1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

General Election 2015

Discussion in 'Speaker's Corner' started by Stretch, Jan 5, 2015.

  1. Mr Jack

    Capodecina

    Joined: May 19, 2004

    Posts: 19,157

    Location: Nordfriesland, Germany

    Huh? That's not even supported by your own link.
     
  2. El Capitano

    Mobster

    Joined: Oct 18, 2002

    Posts: 2,577

    Slightly slower? Inflation hit 5% at one point! so, back to the question at hand, do you concede that the coalition cut spending or are you seriously going to stick to ignoring inflation?
     
  3. Dolph

    Man of Honour

    Joined: Oct 17, 2002

    Posts: 47,777

    Location: Plymouth

    Look at the 4th graph, draw a line based on the pre new labour trend, marvel at how far above trend the current values are. Really not difficult.

    Are you seriously going to suggest that public spending has to keep pace with consumer inflation? How much of public spending is spent directly on goods from the CPI basket?

    Yes, the coalition, after years of real terms increases I'm spending, has slowed, or cut if you prefer, the rate of increase in public spending to the point where real terms increases no longer happen.

    Perhaps if spending hadn't been increased so dramatically since 2002 it would not have been necessary to slow the rate of increase in spending?

    (Hint, refer to graph 4 again)
     
  4. Slam62

    Sgarrista

    Joined: Jan 3, 2006

    Posts: 7,573

    Location: Monaco

    I guess if we get deflation cutting spending in real terms becomes extremely difficult.

    Or have I got that the wrong way around.
     
  5. Dolph

    Man of Honour

    Joined: Oct 17, 2002

    Posts: 47,777

    Location: Plymouth

    That is the right way round, if we have deflation, then spending goes up in real terms for the same absolute value.
     
  6. El Capitano

    Mobster

    Joined: Oct 18, 2002

    Posts: 2,577

    Oh I'm sorry, do you have a better measurement of inflation? As far as I can tell, most economists use some measure of inflation for determining changes in spending, and I don't know of a better measurement available for the UK than CPI, especially since CPI is the official measurement of inflation the government themselves use.
    So, despite claiming it's easy to show spending hasn't been cut, you now concede that actually, spending has been cut, at least in real terms. Good.
    That's not the contention you replied to, so don't try shifting the goalposts on me.
     
  7. Mr Jack

    Capodecina

    Joined: May 19, 2004

    Posts: 19,157

    Location: Nordfriesland, Germany

    Try looking at graph 5. Not in real terms, which is the point.

    Well, yes, it does, and your second point is absurd. The CPI basket is a measure of how prices are going up in general. Government spending is affected by the same trends so any fall relative to inflation represents a cut.

    The most informative measure of spending is relative to GDP; try graphs 3 and 5.
     
  8. El Capitano

    Mobster

    Joined: Oct 18, 2002

    Posts: 2,577

    It's somewhat informative, but I'm not of the opinion that government spending necessarily has to stay at the same level relative to GDP.

    To be honest, looking at the figure in total is misleading, because it ignores changes in spending. For example, overall welfare spending has not changed that much, but pensions (and other benefits for the elderly) are taking up an ever-increasing slice of the pie, to the point where many areas of spending have seen very significant cuts indeed. This is not that surprising when you know the government has promised real-terms increases in state pensions for the duration of this parliament and the number of people of pension age is increasing, both in absolute terms and as a proportion of the population.

    Ultimately, even if overall spending was increasing in real terms, it still doesn't mean we're not in austerity, just that some groups aren't whereas other groups are made to suffer. Essentially, the poor and young are being made to pay for the old and rich.
     
  9. kitch9

    Soldato

    Joined: Aug 13, 2008

    Posts: 6,520

    Write all the walls of text you want in the delusion that you have all the answers whilst apparently having none but spending as in the amount of pounds actually spent has not fallen.

    Seriously fella your post answers a different question completely, wrongly at that. I'm not sure what quoting gcse basic economics has to do with anything?

    Government spending is one of a number of fiscal levers that can be pulled depending on the needs of the economy, the problem we potentially had was that we couldn't pull some of the levers without others going the other way. There was the risk that if we pulled the spending lever for instance that the interest rate lever would go in the wrong direction which would have negated any gains and more.
     
