I can't help but think that none of the above analysis are as complete as they should be.
Actual comparison costs for running a car should include:
- Cost to buy
- Depreciation
- Servicing
- Insurance
- Opportunity cost
Let me give a slightly more complete view on the costs, using Parkers for technical data and estimated costs s/h. Link here:
http://parkers.co.uk/choosing/carreviews/review.aspx?model_id=78&page=8
If you had bought a 530 SE new in 2003, the petrol would have cost £29395, the diesel £29400.
I'm unaware of BMW servicing costs, the insurance for the petrol was 17, the diesel 15. Opportunity cost between the two cars is negligible in the first 3 years, but will impact on the second.
Running costs for say 15,000 miles per year and assuming 95p/ltr would be Diesel = £1589 and Petrol = £2136, thus saving £547 per annum.
More interesting is the values after 3 and 6 years:
@3 years, Diesel cost to buy = £17025, Petrol = £14730
@6 years, Diesel cost to buy = £8935, Petrol = £9185
(note these costs are based on Independant dealer estimates)
Thus actual running costs would be:
First 3 years:
Diesel
Depreciation £12375
Fuel £4767
Total £17142
Petrol:
Depreciation £14670
Fuel £6408
Total £21078
Savings during first 3 years for the diesel = £3936 plus reduced insurance costs
Second 3 years:
Diesel
Depreciation £8089
Fuel £4767
Opportunity cost @ estimate of 4% = £275
Total £13131
Petrol:
Depreciation £5545
Fuel £6408
Total £11953
Savings during second 3 years for the Petrol = £1178, partly offset by more expensive insurance costs.
So in summary, on the example above, it depends.
In the first three years, the diesel is clearly cheaper to run.
In the second three years, the petrol is cheaper to run.
Clearly that does also depend however on the cost of servicing, the 2 insurance groups difference and the number of miles.
Just goes to show that real estimates are quite difficult to prepare and really should be done on a case by case basis.