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General Election 2015

Discussion in 'Speaker's Corner' started by Stretch, Jan 5, 2015.

  1. RDM

    Capodecina

    Joined: Feb 1, 2007

    Posts: 20,293

    AV wasn't a proportional representation proposal and can lead to even less proportional situations than FPTP.
     
  2. Mr Jack

    Capodecina

    Joined: May 19, 2004

    Posts: 17,975

    Location: Kiel, Germany

    Yup. I think it was a marginally better system than FPTP since it doesn't force you to reduce your entire political opinion to a single choice but it wasn't, in any sense, a PR system.
     
  3. The-Plethora

    Gangster

    Joined: Mar 17, 2009

    Posts: 403

    The greens 'could' stand to make some good gains this time but I don't see how a party that is anti nuclear is viable. We are already being told that within 2 years we could be looking at energy shortages but they are certainly more relevant then they have been.
     
  4. Rroff

    Man of Honour

    Joined: Oct 13, 2006

    Posts: 66,898

    Just going on the general mood and opinions around here but its kind of startling - if you just went by the people I socialise, work with, etc. and it was in any way representative of the mood of the nation then an eventual UKIP/Libdem coalition really isn't as far fetched as it sounds.

    No one will vote for Miliband and even Labour supporters don't like him and would be voting for Labour not him - which has the knock on effect of less long term Labour supporters even voting (and if they won't vote labour but want to vote they won't vote Tory).

    Long term Tory voters are dissatisfied and mixed between musing whether UKIP would really be any worse and not voting at all both of which play towards UKIP. (They won't vote Labour).

    A lot of young people who've never voted before seem to identify more with UKIP than the other mainstream parties.

    Some of the younger (not young) ones who have always voted Libdem are looking at UKIP. (This is a bit skewed as this area has always been strongly Libdem and won't be representative of how it is nationally).

    The rest who don't really have an affiliation with any party have tried voting for most of the other mainstream parties without seeing any result and now going to give either UKIP or Libdem a go.

    Whether nationally that would be enough to erode the mainstay voters of the 2 big parties though is another matter.
     
    Last edited: Jan 6, 2015
  5. Trifid

    Sgarrista

    Joined: Feb 18, 2006

    Posts: 8,224

    I'm placing my bet on the conservatives losing seats and labour losing seats (most of Scotland with a slight gain in England). UKIP will gain some seats but will have less then 10 in total.

    We could potentially see a labour/SNP/LD/SF/PC coalition. Imagine Ed Miliband as PM with Salmond as deputy...
     
  6. RDM

    Capodecina

    Joined: Feb 1, 2007

    Posts: 20,293

    The monotonicity criterion means that, for me, that marginal improvement wasn't worth the massive flaw.

    This I really cant understand. How on earth do you go from being a Lib Dem voter to a UKIP voter and still hold anything like the same political beliefs? They are effectively polar opposite parties.
     
  7. mmj_uk

    Capodecina

    Joined: Dec 26, 2003

    Posts: 23,626

    They did nothing wrong aside from preside over a banking collapse, if you go back to 2007 the Tory's were promising to match Labour's spending because there was nothing with it until the bailouts/quantitative easing etc started.

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6975536.stm

    Please stop with the Tory myth that Labour bankrupted the country which has enabled their agenda to destroy the welfare state and privatise everything dear to us.

    As an aside, the only reason UKIP are now popular and being promoted by the media as a genuine alternative is because the Lib Dems sold themselves out to the devil for power and without a 3rd party alternative Labour would have won the next election by a landslide, Murdoch and co. don't want that for obvious reasons and a lot of people who would have voted Labour out of disgust for the last 5 years will now jump on the UKIP bandwagon instead.
     
    Last edited: Jan 6, 2015
  8. RDM

    Capodecina

    Joined: Feb 1, 2007

    Posts: 20,293

    I would think that even the most staunch Labour supporter would struggle to say they did nothing wrong...
     
  9. Lytton

    Hitman

    Joined: Oct 25, 2014

    Posts: 567

    Greens. This is all.
     
  10. Xordium

    Capodecina

    Joined: Apr 8, 2009

    Posts: 12,702

    And most OCUK members won't admit they did something right. I didn't vote for them and wouldn't through choice but I do admit those early years they got spot on and let's face it they had to do something because what they took over from the Tories was a shambles.

    If we learned anything from New Labour it was the same lesson we learned from Thatcher - you still need change, no matter what you did at the start, and change doesn't include promoting some back-stabbing self-serving bloke who lived next door.
     
