Poll: General election voting poll round 3

Voting intentions in the General Election?

  • Alliance Party of Northern Ireland

    Votes: 2 0.3%
  • Conservative

    Votes: 286 40.5%
  • Democratic Unionist Party

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Green Party

    Votes: 56 7.9%
  • Labour

    Votes: 122 17.3%
  • Liberal Democrats

    Votes: 33 4.7%
  • Not voting/will spoil ballot

    Votes: 38 5.4%
  • Other party (not named)

    Votes: 4 0.6%
  • Plaid Cymru

    Votes: 5 0.7%
  • Respect Party

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Scottish National Party

    Votes: 29 4.1%
  • Social Democratic and Labour Party

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Sinn Fein

    Votes: 3 0.4%
  • UKIP

    Votes: 129 18.2%

  • Total voters
    707
  • Poll closed .
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Why do people hate the snp so much?

It's the Bret Hart factor, which for those who didn't follow the WWF in the 90's, means that I don't need to hate your country in order to annoy/irritate you, I just need to really like mine.


Except this isn't factually true.

It is, as proven historically, I did explain how it works with a non literal example :)
 
If it's been proven historically then I look forward to reading 'proof' that you'll provide to back up your assertion.

This ones American but MW/CoL works the same there and here:

History Shows Wage Hikes = Higher Inflation

I pulled every minimum-wage increase in America back to 1938, the year the first minimum wage was instituted, then cross-referenced those wage hikes with the monthly change in the inflation rate over the next one and two years following the initial wage hike … as well as what inflation looked like in the year prior to the wage hike.

The results are quite interesting. They show that, contrary to the puffery I hear from lots of economists today, inflation does, in fact, correlate with minimum-wage increases – especially when wage hikes are large and occur after a long stretch of stagnant wages.

http://thesovereigninvestor.com/economic-collapse-2/raise-minimum-wage-raise-cost-living/
 

A reputable source if ever I saw one, I like how he doesn't give any of the figures he used, just expects us to take his word for it.

It's far too simplistic to say minimum wage increase results in inflation, for example, inflation is currently 0% while the minimum wage went up by 3% last year. Equally if you froze the minimum wage for a year then inflation would still happen. Sure, by putting more money in the pockets of low income workers, you're generating more demand which may have an impact on prices if supply can't keep up - that isn't a reason not to do it however.
 
A reputable source if ever I saw one

He's actually quite respected, having written numerous books on economics which have sold well.


I like how he doesn't give any of the figures he used, just expects us to take his word for it.

He says what the data he used was, and gives detailed results figures, surely you can see that's a LOT of source data and the wouldn't have been room to include it.

I.E When somebody says they took data from an ONS census they don't list every name on the census.


It's far too simplistic to say minimum wage increase results in inflation

Except for the fact it's been shown that minimum wage increases result in inflation (either that or aliens are increasing inflation every time the minimum wage rises).
 
Minimum wage does raise prices, but its not a strong forcing factor on inflation.

It also effects prices of goods unequally. Stuff made in China in bulk is unlikely to be effected for instance, but rent will be.
 
He's actually quite respected, having written numerous books on economics which have sold well.

Respected by whom? His website looked like an attack site on Obama and any progressive economic thinking, so I'm guessing Tea Party/conspiracy nuts.

He says what the data he used was, and gives detailed results figures, surely you can see that's a LOT of source data and the wouldn't have been room to include it.

I.E When somebody says they took data from an ONS census they don't list every name on the census.

You would at least say that you've used data from the 2011 ONS census - your guy doesn't say where he pulled his data from. All he has to do is provide the % minimum wage increase and the % CoL increase for 80 years - it's not that much data. I've seen these two values plotted together, there's no correlation so why he says there is is beyond me, especially when he backs this assertion up with no evidence at all.

Except for the fact it's been shown that minimum wage increases result in inflation (either that or aliens are increasing inflation every time the minimum wage rises).

No it hasn't. There are other factors behind changes in inflation - not least oil prices.
 
The SNP-scarecrow seems to be all the Tories have left and they're not even making any kind of clear argument there. It seems to be 'SNP scary'->?->'Vote Tory'. You might need a little more information in the middle there because the clearest way to weaken the SNP in government is to vote in more Labour MPs.

The Tories are in serious danger of sinking the union.

in September he begged them to stay

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...tional-plea-for-scotland-to-stay-9734838.html

now he says they shouldnt have a say.....politician in being hyprcrticial shocker
 
I've seen these two values plotted together, there's no correlation so why he says there is is beyond me, especially when he backs this assertion up with no evidence at all.

He lists the figures for the correlation, isn't that backing up an assertion? (yes).

In case you only read the first paragraph:

On an average basis, inflation in the first 12 months following an initial minimum-wage increase was 1.3 percentage points higher than it was the 12 months prior to the wage hike. After two years, inflation was 2.5 percentage points higher. In some instances, inflation was up by as little as 1.4% within the first year … and by as much as 11.2% in the second year. And when I look at just the years in which the minimum wage rose more than 20% – as is the case this time around – the inflation rate spiked sharply by the second year.

