I remember writing a thread here many years ago querying why home advantage was such a factor, as I never really understood it and felt that professional teams should not be influenced by it as much. i.e. how much is down to:
- Crowd boosting the team
- Crowd influencing officials
- Players having better knowledge of the pitch dimensions, weather conditions etc (given they vary between stadia, e.g. Stoke)
- Players generally feeling more comfortable (normal dressing room etc)
With games behind closed doors, the first two are eliminated from the equation. So it will be interesting to see how this pans out.
As for the poll it's a shame the options aren't a bit more granular in the middle section; 0-20 and 81-100 are outliers that simply won't happen, 61-80 extremely unlikely, so we all know it will be either 21-40 or 41-60 it's a shame that's not broken up by 10% increments instead of 20.
To weigh this up properly I think one needs to look at the remaining fixtures, I think an important factor is how many times weaker teams are playing at home against strong opposition meaning it is unlikely they will win.
It's worth noting if you go by bookmaker odds that for English matches the draw is nearly always below 33% chance (sometimes you will see it in corrupt leagues like Italy). In very evenly balanced matches it's usually around 36% chance for home/away win and 29% chance for a draw.