this kind of ignorant attitude that will only fuel further support for UKIP. Do you suggest the Government should continue with current immigration polices? I repeat my last post.
 
Energize said:
There seems to be a couple of key points a lot of you are missing.

Turnout doesn't matter, what matters is the % of the turnout a party gets.

The last GE was 4 years ago, the European Elections were last month. Which election is more relevant to today do you think?

Using ancient statistics as a predictor of next years GE is just bizarre.
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Serious?
 
scorza said:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/byelection/10879200/Newark-by-election-2014-result.html

So UKIP didn't win the Newark by-election but did manage to halve the Conservative's majority. In a way, we shouldn't be surprised by this - Newark is the 44th safest seat for the Conservatives but what is surprising is the effort the Tories felt they had to put in to secure the seat; sending ministers and even the Prime Minister on the campaign trail in Newark. Obviously the threat from UKIP is being treated very seriously by the establishment.
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One of the comments from the article is worth a repost:

"At a 60% drop in vote, the Tories have just had the largest percentage drop of any party in any by-election in UK voting history"

And that's with, as far as I can tell, the conservative war machine at Defcon 1.
 
[FnG]magnolia;26411358 said:
No they haven't. Some of them - but not very many - voted for UKIP who once again were not able to land an actual seat.
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UKIP have just won the EU elections, had a very good show in the Local Elections and just came second in a by-election. Hopelessly flailing against the inevitable is not going to change the direction of politics in this country; they will win some seats in the GE. Probably no more than a handful, but the impact will be immense all the same.
 
Tom_ed1987 said:
"At a 60% drop in vote, the Tories have just had the largest percentage drop of any party in any by-election in UK voting history"
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Protest voting can cause a lot of issue in by-elections because the public know by-elections are worthless. Lets just hope they don't cause a Labour landslide in the general election like their predecessors did in 1997...
 
Evangelion said:
'We scored a token victory in the EUP but failed to gain a single seat in the UK, ignore us at your peril!'

Righto.
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I don't think anyone is claiming UKIP will rampage all across the country and take seats, they probably won't take a single seat.

But they just won 25.91% in a Parliamentary Election, so they will be affecting the voting dynamics quite a lot, taking votes from other parties. The other parties do have do worry about it.
 
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