Poll: Exit Poll: UK General Election 2017 - Results discussion and OcUK Exit Poll - Closing 8th July

[robfosters]

Has it?

The survation poll was close to the exit poll.......

I'm talking about bookie odds.

 

[wildman]

Isn't it amazing how nearly all recent elections or referendums have gone completely against the odds?

but have they ? or has it just been a case of the media not really understanding or having the pulse on what is really going on ? or simply not prepared to accept something different and sticking to their archaic modelling / simulations ?

 

[D.P.]

YouGov's model has been very accurate so far, if anything slightly underestimating labour. Their final seat prediction had only 302 seats for the Tories.

On the flip side the early seats potentially show a very slight preference to the Tories compared to the exit poll

 

[h4rm0ny]

flicking through bbc and c4 and i have to say i think david mitchells going to have a stroke over brexit at the rate he's going.

I think Nuttall's been having a stroke about Brexit for a while, now.

 

[LOAM]

Its not a win, its a hold. Distinct difference, somewhat important in FPTP.

Its the swings though, if labour voters are up 7-10% then marginals targeted by conservative will remain labour.

 

[StriderX]

but have they ? or has it just been a case of the media not really understanding or having the pulse on what is really going on ? or simply not prepared to accept something different and sticking to their archaic modelling / simulations ?

Or maybe no education on statistics, never show a poll without margins, its not smart.

 

[muon]

Been away for 30 mins. I see odds for a majority has drifted.

What's happened?

 

[LOAM]

Darlington, labour hold. Was a conservative target. Massive blow for May

 

[Rroff]

No cheers for UKIP again lol.

 

[Uther]

Labour hold Darlington!

 

[StriderX]

Very awkward night. Aww, she looks so pleased .

 

[wildman]

Darlington, labour hold. Was a conservative target.

first key indicator

 

[kieran_read]

I'm finding all this rather amusing, May ballsed it up, and while Labour have a good chance the markets have ballsed up at the prospect of it all.

 

[Freakbro]

*phew* at Darlington

 

[Raggs]

George Osborne is proper sticking the knife in on ITV worst manifesto ever

 

[Glaucus]

if exit polls are right, its the best we could realistically have hoped for.
Still a shower of **** though.

trouble is I cant see how we will ever get proper voting and parliament reform.

 

[balky12]

John Stevens of the DM is saying Labour could well take Canterbury and Thurrock!

Thurrock doesn't surprise me. As people move out of London places like Hornchurch/ Upminster / gidea park are all Tory strongholds (and expensive places!!!) so people from inner London are settling in these places as prices push people further afield.

 

[stewski]

The universal silences for UKIP results announcements are spooky and not something I remember for parties outside the top two.

 

[Zefan]

trouble is I cant see how we will ever get proper voting and parliament reform.

If somehow we do end up with Labour in power, or in the government that come in 2022, I expect much more engagement from younger voters in the future, even more so due to the plans to reduce the minimum voting age to 16. This may not create a massive change in itself, but it may add to the general "reform" picture.

 

[Nitefly]

More white lines on that map for Vine to hoover.