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General Election 2019

Discussion in 'Speaker's Corner' started by koolpc, Sep 3, 2019.

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  1. RedvGreen

    Mobster

    Joined: Dec 2, 2009

    Posts: 3,871

    Location: Midlands

    Neither side truly want a election:

    1. They don't want the blame for Brexit to be placed at their feet;
    2. They both aren't wholly confident they could win on their terms (read: need a coalition);
    3. They know Brexit is going to be terrible, and frankly they just want to push enough buttons for someone else to do something about it and make it go away.

    The Lib Dems have lined themselves up perfectly to revoke A50, and take the blame. Such an act may damage their party further in the eyes of the Leavers, and also some Remainers (some are conflicted over misinterpretations of 'democracy' and 'will of the people').
     
  2. Jono8

    Caporegime

    Joined: May 20, 2007

    Posts: 29,023

    Location: Surrey

    I think the Lib Dem plan is clever in all honesty.

    They only had pretty meagre support at the last election, and i don't think they give a **** about the leavers votes. They will never get them so its pointless even trying.

    There is zero point in taking the positions of the other parties on brexit. The country doesn't need another party that can't make up its mind on whether it wants brexit or not, or how brexit should happen.

    I respect them being totally and unashamedly for revoking article 50 and stopping brexit.

    Remainer votes though (which is about half the country, based on the referendum) are up for grabs and they are going to take a LOT of them. This is based not only on the polls, but my own family,friends and acquaintances. My dad for example (a life long Tory voter) voted remain and is so disillusioned with the Tory party now, that he has said he will never vote for them again. He also cannot stand Corbyn. He will be voting for the Lib Dems. I know others who think the same, and juding by how well the Lib Dems are polling i imagine this is the sentiment across the country.
     
  3. StriderX

    Capodecina

    Joined: Mar 18, 2008

    Posts: 21,539


    I think there will come a point where the Lib Dems hit a particular number and then the cautionaries who think "wasted vote" will fall over themselves to shift over, dunno what that number is though. Labour voters wont realistically switch i feel, too much Jo "Tory" Swinson keeping them from overcoming the bias, they already have most of the Centre-right Labour anyway (surely?).
     
  4. JeditOjanen

    Mobster

    Joined: Feb 7, 2011

    Posts: 4,493

    The Lib Dem plan is abject idiocy and currently the only thing giving Boris any chance of getting his No Deal Brexit. Tories are never going to vote for Labour anyway.
     
  5. FoxEye

    Capodecina

    Joined: Feb 17, 2006

    Posts: 20,967

    Location: Cornwall

    What makes you say that? They are projected to do quite well in an imminent election.
     
  6. dowie

    Caporegime

    Joined: Jan 29, 2008

    Posts: 42,605

    Comrade Corbyn is the one doing that, he's the only one blocking a unity government at the moment by letting his personal ambitions of becoming PM get in the way of appointing a caretaker PM.
     
  7. platypus

    Caporegime

    Joined: Jul 25, 2003

    Posts: 38,971

    Location: Rhône-Alpes+Cambridge

    No it wouldn't. Politicians pretend they're accountable when it suits them, but look at what he's gotten away with so far? There is no way he would go to jail for that, just no way.
     
  8. platypus

    Caporegime

    Joined: Jul 25, 2003

    Posts: 38,971

    Location: Rhône-Alpes+Cambridge

    It's a combination of the tax avoidance directives and the EU rejection of TTIP.
     
  9. Mr Jack

    Capodecina

    Joined: May 19, 2004

    Posts: 17,260

    Location: Kiel, Germany

    Which new tax avoidance and money laundering rules are coming in on 1st January 2020? The EU's Anti Tax Avoidance directive came into force on 1st January this year and I can't find any other EU law's due to come into force next year.
     
  10. Jono8

    Caporegime

    Joined: May 20, 2007

    Posts: 29,023

    Location: Surrey

    This.

    They need someone who clearly has no interest in being PM long term to have a sort of inherent trust from the other parties. Corbyn is not that person.

    It should be someone like Ken Clarke who would have no real ambition to sit in no.10 and who has the experience and respect of the chamber.
     
  11. Mercenary Keyboard Warrior

    Sgarrista

    Joined: Aug 4, 2007

    Posts: 9,730

    Location: Wilds of suffolk

    What they need to do is have the VONC and pass it.
    Allow JC to try to form a government, as historically he would have been first dibs to.
    He will either get the votes or not
    If he does great well done JC, or if its the more likely case then someone else can try. Its not a one off thing, there is a 14 day period for anyone to convince the queen they can form a working government, unless clearly all main parties agree they cannot.
     