  11. Rroff

    Man of Honour

    Joined: Oct 13, 2006

    Posts: 66,898

    This area has always been strongly Libdem (Paddy Ashdown's home turf) quite a lot of the ~30 age group have voted that way due to that and/or inheriting their parents voting traditions - as I noted in my post this is something thats probably skewed to this area and maybe not representative nationally. (This area probably has a significant number of Libdem voters who don't actually have any political beliefs or interest of their own).

    That said some of the people I work with are actual proper paid up members of the Libdems and hold those kind of political beliefs and have historically taken the ***** out of Nigel Farage but seriously looking at UKIP this time around - they've lost a lot of faith in the Libdems due to how things have gone with the coalition.
     
  12. big_white_dog84

    Wise Guy

    Joined: Jan 8, 2004

    Posts: 1,183

    There is a very interesting possibility that there could be a labour / snp coalition with a majority on uk issues but minority on England only. The snp don't vote on England only bills, so labour would have to deliver these on their own. Could this end up with labour/ snp governing the uk and conservatives somehow dictating England only policies?
     
  13. Quartz

    Capodecina

    Joined: Apr 1, 2014

    Posts: 10,044

    Location: Aberdeen

    Voting Labour in Scotland may be the only way of defeating the SNP.
     
  14. Stretch

    Capodecina

    Joined: Feb 14, 2004

    Posts: 11,676

    Location: Peoples Republic of Histonia, Cambridge

    I can see him whipping out crafty saltire behind Ed during the post agreement photo shoot already :)

    I reality, there's probably more chance of Lab/Tory coalition that the Labour party spending more than 10 minutes in a room with the SNP.
     
    Last edited: Jan 7, 2015
  15. Domo

    Mobster

    Joined: Feb 11, 2004

    Posts: 4,497

    Location: Surrey, UK

    Political parties should be forced to proclaim their manifestos under oath - or at least the key parts which are likely to win significant numbers when the voting starts.
    I can't stand election campaigns - it's all BS.

    Pre-election fluff from the Tories last time:

    * No cuts to front-line services
    * Absolutely no plans to raise VAT
    * Cameron on child benefit: "I wouldn't means-test it"
    * NHS: "no more top-down reorganisations"
    * On Education Maintenance Allowances: "we don't have any plans to get rid of them"
    * Cameron on Sure Start: "Yes, we back Sure Start. It's a disgrace that Gordon Brown has been trying to frighten people about this"

    To name but a few - although some aren't strictly manifesto based, they're still lies told in the run up to the last general election.

    Having said all that, Conservatives are the only sane bet in the running. Can't afford to allow UKIP any ground and Labour... Ed Miliband leading the country?? Just no.
     
  16. Stretch

    Capodecina

    Joined: Feb 14, 2004

    Posts: 11,676

    Location: Peoples Republic of Histonia, Cambridge

  17. Trifid

    Sgarrista

    Joined: Feb 18, 2006

    Posts: 8,224

    I'd still place my bet on Conservatives getting more seats then Labour. For Ed to be PM he would need to get in bed with Salmond. SNP have signalled they will be wanting to partner with Labour.
     
  18. Sankari

    Capodecina

    Joined: Dec 29, 2007

    Posts: 24,342

    Location: Adelaide, South Australia

    * South East will vote Tory
    * London will vote Labour and Tory
    * South West will vote Lib Dem and Tory
    * Wales will vote Lib Dem
    * Midlands will vote Labour and Tory
    * North West will vote Labour
    * North East will vote Lib Dem
    * Scotland will vote Lib Dem
    * Northern Ireland will vote Labour

    Tories will win with a clear majority.

    UKIP will gain one extra seat and proclaim they are now Britain's preferred party of government. :rolleyes:
     
  19. grumpysculler

    Wise Guy

    Joined: Nov 23, 2009

    Posts: 1,195

    The SNP don't vote on England only bills at the moment. They will say anything and do anything to get power. I believe that will include propping up a minority Labour government in England.

    They staunchly oppose the so-called bedroom tax, yet they are asking parliamentary candidates if they would vote to support the bedroom tax were they whipped to do so as part of a coalition agreement.

    If nothing else, the SNP forcing through English laws would so rile those south of the border (and rightly so IMHO) that they wouldn't need to push for another referendum (once in a lifetime chance, they said!) as England and Wales would be gagging to kick us out!
     
  20. Tunney

    Capodecina

    Joined: Oct 11, 2004

    Posts: 14,549

    Location: London

    Labour did two things wrong in my eyes - they deregulated the banking industry too far and they supported the war in Iraq. The Tories would have done just the same if they'd been in power.

    The same can't be said for what Labour got right.