    Last edited: Apr 5, 2015
  10. JeditOjanen

    Soldato

    Joined: Feb 7, 2011

    Posts: 5,191

    Better than writing blunt statements that other people are wrong with nothing to justify them.

    In short: show your working.
     
  11. kitch9

    Soldato

    Joined: Aug 13, 2008

    Posts: 6,520

    What working? Government spending is one fiscal lever in amongst many other fiscal levers. What do you want me to say?

    It's already been posted that the amount of Government spending has not dropped by someone other than me.
     
  12. Nevakonaza

    Mobster

    Joined: Jan 7, 2009

    Posts: 4,948

    Location: Stourbridge,West Mids.

    Haven't they always?..This is what i like about Nigel Farage he pretty much gives decent and true answers to everything,Hes not afraid to say the truth...we need someone in charge that has balls.

    The main points of concearn to me are the following.

    • 0 hours working contracts - These should not be allowed.
    • Immigration & Getting out of the EU.
    • Wages - Why is it in 2015 often young people cannot afford their own place to rent even if they have a full time job.. even if they can its a VERY hard struggle..its pathetic.
     
    Last edited: Apr 5, 2015
  13. V F

    Capodecina

    Joined: Aug 13, 2003

    Posts: 16,754

    Location: UK

    Seen the latest story?

     
  14. kitch9

    Soldato

    Joined: Aug 13, 2008

    Posts: 6,520

    Deleted
     
    Last edited: Apr 6, 2015
  15. kitch9

    Soldato

    Joined: Aug 13, 2008

    Posts: 6,520

    Sigh of course zero hours contracts should be allowed, some people actually want casual hours.

    Not everyone is the same.

    Young people just starting their career have always had to work to prove themselves and learn a trade, are you saying that shouldn't happen?
     
  16. Dolph

    Man of Honour

    Joined: Oct 17, 2002

    Posts: 47,777

    Location: Plymouth

    Do you concede spending has continued to rise in absolute terms?

    I will happily conceded that spending increases are less than inflation.
     
  17. Dolph

    Man of Honour

    Joined: Oct 17, 2002

    Posts: 47,777

    Location: Plymouth

    Graph 5 is not real terms adjusted :confused:, graphs 4, 6 and 7 are. You may also want to check the x axis on these graphs. Graph 5 is spending as a percentage of GDP, more on that in a second.

    A failure to increase at the same rate as inflation is not a cut. Spending is still going up.

    I disagree, this implies that there must be an increase in absolute government spending when output increases. Unless you take the ideological position that the state has a responsibility to redistribute wealth, this is blatant nonsense, even more so than demanding state spending keeps pace with a basket of goods from a shop that the money isn't spent on.
     
  18. El Capitano

    Mobster

    Joined: Oct 18, 2002

    Posts: 2,577

    Sure, but who actually discusses absolute terms? Pretty much everyone with a clue discusses in real terms, because inflation exists, you know. Or are you one of those types bleating that the deficit hasn't halved?
     
    Last edited: Apr 6, 2015
  19. Dolph

    Man of Honour

    Joined: Oct 17, 2002

    Posts: 47,777

    Location: Plymouth

    Given that debt is accrued and paid back in absolutes, it would seem a better measure when discussing the scale of the problem and the nature of the solution. I would quite happily support the notion that the deficit hasn't halved under the coalition as this was a relative measure (although not a real terms one).

    The problem with relative measures is that they can change due to unrelated factors. Debt and the deficit, taken as relative measures, vary significantly with GDP and GDP growth, but the amount of money being added or required to pay back does not, and that is without the feedback loop of including public spending in GDP.

    It is important to consider all measures, not just one, when looking at a problem and potential solutions. The coalition didn't cut spending, they slowed the rate of increase and allowed inflation and GDP growth to improve the both the absolute and relative figures through increased tax activity and GDP improvements. A small but important distinction.
     
  20. Outcast

    Mobster

    Joined: Jan 25, 2008

    Posts: 2,910

    Location: Peterboro, Distro:Ubuntu