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General Election 2015

Discussion in 'Speaker's Corner' started by Stretch, Jan 5, 2015.

  1. Stretch

    Capodecina

    Joined: Feb 14, 2004

    Posts: 11,696

    Location: Peoples Republic of Histonia, Cambridge

    This one actually looks quite exciting.

    I'm still not decided who to vote for, but I do have serious issues with Ed becoming PM, regardless of how good/bad labour party policy is.

    Highlights look like being.

    • Will the Tories relative economic success be enough to hold power, and are the polls off like they were in 92?
    • Can UKIPs recent popularity be converted into seats?
    • Will the SNP wipe out Labour in Scotland?
    • Will other "fringe" parties see their vote share rise significantly?
    • Are the Lib Dems a spent force in UK politics?
    • Is any party convincing enough to win an outright majority?
    • Will a hung parliament lead to radical deal brokering over big issues such as Europe, Devolution, Electoral System, Nuclear Weapons etc.

    The bookies and political commentators are being unusually coy. Frankly, anything could happen.
     
    Last edited: Jan 7, 2015
  2. The-Plethora

    Gangster

    Joined: Mar 17, 2009

    Posts: 405

    If anyone votes Labour after the last time they personally deserve every bit of misery it can possibly bring, other people however don't.
     
  3. Judgeneo

    Capodecina

    Joined: May 15, 2010

    Posts: 10,019

    Location: Out of Coventry

    I'm guessing it will be a hung paliamant, but who will hold sway this time around is anyones guess. The SNP, UKIP, and Lib Dems all have a chance of being in a colilition by the end of the year.
     
  4. Xordium

    Capodecina

    Joined: Apr 8, 2009

    Posts: 12,702

    Now I am not a Labour supporter but even I can see that they did a great deal of good when they were in power particularly at the start and before Brown got too big for his boots. The same for the Tories before - they did a lot of good before again someone got too big for their boots.

    I find all your kind of polarising quite ironic when there is very little difference between Labour, Conservative and Liberal Democrats. Same type of person, same supporting interests, same schooling. The days where parties stood for something and then we chose the party that we thought represented our interests has long gone. Now the parties shape themselves to whatever will get them elected and therefore there is very little to chose between them and they will all most likely do the same thing.

    Choosing a party based upon their actual promises also seems to be pointless because there is no measure or stipulation they should keep their promises.

    In answer to the OP then:

    Will the Tories relative economic success be enough to hold power, and are the polls off like they were in 92? - I don't think they've done anything to warrant any claim they have achieved much especially when they misrepresented the state of the country they took over

    Can UKIPs recent popularity be converted into seats? - My understanding is that interest in them is on the decline and therefore I don't expect a great deal of success when people get the message that the party is most likely to sting the people who are voting for them

    Will the SNP wipe out Labour in Scotland? - Yes, I see Labour being a spent force in Scotland.

    Will other "fringe" parties see their vote share rise significantly? - I think there will be some rises mainly from the Lib Dem votes but nothing substantial or significant.

    Are the Lib Dems a spent force in UK politics? - For now yes this coalition has done them no favours. They seem to give ground and gain very little.

    Is any party convincing enough to win an outright majority? - No, I don't think there will be.

    Will a hung parliament lead to radical deal brokering over big issues such as Europe, Devolution, Electoral System, Nuclear Weapons etc. - Yes, but the deal brokering will how much further they can get their snouts in the trough than in the interests of the public.
     
    Last edited: Jan 6, 2015
  5. Freakbro

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    Joined: Jul 29, 2010

    Posts: 16,442

    Location: Lincs

    Well, for the first time in my life I am unsure if I will even vote - and I'm even an advocate for compulsary voting!

    I voted Labour back in the 90's to get the Tories out and Lib Dems ever since, which was always a 'wasted' vote in this true blue area I live in, but now, I know of staunch anti-Conservatives even talking about voting Conservative just to keep UKIP out around here!

    Though as an aside, I saw the funniest thing yesterday, how on earth these politicians can keep a straight face when spouting their diatribe, Ed Balls attacking the Conservatives on their failure to eradicate the deficit as they promised, and that Labour unfortunately would have to implement budget cuts due to the large deficit the Tories would leave them....:D:D:D

    I also think global capitalism, where big money is pulling a lot of the strings in power, has been another driving force in the homogenisation of the political classes.
     
    Last edited: Jan 6, 2015
  6. Tunney

    Capodecina

    Joined: Oct 11, 2004

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    Location: London

    Relative to who? Greece and Spain?
     
