Gaze Into Your Crystal Ball - [ Moores Law Examined ]

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How long do you think this trend will continue?

Moore's law describes a long-term trend in the history of computing hardware. The number of transistors that can be placed inexpensively on an integrated circuit doubles approximately every two years.[note 1] This trend has continued for more than half a century and is expected to continue until at least 2015 or 2020.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Transistor_Count_and_Moore's_Law_-_2011.svg

Transistor_Count_and_Moore%27s_Law_-_2011.svg


We have seen such exponential growth in other areas of computing as well like harddrive space for example:

there is a very strong exponential correlation in space/cost ratio (r=0.9916). Over the last 30 years, space per unit cost has doubled roughly every 14 months (increasing by an order of magnitude every 48 months). The regression equation is given by:
http://www.mkomo.com/cost-per-gigabyte

hd-cost-graph.png

Forty years after the publication of his law, which states that transistor density on integrated circuits doubles about every two years, Moore said this morning: "It can't continue forever. The nature of exponentials is that you push them out and eventually disaster happens.
http://news.techworld.com/operating-systems/3477/moores-law-is-dead-says-gordon-moore/

Dead according to the creator of the law itself!
 
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if new technologies are introduced then it'll probably continue until 2020ish but we're gonna hit an absolute limit sometime. it'll be an interesting day
 
Soldato
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well of course it wont carry on forever, exponential growth cannot continue forever in a finite world. this is why there is so much research into alternative,ore heat resilient materials to silicon in the short term (diamond and graphene are strong candidates to replace silicone in the future) and quantum computing in the long term.

i'm very happy to be proved wrong here, but i remember from somewhere that a diamond processor was either made or theorised that could hit 300Ghz, a graphene one has definitly been made that can hit 10Ghz and a non programmable quantum computer has been made that can do optimisation (whatever that means besides the obvious) which you could buy for the tiny sum of $10mil
 
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Diamond is intresting.
Florida-based company Gemesis springs to mind.
thay can make real gem quality diamonds for as little as US $5 using heat and pressure.
And anouther company Apollo Diamond, use a different process that makes diamonds using a plasma-based diffusion method.

great things to come me thinks.
 
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if new technologies are introduced then it'll probably continue until 2020ish but we're gonna hit an absolute limit sometime. it'll be an interesting day
I concur

well of course it wont carry on forever, exponential growth cannot continue forever in a finite world. this is why there is so much research into alternative,ore heat resilient materials to silicon in the short term (diamond and graphene are strong candidates to replace silicone in the future) and quantum computing in the long term.

i'm very happy to be proved wrong here, but i remember from somewhere that a diamond processor was either made or theorised that could hit 300Ghz, a graphene one has definitly been made that can hit 10Ghz and a non programmable quantum computer has been made that can do optimisation (whatever that means besides the obvious) which you could buy for the tiny sum of $10mil

Haha only £6,000,000. Not too shabby.

What are you bumping this for?

Is there a question you want answered?

If you read the post carefully, you would see that I am looking for opinions.
 
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