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General Election 2015

Discussion in 'Speaker's Corner' started by Stretch, Jan 5, 2015.

  1. Mr Jack

    Capodecina

    Joined: May 19, 2004

    Posts: 18,007

    Location: Kiel, Germany

    I'd be very surprised if that happens. The Tories might win on popular vote but the current nature of the manner in which votes get translated into seats means that the Tories need a hefty lead to win more seats and there's little or no sign of them making the gains they'd need to do that.
     
  2. Terminal_Boy

    Sgarrista

    Joined: Apr 13, 2013

    Posts: 7,673

    Location: La France

    I'm struggling to think of anything that they did get right...
     
  3. Stretch

    Capodecina

    Joined: Feb 14, 2004

    Posts: 11,696

    Location: Peoples Republic of Histonia, Cambridge

    Yes, but the Labour party getting into bed with the SNP would likely require unacceptable concessions. It's a trap to make the political situation so untennable, that it pushes Scotland and rUK apart beyond the point of return. The SNP have already stated they want... an end to austerity, no renewal of Trident, and significantly more devolved powers than has been recommended by the Smith report.

    If the Labour party agree to these demands, the long term consequences could be fairly catastrophic for them.
     
    Last edited: Jan 7, 2015
  4. Mr Jack

    Capodecina

    Joined: May 19, 2004

    Posts: 18,007

    Location: Kiel, Germany

    Those are an interesting set of predictions. What are you basing them on?
     
  5. JeditOjanen

    Mobster

    Joined: Feb 7, 2011

    Posts: 4,851

    Er, no. The SNP staunchly oppose the Bedroom Tax in public, but in private they support it. I'll refer people once again to the minutes of the full Aberdeenshire Council meeting of November 2013, where the LDs proposed petitioning Holyrood for the same Bedroom Tax relief as was already being given to SNP-controlled councils and the SNP minority unanimously opposed the motion. They are power-mad bigots.

    As for the Tories: if Cameron gets a second term, by 2020 there will no longer be an NHS. If you have any kind of medical condition, or a family member who does, and you vote Tory, then you are voting against your best interests. As is anyone on less than £80,000 a year or who doesn't already own their own home, of course.
     
  6. Sankari

    Capodecina

    Joined: Dec 29, 2007

    Posts: 24,391

    Location: Adelaide, South Australia

    They replaced Blair with Brown... oh wait. :p

    Voting pattern of the 2010 general election.

    I doubt voters are keen to see Labour back in again so soon, and I think they've had enough of the coalition.

    Tories to win; Labour to gain a few seats; Lib Dems to suffer; UKIP to remain irrelevant.
     
  7. Terminal_Boy

    Sgarrista

    Joined: Apr 13, 2013

    Posts: 7,673

    Location: La France

    I'm going with Tory majority government, Labour in opposition, LibDems disappear with UKIP becoming the "3rd option" in UK politics.
     
  8. eatcustard

    Mobster

    Joined: Feb 20, 2010

    Posts: 4,504

    Location: Darkest Worcestershire

    My guess will be a Tory and UKIP Gov

    Labour will lose seats in Scotland but may gain a few in England
    Libdems will lose 75% of its seats
    UKIP will get about 20 seats
    Torys will gain a few seats
    Greens will lose its seat
    SNP to gain most of labours seats

    Immigration and Europe will be the hot topics
     
  9. Sankari

    Capodecina

    Joined: Dec 29, 2007

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    How can UKIP become the third option in UK politics this year when they've only gained a single seat in the past 19 years?
     
  10. eatcustard

    Mobster

    Joined: Feb 20, 2010

    Posts: 4,504

    Location: Darkest Worcestershire

    2 seats
     
  11. Terminal_Boy

    Sgarrista

    Joined: Apr 13, 2013

    Posts: 7,673

    Location: La France

    Because LibDems will have zero seats after this year's GE?
     
  12. grumpysculler

    Wise Guy

    Joined: Nov 23, 2009

    Posts: 1,195

    That isn't so much support for bedroom tax as an attempt to screw up any council that they don't control. Scorched earth politics.

    Agreed.
     
  13. Mr Jack

    Capodecina

    Joined: May 19, 2004

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    That's highly unlikely, most credible predictions give them between 20 and 30 seats. While their vote share will collapse it will remain concentrated in various constituencies where their "incumbency bonus" will see them over the line backed by a number of tactical voters. Lord Ashton's constituency polling is particularly revealing on this front.
     
  14. PlacidCasual

    Soldato

    Joined: May 13, 2003

    Posts: 6,236

    If I remember correctly you can't even vote Labour in NI as they don't contest any elections there. At one time you weren't offered the opportunity of joining the party in NI.
     
  15. Mr Jack

    Capodecina

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    Location: Kiel, Germany

    I sincerely hope you're wrong about this. It would be spectacularly absurd to get bogged down in these sideshows at a time when our country has real problems.
     
  16. ElliorR

    Sgarrista

    Joined: Feb 20, 2009

    Posts: 8,690

    Location: Not where I'd like to be

    I, a lifelong Labour supporter, became very disillusioned with Blairs leadership despite the optimism at the start. Milliband is a terrible leader and I'd never vote for Labour under his leadership, and after Blair I may never vote labour again.

    My vote now goes to the Green Party. Ok, I don't support all their views, I am a supporter of nuclear power, but they do hold a lot of my views.
     
  17. wazza300

    Caporegime

    Joined: Jul 11, 2009

    Posts: 27,065

    Location: BenefitStreetBirmingham

    labour for me evertime,and I also agree miliband is poor leader but still better than the **** cameron
     
  18. Mercenary Keyboard Warrior

    Capodecina

    Joined: Aug 4, 2007

    Posts: 10,275

    Location: Wilds of suffolk

    I see a repeat of the current government to be honest, and I actually hope so as to me its the best we could get. Whilst I would vote tory typically I think they would be too extreme and they are well tempered by the Libdems.

    I find it amusing that Labour voters make out like during the Blair/Brown years had there been no banking crash we would have been fine. They should take a look at the spending on welfare alone to see seeds were being planted that were going to be painful when they fruited. Lets not forget the end of boom and bust ;) and the sheer number of people added into public sector towards the end of their term. To me this was key, trying to shore up the mess by getting people into public jobs.

    This election is going to be facing a very different situation to what would have been expected 5 years ago. I don't think anyone would have predicted that we (I mean globally) would still be facing weak growth and stalled living standards.
    No one seems to have had a brainwave policy that has made a difference, I think it just has to run its course. I don't think it would have been any better under any other approach, it could have been worse though as in we could have done more brown and borrowed more for "growth" today pain down the road.

    Unless there is a significant drop in fringe votes, and most of them go to one of the main parties I can see it being very hard to form a meaningful government. If Labour do end up forming a coalition with SNP to gain power, and in doing so need to reverse then non-voting by Scottish MPs on English matters, I see a spectacular backlash the election after with a landslide tory majority from England, and that giving enough impetus to really push the changes to voting that make it much much harder for Labour to win again.
     
  19. big_white_dog84

    Wise Guy

    Joined: Jan 8, 2004

    Posts: 1,183

    I would vote for the existing coalition if that was an option. I dislike the conservatives deeply - but I don't think Ed Milliband is PM material either. The lib dems stop the worst side of the Tories appearing as legislation and the combination seems to have the economy more or less on the right track.
     
  20. muon

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    Joined: Nov 8, 2006

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    Location: London

    If people were upset at the coalition with the Tories, surely they'll all vote Labour/Green which will mean the Tories will lose control?