  7. Xordium

    Capodecina

    Joined: Apr 8, 2009

    Posts: 12,702

    Yes I agree, I wonder whether part of the original removal of the crown's interference and the formation of the Lords was to remove some of the influence of the elite over the process. I wish we could remove lobbying altogether because it just means the vocal and the already fortunate get all the results in their favour and therefore we get what we have now a rising gap between the haves and havenots.
     
  8. Hagar

    Sgarrista

    Joined: Mar 1, 2010

    Posts: 7,775

    Location: Prev. Nkata Cheshire

    It is going to be a long four months. However most people who will vote will have already made up their minds. A very small percentage will wait until closer to the polls to decide and for the people who do not vote, who cares.

    The likelihood of a hung parliament will mean that no one party will deliver it's manifesto in full.
     
  9. Uther

    Capodecina

    Joined: Jun 16, 2005

    Posts: 11,229

    Hung parliament, and they will make deals to cobble something together, that nobody will be very happy about I suspect.
    I don't think Labour did a great job, I certainly think the Conservatives are doing a great deal of damage, the Lib Dems are a complete waste of time. SNP? Scotland centric. UKIP?
    I fear for the future personally, and think the next few years are going to be very rocky.
     
  10. The-Plethora

    Gangster

    Joined: Mar 17, 2009

    Posts: 405

    I certainly agree that the Cons are far from perfect either and I don't trust for a second that we will ever get a vote on staying in the EU or not. David Cameron will do as he says seek to renegotiate ties with Europe before putting it to a a vote.

    He will then say he has renegotiated ties (in whatever small victory) and there will then be no vote on the matter, I also am very wary on where they are heading on the NHS but I also look a their successes, 1.75 million more people in work, a much better economy and paying our debts back to secure a stable future and the capping of benefits so that work pays.

    Then I look back at the last labour government... taking the country to the brink of financial disaster, spending way beyond our means, leaving a note saying there is no money left, selling off gold assets when it was priced low, an illegal war in iraq from a man who should be facing war crimes, Len McLusky of unites clear influence over the party, increased immigration and actually going to these countries to get people in, mismanagement of benefits, burying "bad news" on September 11th 2001 to name just a few...
     
    Last edited: Jan 6, 2015
  11. Xordium

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    So the general feeling is whoever gets in is going to shaft us and we can't trust the lot of them.
     
  12. Vonhelmet

    Caporegime

    Joined: Jun 28, 2005

    Posts: 48,109

    Location: On the hoods

    I was surprised to learn yesterday that my constituency is much more tightly contested than I thought. There was only 100 votes in it between Labour and the Conservatives last time round, on about 28k votes each. I'd have thought it would have been staunchly Labour, given it's a Northern ex-mining town. It has been Labour since the early 80s, but it's got extremely close of late.

    The problem for me is that I don't really trust either of the big parties. Economically I am more Conservative than Labour, but that doesn't mean I like what the Tories are currently doing... I'd vote green if it weren't a total waste of time.
     
  13. The-Plethora

    Gangster

    Joined: Mar 17, 2009

    Posts: 405

    I actually find election time quite interesting (sad I know :) ) but I always vote, even for that useless police comissioner thing, I even stay up to watch the votes come in :). it will be interesting to see what happens with UKIP this time, again with them some of the things I hear about the NHS concern me but at least with them I feel that the hugely important decesion about being in or out of the EU is put to the people, rather than a democratically elected by the people prime minister telling us if we are allowed to vote of not.

    Interestingly just heard on the radio that waiting times are at their worst for a decade, is that pure coincidence?, due to under investment or the huge population boom in the last 10 years?
    None of the main parties and by that I mean Labour or Cons (The lol dems are nothing at this point) can have much control over this due to the EU free movement of people.
     
    Last edited: Jan 6, 2015
  14. Stretch

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    There was a section on newsnight yesterday shortly after I created the thread which suggest it's very real possible that no two parties will be able to form a majority.

    I find it difficult to see how a 3-4 party coalition could find common ground, let alone a lasting agreement.

    2015 could be a year of two general elections.

    Yes, amongst others. Like France, Italy... much of Europe in fact.
     