No matter how I slice the data, though, the one- and two-year inflation rates topped the rate in the year prior to the wage increase in nearly every instance, which implies that some correlation clearly exists between the two – that, on some level, minimum-wage increases are a leading indicator of unexpectedly higher inflation in the offing.
 
He lists the figures for the correlation, isn't that backing up an assertion? (yes).

In case you only read the first paragraph:

/sigh - no, that's his analysis of the figures, but if we're to not simply take his word that things are as they are then we need to challenge that analysis. The statement you quoted is meaningless, it can be basically summarised as 'there is inflation every year'.
 
/sigh - no, that's his analysis of the figures, but if we're to not simply take his word that things are as they are then we need to challenge that analysis. The statement you quoted is meaningless, it can be basically summarised as 'there is inflation every year'.

I was looking for the same thing, where is the comparing to years without a,minimum wage rise, where is the statistical analysis to show a significant difference to the background trend?
 
http://www.theguardian.com/politics...ion-to-tackle-migrant-deaths-in-mediterranean

Farage saying what most reasonable minded people are thinking about the Mediterranian Boat People crisis. It will be an enormous betrayal of this country if Cameron does some sort of deal that ends up with the UK taking some of these people.

It will be an enormous failure for mankind if we dont take some of those people and pay a share of the costs in savings innocent peoples lives.
 
No you're completely correct, minimum wage and cost of living are linked, raise MW and CoL goes up (sadly the reverse isn't true.

A very simple (non literal) explanation for this: A mechanic gets a raise, hes happy as he now has more money, but that money has to come from somewhere which means his employer must raise prices, soon the mechanic receives a note from the milkman explaining that due to increasing vehicle maintenance costs the price of milk is going up. The next day he finds the price of bread up because the cost of maintaining the delivery trucks has risen, and so on.

It's a very simple example example and shouldn't be taken literally, but that is basically how it works just on a massive scale with many jobs/trades and products/services involved (this is why striking for more money never achieved anything).



What you tend to ignore is a say 10% increase in MW won't increase the product price 10% and even if it did that wouldn't increase allrpducts and services by 10% and wouldn't increase inflation by 10%. The real world Increase will be inflation between 0% and barely statistically significant.
 
Except for the fact it's been shown that minimum wage increases result in inflation (either that or aliens are increasing inflation every time the minimum wage rises).
The minimum wage will have a minor impact on inflation, but as wage costs are only a proportion of the total cost of goods & services the increase in the end cost of goods is significantly less than the rise of wages at the bottom end.

More-so when you factor in inflation is linked highly to the cost of oil & energy - two factors which have a minority of staff on minimum wage & that raw material costs result in significantly lower wage costs as a proportion of total expenditure.

A theoretical increase of 10% on the national minimum wage would not result in a 10% increase in the cost to produce goods.

Wage costs are a proportion of total costs.
Only a percentage of staff in a given organisation are on minimum wage.

From an earlier thread.

"An increase in the wages for the population increases demand & allows for greater expansions & economic activity. There is also the fact that an increase in the minimum wage will increase total wage costs by that amount, but people seem to forget that wage costs of minimum wage employees do not account for 100% of the total costs to produce goods or provide a service.

"Total labor costs, or percentage of gross revenues spent on payroll, vary dramatically by industry. Highly automated oil refineries and semiconductor plants might have labor costs of less than 10 percent, whereas restaurants average around 30 percent labor costs. Retail businesses generally have higher labor costs, usually at least 10 percent and ranging up to 15 to 20 percent. According to the Food Marketing Institute, the average U.S. food retail business had total labor costs of 14.6 percent of sales in 2007"

While these figures are from US studies, the trends should be indicative of ours - with a key point being that not all staff for these organisations are in-fact on the minimum wage to begin with.

It's a percentage of total staffs costs, which is percentage of total turnover. A 10% increase in the minimum wage will in no way increase total prices by 10%.

So assuming a business spends 20% of the total turnover on staff costs a 10% increase in minimum wage would result in a total net increase of 2% in costs (in reality it would less due to a number of staff already surpassing the minimum wage)"

Also.

"I would indeed be higher for a living wage increase of say 40%.

But that would increase the cost of goods by the same proportion. To give a another example, assuming the cost of wages for a business is 20% of total turnover (a higher than average estimate).

If they wanted to to a flat 40% wage increase (your higher estimate), at that absolute most it would increase the cost of goods by at most 8%. In reality it would be lower of course as a percentage of the staff for a given business are on more than a living wage. The other aspect would be the increase in sales from the people who are now able to participate in the local economy.

A 40% wage increase for the poorest in society would be off-set by a minor increase in goods for everybody else, but with the added advantage the government can reduce it's expenditure on tax credits & top ups."
 
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in September he begged them to stay

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...tional-plea-for-scotland-to-stay-9734838.html

now he says they shouldnt have a say.....politician in being hyprcrticial shocker

So supporting the union of England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland means you must also support a Scottish only party having 50% of the power in West Minister?

Sorry, I don't see any hypocrisy in wanting to keep the UK together but not wanting a far-left party from one of those countries in power.

You can love Scotland and hate the SNP you know.
 
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