  12. 413x

    Capodecina

    Joined: Jan 13, 2010

    Posts: 16,342

    Location: Cardiff

    Did the party alignment quiz.
    Got green or libdem fairly high

    The Labour
    Then Conservative (a lot lower )
    Scum party ( a lot lower again)

    Pretty much what I thought
     
  13. Greebo

    Caporegime

    Joined: Jan 20, 2005

    Posts: 32,202

    Location: Co Durham

    Has this been updated to reflect Labour's and Conservatives current political positions? Last time I did it I got Tory followed by LD. But that was before the Tories swung way right and Labour swung way left.

    Just taken the "Imwith" test. Surprised.

    94% LD
    93% Green
    92% Labour
    79% Conservative.

    Definitely I am no longer Tory in my views (or the current Tory party anyway)
     
    Last edited: Oct 3, 2019
  14. JeditOjanen

    Mobster

    Joined: Feb 7, 2011

    Posts: 4,493

    That's because they haven't caused No Deal yet. There's still time for them to come around. But their popularity surge is purely down to wanting to stop Brexit. If we go into an election where No Deal Brexit happened on October 31st because Boris refused to seek an extension and the Lib Dems blocked Corbyn as a unity candidate for caretaker who would seek one, then they will be obliterated. We all saw what happened when they betrayed their election pledges to sign up with the Tories; imagine what will happen if they do it again, on a far more important issue, and before the election.
     
  15. Mercenary Keyboard Warrior

    Sgarrista

    Joined: Aug 4, 2007

    Posts: 9,730

    Location: Wilds of suffolk

    Interesting views by a polls commentator I was listening to

    Tories when opposition are split. Normally this will mean great for them, dilution of the opposition will mean they should win.
    But the view was that BXP will normally be after the same seats as the tories and risks them losing where they would have won.

    In regards the opposition, he said that the split opposition is maybe not so much a factor in this scenario. The LDs and Labour don't tend to be strong in the same places so they are not really in some ways splitting the vote.
    To demonstrate this he said of the top 100 LD target seats, only 14 Labour and 86 Tory, and of the top 100 labour target seats, 0 are LD, all Tory. he said Labour tend to be strongest in poorer more northern seats and Lds in wealthier or southern seats. Maybe a bit of a generalisation here I guess.

    Basically it sounds like all bets are off. It would seem the BXP are the disruptors, if they can somehow persuade the tories to do deals they may take some Labour seats, but if they cant they run the risk of the opposite taking effect, the tories losing seats they would normally win, and not to the BXP but to either labour or LDs.
    He didnt mention the SNP, but from what I have seen most of them are looking likely to flip away from Tories to either LD or SNP.
     
  16. StriderX

    Capodecina

    Joined: Mar 18, 2008

    Posts: 21,539

    The Tory's can't do "deals" as it would be seen as making the party discredited and no longer credible to hold the maximum available seats. It would also just end up with other parties working together, ultimately descending us into a quagmire that is unlikely to give us a legitimate result.

    This election, whenever it occurs, will be extremely regionalised. The fact is that there are a die hard in BP that will no longer vote Tory regardless (thanks to totally intelligent rhetoric that doesn't backfire), and there's such a fluid proportion supporting the Tories currently that it could mean the Tories end 4th in the election if the circumstances are right.
     
    Last edited: Oct 3, 2019
  17. krooton

    Caporegime

    Joined: May 9, 2004

    Posts: 25,358

    Location: Leafy outskirts of London

    Did my deep-dive ISideWith

    Lib Dem 88%
    Labour 87%
    Green 86%
    Tory 76%
    UKIP 64%
     
  18. 413x

    Capodecina

    Joined: Jan 13, 2010

    Posts: 16,342

    Location: Cardiff

    Hard remainers have a clear choice. Lib. Especially anyone who is centre.

    Really ,the main thing holding them back is the 'wasted vote' stuff
    More polls that come out will help snowball them to more and more credibility

    Corbyn is doing the lib dems so many favours
     
  19. a1ex2001

    Capodecina

    Joined: Mar 14, 2005

    Posts: 11,714

    Location: Here and There...

    JC has single handedly done more for the revival of the lib dems than anything else they have gone from a burning corpse to potentially the best election result for them in recent history.
     
  20. chroniclard

    Capodecina

    Joined: Apr 23, 2014

    Posts: 13,109

    Location: Hertfordshire

    89% Green
    86% LD
    85% Labour
    68% Tories
    53% Raving Looney Party
     
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