  15. Freakbro

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    Hence why the No vote to the (ok, watered down) Proportional Representation proposal was the biggest political disaster this country has seen in years :(

    And to think it was based on the scaremongering that it would lead to more hung parliaments that would spell the end of the universe as we know it *sigh*
     
  16. gettothechopper

    Mobster

    Joined: Feb 22, 2010

    Posts: 4,087

    Location: Southampton

    I really dont know which way to go this time

    Was a LD voter - and liked the idea of them in the coalition - but now feel that they got too little for giving away alot, they didnt do a good enough job of keeping the Torys in check and managed to get all of their top people sidelinded or discredited within a few short months of the last election. (alot of this isnt necessarily their own fault they were very naive)

    Labour - have been a completely rubbish opposition, with no policies and nothing to offer, but if they could get rid of Ed and say even just one sensible thing and id vote for them, however this seems to be completely hilariously impossible - they picked the wrong Milliband IMO.

    Tories - they do seem to have got things back on track moneywise, but Im not sure where the line between "sorting out the economy" and "getting rid of the public services we dont like" is, and I dont trust them to stay on this side of it.

    UKIP - id vote to minimise their gains wherever possible

    greens - bit of a wasted vote and people dont seem that happy after brightons first green MP
     
  17. Mr Jack

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    Joined: May 19, 2004

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    Location: Kiel, Germany

    I think this is the least predictable election of recent times. The polls are likely to be a poor guide to the actual vote due to the rise of UKIP, SNP and the collapse of the Lib Dems. Meanwhile predicting the seats from the polls is going to be harder than ever as tactical voting shoring up the Lib Dems, the UKIP effect and the rise of SNP make uniform swing utterly meaningless.

    The stakes are also higher than usual: there is a huge gulf between Labour and the Conservatives whilst the possibility of the SNP entering a coalition gives flight to the spectre of the union being fatally wounded.

    The next five years will decide what kind of country the UK is going to become.
     
  18. Hagar

    Sgarrista

    Joined: Mar 1, 2010

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    Location: Prev. Nkata Cheshire

    Requires a 2/3 commons vote in favour of an early election.

    Or a no confidence vote by a simple majority and a failure within 14 days to find confidence in a new government arrangement (the opposition would have a chance to try and form a coalition or govern as a minority).
     
  19. Mr Jack

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    I'm putting personal views on the parties into a different post so as to separate it from general commentary on the election.

    Tories - they've been a disaster. Their economic incompetence has robbed this country of a sizeable chunk of growth after they took a growing economy and tanked it for three long years, even what growth they have managed has been achieved by inflating a fresh housing bubble. Even on their own terms they've failed miserably. In Europe they've repeatedly failed to demonstrate even a modicum of diplomatic competence and, as a result, our ability to influence and lead in Europe has been sadly diminished. Meanwhile they've launched an inhumane assault on the poorest and most vulnerable in our society and their idiotic approach to immigration has mostly targeted international students that we should be trying to attract. Five more years will do damage to the UK that will take generations to undo.

    Lib Dems - I've voted Lib Dem most of my life; never again. I don't oppose their entering a coalition with the Tories but everything they've done since condemns them: from tuition fees to the bedroom tax. Each party in coalition should be able to stand proudly next to the record in government; I cannot see how the Lib Dems can do that. Even what little they've squeaked through has mostly been bad policy: i.e. the triple lock and personal allowance rise.

    Labour - they've been a desperately ineffective opposition. They've let the Tories set the narrative with their ludicrous austerity drive and let the Tories spread a pack of lies about the deficit. They've failed to put forth a compelling alternative vision and failed to set their own narrative and put it forth effectively. Ed was the best of the bad bunch put forward for leadership. David, although he would likely be a more effective leader, offered nothing more or less than yet more Blair. Unfortunately, despite all this, they're the best of a bad bunch so they'll get my vote.

    UKIP - A depressing bunch of bigots. They offer no sensible solutions to any of the problems the country actually faces but instead blame everything on immigrants and pine for a "better time". I expect them to get a few seats but I think this election will turn out to be their high water mark.

    Green - A genuinely socialist and progressive alternative. If they play their cards right they could replace the Lib Dems as the major alternative to Labour. Unfortunately, they're still to riddled with woo and anti-science policies for my liking. I expect them to retain Brighton and possibly pick up a second seat.

    SNP - I used to have some respect for the SNP before the referendum despite their nationalist bent but they've revealed themselves to be a disgusting bunch of lying opportunists who will say and do any damn thing to achieve their aims. The thought of this dishonest bunch holding a significant number of seats gives me the fear.

    BNP - an utterly spend force. Most of their supporters have moved on to voting UKIP.
     
  20. Mr Jack

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    No, it doesn't. It requires a majority vote to repeal the stupid fixed term parliament bill.