Poll: Exit Poll: UK General Election 2017 - Results discussion and OcUK Exit Poll - Closing 8th July

Exit poll: Who did you vote for?

  • Conservatives

    Votes: 302 27.5%
  • Labour

    Votes: 577 52.6%
  • Liberal Democrats

    Votes: 104 9.5%
  • Green

    Votes: 13 1.2%
  • UKIP

    Votes: 19 1.7%
  • Scottish National Party

    Votes: 30 2.7%
  • Plaid Cymru

    Votes: 6 0.5%
  • Other

    Votes: 46 4.2%

  • Total voters
    1,097
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Wow at Tim Farron quiting because he's likely a homophobe. Get Swinson in already (I would be rather disappointed if they shoved another out of touch old man as leader, as much as i like Vince Cable, he's just too bloody old).
 
I went back and found the link and pdf, I coudnt find anything on methodology beyond its a big survey and/or confidence interval's etc.

I'd love to believe people with higher educational levels are more Labour than low (it would explain the household budget idiocy of Austerity) but I need a bit more to go on...

The link suggests it's not as clear cut for education, as it may be a factor of age as well, hence not commenting on that.
 
The first sentence is a fact based on the table.

The second sentence is a reasonable assumption due to the skew in the number towards non working people voting labour and therefore likely to be attracted by more state help as would lower paid.

Which part don't you understand?

So that accounts for some of the 18-19 year old age group, what about the rest of the age groups?
 
Wow at Tim Farron quiting because he's likely a homophobe.

Even as a gay person I think the Tim farron thing was blown way out of proportion ... And the gays I knew didn't see it as an issue.

He's entitled to his beliefs .... And he still had a good track record on his voting on equality. I'd only question his religion if it interfered with his duties on voting for equality laws. I think he did well to keep it separate.

Edit: just read he abstained on same sex marriage ...
 
Even as a gay person I think the Tim Darrin thing was blown way out of proportion ... And the gays I knew didn't see it as an issue.

He's entitled to his beliefs .... And he still had a good track record on his voting on equality. I'd only question his religion if it interfered with his duties on voting for equality laws. I think he did well to keep it separate.

Welp, that's no solace for a liberal party now is it, let alone the leader of it.
 
Labour's manifesto wasn't about taxing the rich to give an income to the perennially unemployed. It was about tackling low-pay, the employers that aren't paying a fraction of what it actually costs to live, and exploitative practices.

Some of those currently major players in Labour (John McDonnell for instance) have articulated desires for significant shake up of council tax and inheritance tax which their manifesto strongly suggests they would implement and expand on which would "soak up" riches from even those moderately well off to subsidise those perennially going nowhere. While the full implication was scaled back in their most recent revision of the manifesto it would be naive to think if given a chance they wouldn't push towards that.

Beneath a veneer of reasonable sounding premises their manifesto has some significant stings in the tail.
 
I dunno - if you control for area then I wouldn't be too surprised to see say working Tories earning more on average than working Labour voters

That's going to be largely covered by the socioeconomic grade.

As noted at the start of the campaign, the class divide in British politics seems to have closed and it is no longer a very good indicator of voting intention. Despite dramatic voter movements towards Labour over the past few weeks this theme has held reasonably consistent: Labour is now 4% behind amongst ABC1 voters and 2% behind amongst C2DE voters.

The picture is a bit more mixed if we split this out further, with Labour doing best amongst DE voters (semi-skilled and unskilled manual occupations, unemployed people and those in the lowest grade occupations) and the Tories doing best amongst C2 voters (skilled manual occupations).

Class-01.png


Which shows marginally more popularity for labour in the C2DE category. That said you could argue more of the labour vote/social democrat vote was taken up by the Lib Dems in the ABC1 group, hence no change in conservative popularity overall.
 
That's going to be largely covered by the socioeconomic grade.

no, it is going to be covered by income:

msXWVat.png


also interesting to see the increase in Lib Dem voters as education level increases :p

YfRchNJ.png


(though I think age is likely a confounder in both cases)
 
I can't interpret Farron's resignation in any other way than he feels so strongly against gay sex due to his strongly held beliefs that he felt hypocritical in not opposing gay marriage and gay relations in this country.

In which case I'm glad he's stepping down, good riddance if he felt like his own internal struggles with other people's business were stopping him doing a public service. I was just starting to think he was becoming a decent leader, but interested to see who else will step forward now.
 
Might be better to reference actual voter survey data then, rather than opinion poll data:

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/06/13/how-britain-voted-2017-general-election/

After all, it's believing those opinion polls that got the Tories into the mess of calling a snap election in the first place.

they don't seem to have a breakdown by income though...

though do you really thing that people didn't change their minds through that disastrous campaign? looking back Yougov seemed to be on point re: their reports of the gap narrowing up until they almost predicted the result but then bottled it at the last moment and give the tories a bigger lead
 
no, it is going to be covered by income:

msXWVat.png


also interesting to see the increase in Lib Dem voters as education level increases :p

YfRchNJ.png


(though I think age is likely a confounder in both cases)

That would help too. It would be interesting to see if/how much they have changed - they're intentions not how people voted, which I guess explains such low labour support in both charts.
 
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